Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Topeka, KS

269 
WWUS53 KTOP 191944
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
244 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSC085-111-139-149-177-197-192045-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-180719T2045Z/
Shawnee-Wabaunsee-Osage-Pottawatomie-Jackson-Lyon-
244 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SHAWNEE...WABAUNSEE...NORTHERN OSAGE...SOUTHEASTERN
POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTIES...

At 243 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles southwest of Onaga to near Paxico to 9 miles
northwest of Bushong, moving east at 50 mph.

These are very dangerous storms. These storms have a history of 
producing wind damage.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. Automated weather observations 
         are measuring severe winds with these storms.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Carbondale, Rossville, Eskridge, Tecumseh, St. Marys,
Richland, Dover, Silver Lake, Auburn, Overbrook, Burlingame,
Scranton, Hoyt, Maple Hill, Mayetta, Harveyville, Paxico, Emmett and
Denison.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 333 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 151 and 188.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread 
wind damage. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay 
away from windows.
 
&&

LAT...LON 3859 9551 3879 9639 3909 9617 3947 9616
      3944 9557 3942 9557 3942 9559 3907 9560
      3905 9558 3907 9555 3905 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 282DEG 42KT 3942 9622 3910 9617 3876 9632 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

Cohen

503 
WWUS53 KTOP 191950
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
250 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSC085-111-139-149-177-197-192045-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-180719T2045Z/
Shawnee-Wabaunsee-Osage-Pottawatomie-Jackson-Lyon-
250 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SHAWNEE...WABAUNSEE...NORTHERN OSAGE...SOUTHEASTERN
POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTIES...

At 249 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles south of Onaga to 3 miles west of Maple Hill
to 7 miles north of Bushong, moving east at 45 mph.

These are very dangerous storms. Widespread damaging winds are 
occurring.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. Automated weather observations 
         are measuring severe winds.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Carbondale, Rossville, Eskridge, Tecumseh, St. Marys,
Richland, Dover, Silver Lake, Auburn, Overbrook, Burlingame,
Scranton, Hoyt, Maple Hill, Mayetta, Harveyville, Paxico, Emmett and
Denison.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 333 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 151 and 188.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread 
wind damage. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay 
away from windows.
 
&&

LAT...LON 3859 9551 3879 9639 3909 9617 3947 9616
      3944 9557 3942 9557 3942 9559 3907 9560
      3905 9558 3907 9555 3905 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 281DEG 41KT 3941 9614 3909 9609 3875 9624 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

Cohen

916 
WWUS53 KTOP 192016
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
316 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSC085-111-139-149-177-197-192045-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-180719T2045Z/
Shawnee-Wabaunsee-Osage-Pottawatomie-Jackson-Lyon-
316 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SHAWNEE...WABAUNSEE...NORTHERN OSAGE...SOUTHEASTERN
POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTIES...

At 315 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles west of Denison to Topeka to 4 miles southwest
of Burlingame, moving east at 55 mph.

These are very dangerous storms. Widespread damaging winds are 
occurring.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. Automated weather observations 
         are indicating measured severe winds.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Carbondale, Rossville, Eskridge, Tecumseh, St. Marys,
Richland, Dover, Silver Lake, Auburn, Overbrook, Burlingame,
Scranton, Hoyt, Maple Hill, Mayetta, Harveyville, Paxico, Emmett and
Denison.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 333 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 151 and 188.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread 
wind damage. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay 
away from windows.
 
&&

LAT...LON 3859 9551 3879 9639 3909 9617 3947 9616
      3944 9557 3942 9557 3942 9559 3907 9560
      3905 9558 3907 9555 3905 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 276DEG 46KT 3941 9570 3905 9566 3870 9589 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

Cohen

757 
WWUS53 KTOP 192026
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
326 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSC085-111-139-149-177-197-192045-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-180719T2045Z/
Shawnee-Wabaunsee-Osage-Pottawatomie-Jackson-Lyon-
326 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SHAWNEE...WABAUNSEE...NORTHERN OSAGE...SOUTHEASTERN
POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTIES...

At 324 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Denison to near Tecumseh to 4 miles northeast of
Osage City, moving east at 50 mph.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE 
OCCURRING! TAKE SHELTER NOW!

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. Measured severe winds have been 
         reported at Topeka Billard Airport.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Carbondale, Rossville, Eskridge, Tecumseh, St. Marys,
Richland, Dover, Silver Lake, Auburn, Overbrook, Burlingame,
Scranton, Hoyt, Maple Hill, Mayetta, Harveyville, Paxico, Emmett and
Denison.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 333 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 151 and 188.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 9551 3879 9639 3909 9617 3947 9616
      3944 9557 3942 9557 3942 9559 3907 9560
      3905 9558 3907 9555 3905 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 282DEG 42KT 3939 9559 3903 9555 3868 9578 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

Cohen

490 
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
337 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSC111-149-197-192045-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-180719T2045Z/
Wabaunsee-Pottawatomie-Lyon-
337 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WABAUNSEE...SOUTHEASTERN
POTTAWATOMIE AND NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3868 9589 3898 9582 3946 9587 3944 9557
      3942 9557 3942 9559 3907 9560 3905 9558
      3907 9555 3905 9550 3859 9551
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 283DEG 37KT 3937 9550 3901 9546 3866 9569 

$$

KSC085-139-177-192045-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-180719T2045Z/
Shawnee-Osage-Jackson-
337 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SHAWNEE...NORTHERN OSAGE AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 335 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Valley Falls to 4 miles southwest of Lecompton to
3 miles north of Lyndon, moving east at 45 mph.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE 
OCCURRING! TAKE SHELTER NOW!

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. Widespread measured severe winds 
         are occurring. Widespread damaging winds are occurring.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Carbondale, Tecumseh, Richland, Auburn, Overbrook,
Burlingame, Scranton, Hoyt, Mayetta, Denison, Pauline, Pomona Lake,
Potawatomi Reservation and Berryton.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 353 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 165 and 188.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread 
wind damage. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay 
away from windows.
 
&&

LAT...LON 3868 9589 3898 9582 3946 9587 3944 9557
      3942 9557 3942 9559 3907 9560 3905 9558
      3907 9555 3905 9550 3859 9551
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 283DEG 37KT 3937 9550 3901 9546 3866 9569 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

Cohen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Latest visible imagery shows increasing ACCAS over northwest KS
along a weak surface trough/boundary. Meanwhile a very humid
airmass continues to heat up over the forecast area with dewpoints
holding in the lower and mid 70s and temps already into the 90s.
RAP progs show a very unstable airmass developing by the early
afternoon with MUCAPE values likely between 4000 and 5000 J/kg.
The past several runs of the HRRR have shown isolated to scattered
convection developing in the vicinity of where the ACCAS is now
and moving east generally along the I-70 Corridor. Because of this
I've increased POPs across the forecast area into the 40 and 50
percent range through the afternoon. Storms could impact the area
by 2 PM. The bigger concern will be for damaging winds. Although
deep layer shear of 50kt would be supportive for rotating updrafts
and some risk for large hail as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Yesterday evening a midlevel shortwave trough over South Dakota
provided the lift for convective activity across northeast and
central Nebraska. A few of those storms consolidated into cluster
is currently moving southward through eastern Nebraska. The
environment ahead of the cluster consist of MUCAPE around
2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear on the order of 50 kt, so
embedded updrafts may rotate especially on the southwest flank,
which has been forecasted by several CAMs. Given the environment
these storms could produce large hail as well as damaging wind
gusts. As of now there is a lack of a well established cold pool,
but upscale growth is still possible. If that happens the damaging
wind threat would increase given DCAPE upwards of 1500 J/kg.
There is some concern that warmer temperatures around 750-700 mb
will increase the CIN causing the storms to weaken. The greatest
chances for severe storms is mainly across northern and
northeastern Kansas through the late morning, and there is a watch
is effect until 8 AM for those locations.

Later this afternoon the midlevel shortwave continues eastward over
IA with the trough axis extended southwestward over the region. This
along with the midlevel speed max over Nebraska will provide some
large-scale lift. Several CAMs are depicting redevelopment this
afternoon along the effective outflow boundary that could reside
in far eastern Kansas from the morning activity. Also, a weak
surface trough orientated west-east will move southward through
the forecast area this afternoon. Model soundings suggest a mostly
uncapped environment so convective initiation may be possible
along that boundary as well. The other concern today will be the
temperatures and heat indices approaching advisory criteria. With
the potential for convection and increased cloud cover the
temperatures and instability may be suppressed in spots. Most
locations though should reach 100-105 unless the cloud cover is
more expansive, so the advisory continues. If storms do develop
MLCAPE will range from 1500- 2500 with 50 kt of effective bulk
shear so rotating updrafts can not be ruled out. If temperatures
manage to reach the mid to upper 90s the boundary layer will mix
up to about 2 km so damaging wind gusts will certainly be a
threat. Large hail is also possible given the relatively straight
elongated hodographs that could favor splitting cells. This is
supported by the high-resolution models that paint helicity swaths
in east central Kansas. Tonight the boundary pushes just south of
the forecast area allowing the potential for isentropic lift. The
model solutions vary widely for this time frame so have kept
chances through the overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Saturday, the upper low across southern Lake MI at 12Z SAT will
amplify as it digs southeast towards the central OH River Valley.
An upper level ridge across TX/NM border will amplify northward
into the Central High Plains. The weak surface ridge will
continue to build southward across KS during the afternoon hours.
Highs on Saturday may be slightly cooler with light north-
northeast winds. Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Saturday night through Tuesday, the upper low
across the central OH river valley will dig southward towards the
central Gulf Coast, and become detached from the main mid
level H5 jet across the northern Conus. The upper ridge across
the southern and central High Plains will retrograde slowly west
into the Southwestern US. Expect mainly dry conditions with a
near stationary surface ridge axis extending from the upper
Midwest into central TX. Expect mostly dry conditons with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tuesday night through Thursday, the upper ridge across the southwest
US will amplify which will cause the mid and upper level winds to
become more northwesterly across the central plains. Minor
perturbations may be embedded within northwesterly mid-level flow and
may provide enough ascent for a chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the western and northern counties of the CWA.  Highs may be a
bit cooler with mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Focus is on convection this afternoon. The convective allowing
models have not been very good recently, but feel like TS are
likely to impact the terminals given large amounts of instability.
Have a tempo group in for the most likely window and will amend
as the TS timing becomes more apparent.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ026-039-040-
054>056-058-059.

&&

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1056 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-201600-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
1056 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over north central
Kansas and move east early this afternoon, generally along and
south of the interstate 70 corridor. These storms could be
capable of producing damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph, as well as
some large hail possibly up to the size of golfballs.

Heat index values are expected to reach 100 to 105 degrees
This afternoon afternoon across east central Kansas. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed by 2 PM across north central Kansas and
continuing through the afternoon over east central and parts or
northeast Kansas.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
208 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     TSTM WND GST     MILFORD                 39.18N 96.91W
07/19/2018  E80 MPH          GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BUNKER/COHEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
226 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSZ037-038-054-055-192030-
Wabaunsee-Lyon-Osage-Morris-
226 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MORRIS...SOUTHEASTERN
WABAUNSEE...WEST CENTRAL OSAGE AND LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 225 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms along a line
extending from 3 miles northeast of White City to near Wilsey to 9
miles southeast of Lincolnville. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Council Grove, Americus, Olpe, Reading, Allen, Admire,
Wilsey, Parkerville, Bushong, Dunlap and Council Grove Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 128 and 140.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 116 and 155.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3829 9636 3852 9635 3852 9675 3860 9671
      3882 9668 3875 9592 3853 9593 3823 9611
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 277DEG 36KT 3882 9668 3861 9671 3841 9681

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
233 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW MANHATTAN         39.20N 96.62W
07/19/2018  E80 MPH          RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BUNKER/COHEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
234 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW MANHATTAN         39.20N 96.62W
07/19/2018                   RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN. ESTIMATED 10
            INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

BUNKER/COHEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
238 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAY CENTER             39.38N 97.12W
07/19/2018                   CLAY               KS   PUBLIC

            1-2 FOOT DIAMETER TREE SNAPPED NEAR THE BASE
            OF THE TREE TRUNK, PICTURE ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
239 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 WNW ALMA              39.06N 96.43W
07/19/2018  E60 MPH          RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BUNKER/COHEN