Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
329 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Elevated instability in modest isentropic lift pattern has lead to
several clusters of strong to severe storms as a very warm and
moist lower troposphere warms diurnally supporting surface-based
convection in combination with 40-50kt effective shear. Very high
storm bases allowing extremely strong winds to develop in
downdraft CAPE values around 1500 J/kg. New updrafts continue to
form in northwest Kansas where the elevated upglide persist. Will
likely need to keep at least some precip chances through the night
though severe weather concerns should slowly diminish after
sunset as the boundary layer stabilizes. The very warm and humid
air ahead of a weak front is producing heat indices well into
Advisory range but again these will diminish this evening.

Weak synoptic cold front should be to the south Friday but there
are many indications of additional areas of isentropic upglide
coinciding with mid-level moisture for potential for more elevated
thunderstorms, though concern for significant storms is much more
limited in much weaker instability and northeast surface winds.
Have kept a slight chance for the whole area at this point with
little indication of any specifics on timing and location. Temps
do look a bit cooler behind the boundary so heat headlines should
not be needed.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Extended periods continue to look much more benign with upper
ridging building northeast into the central Plains and modest
surface ridge axis in place. Again better thunderstorm potential
looks to hold off until at least the mid week periods with
temperatures generally near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Focus is on convection this afternoon. The convective allowing
models have not been very good recently, but feel like TS are
likely to impact the terminals given large amounts of instability.
Have a tempo group in for the most likely window and will amend
as the TS timing becomes more apparent.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ026-039-040-
054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1056 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-201600-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
1056 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over north central
Kansas and move east early this afternoon, generally along and
south of the interstate 70 corridor. These storms could be
capable of producing damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph, as well as
some large hail possibly up to the size of golfballs.

Heat index values are expected to reach 100 to 105 degrees
This afternoon afternoon across east central Kansas. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed by 2 PM across north central Kansas and
continuing through the afternoon over east central and parts or
northeast Kansas.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WSW LAWRENCE          38.94N 95.30W
07/19/2018  E60 MPH          DOUGLAS            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             1 S GREELEY             38.35N 95.13W
07/19/2018  E0.75 INCH       ANDERSON           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BUNKER/COHEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MERIDEN                 39.19N 95.57W
07/19/2018                   JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE 20 TO 30 FT TALL SPLIT
            AND BLOCKING TRAFFIC AT 200 MAIN STREET.

&&

ACH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>