Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1144 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms from the morning have continued to
move across northeast Kansas this afternoon supported by outflow
boundaries and ample buoyancy.  With PWATS near two inches and slow
storm motion, this convection displayed efficient rain rates with
some areas seeing over an inch and a half an hour.  Even with the
slow movement across northeast Kansas, soils have been so dry that
flash flooding was not observed with afternoon storms.  Did have to
lower some high temperatures today where cloud cover lasted the
longest with highs ranging from the mid 80s in far northeast
Kansas into the 90s in central Kansas. Some scattered storms have
also developed behind this line of storms in north central Kansas
and expect these storms to remain scattered and move north into
Nebraska this evening. If any of these storms do tap into
unmodified air, damaging winds or small hail would be the main
hazards (mainly in north central Kansas).

For tonight, the inverted trough axis currently located across west
central Kansas into north central Kansas will drift into north
central Kansas overnight before stalling out tomorrow.  Storms will
form along this boundary late this afternoon and form into an MCS in
western Kansas propagating eastward towards the CWA.  Short term
guidance has been backing off on the timing for precipitation to
enter north central Kansas with most models entering this area after
10pm.  Over the past couple runs the HRRR has tended to greatly
weaken/dissipate this MCS as it moves into northeast Kansas, but
have continued with PoPs through the early morning to account for
the NAM which brings precipitation across the entirety of northeast
Kansas by early morning.  The main hazards with this MCS would be
damaging wind gusts, with this threat mainly limited to north
central Kansas.  Similar to this afternoon, there is also a threat
for heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.  Have held
off on a flood watch for now due to the scattered nature of storms
later this afternoon and lack of confidence on how storms will hold
together overnight.

Wednesday is another one of the days where what happens in the
morning will impact what evolves during the rest of the day.  The
surface boundary Wednesday afternoon looks to be located across the
CWA with the warm sector generally in central, east central, and
northeast Kansas.  Another day of high CAPE low shear exists and if
storms can form in the afternoon hours near the boundary, there
could be some damaging winds or small hail possible.  Temperatures
tomorrow do look to be slightly cooler with highs in the low to mid-
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

The upper trough Wednesday night deepens as it drifts southeast
from eastern Nebraska to eastern Missouri by Thursday night. Any
storms Wednesday/Wednesday night will weaken during the overnight
hours before more chances for precipitation occur Thursday as the
surface low moves east and out of central Plains. With the earlier
passage of the front Wednesday night, temperatures Thursday look
to be cool topping out in the mid to upper 70s. A brief period of
dry weather will occur Friday morning into the afternoon, but from
Friday evening through the end of the period, there look to be
sporadic chances for precipitation across the CWA. Subtle waves in
the flow over central Plains take place over the weekend before a
stronger mid-level trough moves towards Kansas Monday night.
Although temperatures warm up after Thursday and Friday, they tend
to stay near climatology through the weekend only reaching into
the upper 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

For the 06Z TAFs, gust front has made it through KMHK with showers
and storms with the initial line dissipating. Therefore, have
further delayed VCTS into the terminals for the 06Z TAFs. Second
area of storms is showing some indication of breaking apart as
well. With a rather weak LLJ expected to continue to veer and
weaken overnight, still have some concern that showers and storms
make a run at the terminals overnight especially KMHK. Short-term
guidance continues to suggest the trend will be to weaken
convection as it advances east with KMHK the best shot at
receiving impacts. Again, timing and coverage is low confidence.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
318 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-202030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
318 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

There is the potential for severe thunderstorms mainly late
afternoon and this evening in north central Kansas, with the
primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rainfall
is also possible which could result in flash flooding.

Thunderstorms are also possible overnight with the potential for
some damaging wind gusts with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1027 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

KSZ022-035>037-200400-
Geary-Dickinson-Riley-Morris-
1027 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DICKINSON...GEARY...
SOUTHWESTERN RILEY AND NORTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM
CDT...

At 1025 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking the leading edge of an
area of strong winds along a line extending from 4 miles northeast
of Milford to 5 miles north of Hope to near Gypsum. Thunderstorms
will overspread the area after the strong winds arrive. Movement
of this activity was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Junction City, Herington, Ogden, Grandview Plaza, White City,
Milford, Hope, Woodbine, Carlton, Latimer and Milford Lake.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 291 and 305.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
central and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3882 9737 3876 9716 3901 9694 3924 9695
      3922 9675 3892 9664 3870 9672 3860 9693
      3861 9693 3861 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 271DEG 38KT 3922 9686 3877 9708 3872 9740

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1054 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

KSZ009-010-022-023-200445-
Pottawatomie-Riley-Washington-Marshall-
1054 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RILEY...POTTAWATOMIE...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1054 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Marysville to 8 miles north of Randolph to
3 miles southwest of Riley. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Marysville, Blue Rapids, Westmoreland, Blaine, Riley,
Frankfort, Waterville, St. George, Leonardville, Axtell, Olsburg,
Beattie, Randolph, Barnes, Vermillion, Wheaton, Lillis, Keats and
Tuttle Creek Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3987 9624 3957 9624 3957 9620 3942 9618
      3913 9644 3924 9696 3934 9696 3960 9688
      3988 9690
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 296DEG 28KT 3984 9669 3954 9671 3925 9687

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1056 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

KSZ022-035>038-200445-
Wabaunsee-Geary-Dickinson-Riley-Morris-
1056 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DICKINSON...GEARY...
SOUTHERN RILEY...MORRIS AND WEST CENTRAL WABAUNSEE COUNTIES UNTIL
1145 PM CDT...

At 1055 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles south of Keats to 7 miles northwest of
White City to 4 miles northwest of Tampa. Movement was southeast at
30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Manhattan, Junction City, Herington, Council Grove,
Ogden, Grandview Plaza, White City, Alta Vista, Hope, Dwight,
Woodbine, Wilsey, Parkerville, Latimer, Council Grove Lake and
Burdick.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 293 and 319.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
central and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3861 9693 3861 9727 3891 9692 3922 9685
      3913 9643 3872 9645 3852 9665 3852 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0355Z 294DEG 27KT 3917 9670 3887 9684 3861 9719

Cohen

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