Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
637 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms from the morning have continued to
move across northeast Kansas this afternoon supported by outflow
boundaries and ample buoyancy.  With PWATS near two inches and slow
storm motion, this convection displayed efficient rain rates with
some areas seeing over an inch and a half an hour.  Even with the
slow movement across northeast Kansas, soils have been so dry that
flash flooding was not observed with afternoon storms.  Did have to
lower some high temperatures today where cloud cover lasted the
longest with highs ranging from the mid 80s in far northeast
Kansas into the 90s in central Kansas. Some scattered storms have
also developed behind this line of storms in north central Kansas
and expect these storms to remain scattered and move north into
Nebraska this evening. If any of these storms do tap into
unmodified air, damaging winds or small hail would be the main
hazards (mainly in north central Kansas).

For tonight, the inverted trough axis currently located across west
central Kansas into north central Kansas will drift into north
central Kansas overnight before stalling out tomorrow.  Storms will
form along this boundary late this afternoon and form into an MCS in
western Kansas propagating eastward towards the CWA.  Short term
guidance has been backing off on the timing for precipitation to
enter north central Kansas with most models entering this area after
10pm.  Over the past couple runs the HRRR has tended to greatly
weaken/dissipate this MCS as it moves into northeast Kansas, but
have continued with PoPs through the early morning to account for
the NAM which brings precipitation across the entirety of northeast
Kansas by early morning.  The main hazards with this MCS would be
damaging wind gusts, with this threat mainly limited to north
central Kansas.  Similar to this afternoon, there is also a threat
for heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.  Have held
off on a flood watch for now due to the scattered nature of storms
later this afternoon and lack of confidence on how storms will hold
together overnight.

Wednesday is another one of the days where what happens in the
morning will impact what evolves during the rest of the day.  The
surface boundary Wednesday afternoon looks to be located across the
CWA with the warm sector generally in central, east central, and
northeast Kansas.  Another day of high CAPE low shear exists and if
storms can form in the afternoon hours near the boundary, there
could be some damaging winds or small hail possible.  Temperatures
tomorrow do look to be slightly cooler with highs in the low to mid-
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

The upper trough Wednesday night deepens as it drifts southeast
from eastern Nebraska to eastern Missouri by Thursday night. Any
storms Wednesday/Wednesday night will weaken during the overnight
hours before more chances for precipitation occur Thursday as the
surface low moves east and out of central Plains. With the earlier
passage of the front Wednesday night, temperatures Thursday look
to be cool topping out in the mid to upper 70s. A brief period of
dry weather will occur Friday morning into the afternoon, but from
Friday evening through the end of the period, there look to be
sporadic chances for precipitation across the CWA. Subtle waves in
the flow over central Plains take place over the weekend before a
stronger mid-level trough moves towards Kansas Monday night.
Although temperatures warm up after Thursday and Friday, they tend
to stay near climatology through the weekend only reaching into
the upper 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

For the 00Z TAFs, expect area that was previously stabilized due
to earlier in the day convection to remain that way over all
terminals in the near term. Still a range of potential outcomes
for storms to slowly creep into the KMHK terminal as the 06Z time
frame approaches. Have delayed storms until the 05Z time frame.
Timing and coverage of any storms this period is low confidence
though, unfortunately, which also leads to only VCTS mention at
this time. Updates for the overnight period are likely. For now
though, the near term should remain free of immediate aviation
hazards.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
318 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-202030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
318 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

There is the potential for severe thunderstorms mainly late
afternoon and this evening in north central Kansas, with the
primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rainfall
is also possible which could result in flash flooding.

Thunderstorms are also possible overnight with the potential for
some damaging wind gusts with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
918 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S CONCORDIA           39.56N 97.66W
06/19/2018  M2.09 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
919 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COURTLAND               39.78N 97.90W
06/19/2018                   REPUBLIC           KS   PUBLIC

            RESTAURANT OWNER MENTIONED THAT SOME TOWN
            ROADS WERE IMPASSABLE WITH SEVERAL INCHES
            OVER SOME ROADS.

&&

BD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
922 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCANDIA                 39.80N 97.78W
06/19/2018                   REPUBLIC           KS   PUBLIC

            RESTAURANT OWNER HAD DOOR TORN OFF HINGES.

&&

BD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
927 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CONCORDIA               39.57N 97.66W
06/19/2018                   CLOUD              KS   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN.

&&

ACH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
929 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

KSZ034-200315-
Ottawa-
929 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OTTAWA COUNTY UNTIL 1015 PM
CDT...

At 929 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles north of Minneapolis to 4 miles south
of Tescott. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Bennington, Tescott, Culver, Wells and Niles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3912 9793 3923 9737 3896 9737 3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 268DEG 28KT 3919 9772 3894 9786

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1016 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

KSZ009-010-021>023-200400-
Clay-Pottawatomie-Riley-Washington-Marshall-
1016 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RILEY...NORTHWESTERN
POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND
SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1016 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles southeast of Hanover to 7 miles
northeast of Green to 3 miles northwest of Wakefield. Movement was
southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clay Center, Washington, Blue Rapids, Riley, Waterville,
Leonardville, Linn, Greenleaf, Olsburg, Randolph, Barnes, Green and
Tuttle Creek Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3981 9657 3938 9658 3922 9677 3927 9721
      3945 9711 3984 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 295DEG 22KT 3983 9683 3947 9688 3925 9707

Cohen