Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Topeka, KS

301 
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
611 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

KSC157-210000-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-180621T0000Z/
Republic-
611 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN REPUBLIC COUNTY...

At 611 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Courtland,
moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Belleville, Scandia, Courtland and Norway. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3988 9793 3978 9745 3965 9759 3965 9787
      3971 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 300DEG 32KT 3978 9792 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cohen

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
615 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

KSC157-210000-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-180621T0000Z/
Republic-
615 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN REPUBLIC COUNTY...

At 615 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Courtland,
moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Belleville, Scandia, Courtland and Norway. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3988 9793 3978 9745 3965 9759 3965 9787
      3971 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 299DEG 32KT 3976 9787 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cohen

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
624 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

KSC157-210000-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-180621T0000Z/
Republic-
624 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN REPUBLIC COUNTY...

At 623 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Norway, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters reported quarter size hail with 
         this storm.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Belleville, Scandia and Norway. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3983 9772 3978 9745 3965 9759 3965 9787
      3970 9790 3976 9787
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 300DEG 32KT 3972 9778 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cohen

899 
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
631 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

KSC157-210000-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-180621T0000Z/
Republic-
631 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY...

At 630 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Norway, moving
southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Norway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3977 9767 3978 9745 3965 9759 3965 9784
      3971 9780 3975 9775
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 299DEG 36KT 3969 9771 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cohen

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
634 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

KSC157-210000-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-180621T0000Z/
Republic-
634 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY...

At 634 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles east of
Norway, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Republic County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3975 9766 3978 9745 3965 9759 3965 9777
      3972 9774
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 300DEG 32KT 3967 9767 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cohen

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
644 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

KSC157-202354-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-180621T0000Z/
Republic-
644 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3975 9766 3978 9745 3965 9759 3965 9777
      3972 9774
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 300DEG 32KT 3962 9756 

$$

Cohen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
309 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

The main synoptic cold front has passed east of the area sweeping
the deeper gulf moisture east. The area remains in a somewhat
unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the next front that is
now located across Nebraska closer to the developing upper low.
Around 1000 j/kg of MLCAPE will be present this afternoon into the
evening which could be sufficient for scattered showers and
t-storms through sunset. Effective shear will increase to around
30kts and the unidirectional wind profile suggests any organized
convection may be capable of producing gusty winds but at this
point coverage would appear to be isolated.

Once the diurnal storms diminish it should be mostly dry overnight
before more showers invade the area from the north as the upper
low deepens and drifts southward with time on Thursday. The center
of the upper low should remain across MO placing the CWA in the
western side of the circulation with some rain showers and breezy
conds expected during the day especially north of I-70. Highs will
be cooler than normal for a change with daytime temps in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

The low will depart the area Thursday night leaving the area in
quiet weather for a short time at least through Friday. The next
shortwave in the northwest flow regime will approach the area
Friday night. The 805mb WAA/ThetaE advection will be focused
across southern KS where an MCS will likely form. We will be on
the northern side of any complex and will keep modest precip chcs
going for Friday night mainly across the southwest half of the
area.

A second shortwave will move across NE/IA on Saturday and will
keep at least some chance for t-storms across the area Sat-Sat
night although confidence in timing and location of any convection
during the Sat-Sat night time frame is very low at this point.

There is higher confidence in the upper pattern by early next week
as another upper low emerges into the plains. Given the moisture
and shear profiles this could bring us our next shot of more
widespread severe weather potential sometime Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Expect VFR conds to persist through 12z Thursday. The only
potential issues include scattered showers and isolated t-storms
that may develop across the area after 18z and could persist
around the area through 2z. After 15z Thursday expect MVFR CIGS to
overspread the area from north to south with scattered showers
also expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Omitt

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into
this evening across the area. If any storms do develop they may be
capable of producing strong damaging wind gusts. Any storms and
severe risk will diminish after sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another storm system will take aim at the area early next week.
This could bring a risk for severe storms to the area Monday into
Tuesday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
553 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

KSZ008-202330-
Republic-
553 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL REPUBLIC COUNTY
UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 553 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Lovewell State Park, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Scandia and Courtland.

LAT...LON 3993 9793 3987 9771 3968 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 300DEG 29KT 3987 9810

Cohen