Alert archive / Florida / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 439

December 20, 201821 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 20, 2018, 7:55 AM EST for 21 counties in Florida. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 20, 2018, 7:55 AM EST (12:55 UTC)
Expired
Dec 20, 2018, 2:43 PM EST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 21 counties

Brevard County, FL, Charlotte County, FL, Collier County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Glades County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Lake County, FL, Lee County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Polk County, FL, Sarasota County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Volusia County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
5%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

25 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 20, 8:01 AM ESTTornado WarningTBWHillsborough, Polk29 min
Dec 20, 8:15 AM ESTTornado WarningTBWHardee, Polk30 min
Dec 20, 8:23 AM ESTTornado WarningMLBLake, Orange22 min
Dec 20, 8:43 AM ESTTornado WarningTBWPolk21 min
Dec 20, 9:21 AM ESTTornado WarningTBWPolk12 min
Dec 20, 9:24 AM ESTTornado WarningTBWManatee, Sarasota21 min
Dec 20, 9:25 AM ESTTornado WarningMLBOrange35 min
Dec 20, 9:25 AM ESTTornado WarningTBWDeSoto, Hardee, Manatee35 min
Dec 20, 9:37 AM ESTTornado WarningTBWPolk23 min
Dec 20, 9:48 AM ESTTornado WarningTBWHardee, Polk27 min
Dec 20, 10:46 AM ESTTornado WarningMLBSeminole, Volusia29 min
Dec 20, 11:01 AM ESTTornado WarningMLBVolusia29 min
Dec 20, 11:13 AM ESTTornado WarningTBWPolk19 min
Dec 20, 11:21 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTBWCharlotte, DeSoto, Hardee, Lee, Manatee, Sarasota39 min
Dec 20, 11:23 AM ESTTornado WarningTBWSarasota2 min
Dec 20, 11:24 AM ESTTornado WarningMLBVolusia19 min
Dec 20, 11:35 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMLBBrevard, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Volusia55 min
Dec 20, 11:54 AM ESTTornado WarningTBWHardee, Manatee36 min
Dec 20, 12:01 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTBWCharlotte, DeSoto, Hardee, Hillsborough, Manatee, Polk and 1 more44 min
Dec 20, 12:02 PM ESTTornado WarningMLBBrevard, Seminole, Volusia28 min
Dec 20, 12:33 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMLBBrevard, Seminole, Volusia27 min
Dec 20, 12:57 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMLBBrevard, Orange, Osceola63 min
Dec 20, 1:35 PM ESTTornado WarningMFLGlades, Hendry25 min
Dec 20, 1:45 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMFLCollier45 min
Dec 20, 2:25 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMLBBrevard27 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2018-12-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 620 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2018-12-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 318 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
620 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-264 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
569 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
318 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
316 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

942 
WWUS20 KWNS 201252
SEL9  
SPC WW 201252
FLZ000-CWZ000-202100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
755 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  East-central to west-central and southwest Florida
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 755 AM until
  400 PM EST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Bands of thunderstorms should cross the watch area through
mid-afternoon.  This activity will offer sporadic tornado and
damaging-wind threats in a favorable shear regime, as the inflow air
mass gradually destabilizes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
either side of a line from 35 miles south southeast of Sarasota FL
to 25 miles north northeast of Melbourne FL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22030.

...Edwards

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 20, 6:28 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCManatee, Sarasota62 min
Dec 20, 7:38 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee and 11 more97 min
Dec 20, 10:49 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Charlotte, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry and 11 more116 min
Dec 20, 1:41 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Collier, Glades, Hendry, Highlands, Indian River and 7 more2 hr
Dec 20, 2:15 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrevard, Broward, Collier, Glades, Hendry, Indian River and 6 more6 hr
Dec 20, 5:55 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBroward, Miami-Dade2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Florida, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.