Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Topeka, KS

330 
WWUS53 KTOP 191824
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
124 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSC029-191915-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-180719T1915Z/
Cloud-
124 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN CLOUD COUNTY...

At 124 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles south of Concordia to 3 miles south of Aurora
to 5 miles south of Miltonvale, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Miltonvale and Aurora. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3953 9737 3931 9737 3931 9782 3955 9787
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 264DEG 27KT 3951 9767 3940 9754 3927 9747 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

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WWUS53 KTOP 191854 RRA
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
154 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSC029-191915-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-180719T1915Z/
Cloud-
154 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD COUNTY...

At 154 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles northwest of Aurora to 4 miles north of
Miltonvale to near Oak Hill, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Miltonvale and Aurora. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3953 9737 3931 9737 3931 9766 3954 9760
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 263DEG 15KT 3952 9757 3941 9744 3928 9737 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

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WWUS53 KTOP 191902
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
202 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSC029-191912-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-180719T1915Z/
Cloud-
202 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3953 9737 3931 9737 3931 9766 3954 9760
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 265DEG 26KT 3952 9752 3941 9739 3928 9732 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Latest visible imagery shows increasing ACCAS over northwest KS
along a weak surface trough/boundary. Meanwhile a very humid
airmass continues to heat up over the forecast area with dewpoints
holding in the lower and mid 70s and temps already into the 90s.
RAP progs show a very unstable airmass developing by the early
afternoon with MUCAPE values likely between 4000 and 5000 J/kg.
The past several runs of the HRRR have shown isolated to scattered
convection developing in the vicinity of where the ACCAS is now
and moving east generally along the I-70 Corridor. Because of this
I've increased POPs across the forecast area into the 40 and 50
percent range through the afternoon. Storms could impact the area
by 2 PM. The bigger concern will be for damaging winds. Although
deep layer shear of 50kt would be supportive for rotating updrafts
and some risk for large hail as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Yesterday evening a midlevel shortwave trough over South Dakota
provided the lift for convective activity across northeast and
central Nebraska. A few of those storms consolidated into cluster
is currently moving southward through eastern Nebraska. The
environment ahead of the cluster consist of MUCAPE around
2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear on the order of 50 kt, so
embedded updrafts may rotate especially on the southwest flank,
which has been forecasted by several CAMs. Given the environment
these storms could produce large hail as well as damaging wind
gusts. As of now there is a lack of a well established cold pool,
but upscale growth is still possible. If that happens the damaging
wind threat would increase given DCAPE upwards of 1500 J/kg.
There is some concern that warmer temperatures around 750-700 mb
will increase the CIN causing the storms to weaken. The greatest
chances for severe storms is mainly across northern and
northeastern Kansas through the late morning, and there is a watch
is effect until 8 AM for those locations.

Later this afternoon the midlevel shortwave continues eastward over
IA with the trough axis extended southwestward over the region. This
along with the midlevel speed max over Nebraska will provide some
large-scale lift. Several CAMs are depicting redevelopment this
afternoon along the effective outflow boundary that could reside
in far eastern Kansas from the morning activity. Also, a weak
surface trough orientated west-east will move southward through
the forecast area this afternoon. Model soundings suggest a mostly
uncapped environment so convective initiation may be possible
along that boundary as well. The other concern today will be the
temperatures and heat indices approaching advisory criteria. With
the potential for convection and increased cloud cover the
temperatures and instability may be suppressed in spots. Most
locations though should reach 100-105 unless the cloud cover is
more expansive, so the advisory continues. If storms do develop
MLCAPE will range from 1500- 2500 with 50 kt of effective bulk
shear so rotating updrafts can not be ruled out. If temperatures
manage to reach the mid to upper 90s the boundary layer will mix
up to about 2 km so damaging wind gusts will certainly be a
threat. Large hail is also possible given the relatively straight
elongated hodographs that could favor splitting cells. This is
supported by the high-resolution models that paint helicity swaths
in east central Kansas. Tonight the boundary pushes just south of
the forecast area allowing the potential for isentropic lift. The
model solutions vary widely for this time frame so have kept
chances through the overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Saturday, the upper low across southern Lake MI at 12Z SAT will
amplify as it digs southeast towards the central OH River Valley.
An upper level ridge across TX/NM border will amplify northward
into the Central High Plains. The weak surface ridge will
continue to build southward across KS during the afternoon hours.
Highs on Saturday may be slightly cooler with light north-
northeast winds. Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Saturday night through Tuesday, the upper low
across the central OH river valley will dig southward towards the
central Gulf Coast, and become detached from the main mid
level H5 jet across the northern Conus. The upper ridge across
the southern and central High Plains will retrograde slowly west
into the Southwestern US. Expect mainly dry conditions with a
near stationary surface ridge axis extending from the upper
Midwest into central TX. Expect mostly dry conditons with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tuesday night through Thursday, the upper ridge across the southwest
US will amplify which will cause the mid and upper level winds to
become more northwesterly across the central plains. Minor
perturbations may be embedded within northwesterly mid-level flow and
may provide enough ascent for a chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the western and northern counties of the CWA.  Highs may be a
bit cooler with mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Focus is on convection this afternoon. The convective allowing
models have not been very good recently, but feel like TS are
likely to impact the terminals given large amounts of instability.
Have a tempo group in for the most likely window and will amend
as the TS timing becomes more apparent.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ026-039-040-
054>056-058-059.

&&

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1056 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-201600-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
1056 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over north central
Kansas and move east early this afternoon, generally along and
south of the interstate 70 corridor. These storms could be
capable of producing damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph, as well as
some large hail possibly up to the size of golfballs.

Heat index values are expected to reach 100 to 105 degrees
This afternoon afternoon across east central Kansas. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed by 2 PM across north central Kansas and
continuing through the afternoon over east central and parts or
northeast Kansas.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
101 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N TESCOTT             39.02N 97.87W
07/19/2018  E60 MPH          OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BUNKER/COHEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
104 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND GST     DELPHOS                 39.28N 97.77W
07/19/2018  E60 MPH          OTTAWA             KS   PUBLIC

&&

BUNKER/COHEN