Tornado Warning 27, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
801 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Rain is in place across all but the extreme northern and
southern areas this morning. Winds are turning from the SE
to the south and are increasing and becoming gusty. Already
seeing some bowing/rotating segments with the line moving
onshore currently, and the big variable for today's storms
will again be the surface instability as to whether any of
that will make it down. All existing watches and warnings
will remain unchanged, but will also be adding a Tornado
Watch in through 21Z for Pinellas, Hillsborough, and Polk
counties southward through the area. Will get the updates
out for the watch shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds will continue to increase, become gusty, and turn to
the S through the late morning, then more SW for the
afternoon with periods of heavy rain causing MVFR to IFR
conditions or worse. Rains are currently just to the north
of the FMY/RSW terminals, but will be overspreading there
within an hour or two.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA will be becoming a Gale Warning at 10 am and a TOR watch
will be in place across the near shore waters through 21z/4
pm. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move over the
waters through the day with winds turning to the south and
southwest through the day as well as increasing in speed to
Gale force. Seas will also be building through the day. Not
much change for the update except to put in the TOR watch
headline.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  74  59  64  50 / 100  60  70  20
FMY  78  63  68  53 / 100  60  40  10
GIF  76  59  65  47 / 100  50  50  10
SRQ  73  60  65  54 / 100  60  70  20
BKV  74  56  64  46 / 100  50  70  10
SPG  74  59  66  52 / 100  60  70  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Friday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Pasco-Pinellas.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Flood Watch through Friday morning for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland
     Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Sumter.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST
     Saturday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60
     NM.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Friday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
UPPER AIR...57/McMichael
DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
311 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-202015-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
311 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue through today,
with strong and possibly damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall,
and frequent lightning strikes expected. There is also a marginal
risk for severe storms, mainly from around the I-4 corridor
southward. Timing for the strongest storms is early this afternoon
through the evening.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
Locally heavy rainfall is expected through today and into the
first part of the evening. Forecast rainfall totals are generally
in the 3 to 4 inch range, but higher amounts are certainly
possible. Flooding of low-lying and poor-drainage areas as well as
minor flooding on certain roadways can be expected.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
A long duration and fetch of gale force winds will result in
elevated water levels and additional wave run-up concerns along
the west coast Thursday night into Friday. Coastal flooding and
beach erosion will be a concern and coastal residents should be
alert for possible warnings and take action to protect property.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Strong onshore flow will lead to very high surf and an extremely
high risk for rip currents along area beaches.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Hazardous conditions are expected over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through at least Friday night. Strong southeast to south winds
today will shift west and northwest behind the cold front Thursday
night into Friday, strengthening to gale force. These strong winds
will produce very rough seas over the entire coastal waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
A long duration and fetch of gale force winds will result in
elevated water levels and additional wave run-up concerns along
the west coast Thursday night into Friday. Coastal flooding and
beach erosion will be a concern and coastal residents should be
alert for possible warnings and take action to protect property.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Strong onshore flow will lead to very high surf and an extremely
high risk for rip currents along area beaches through at least
Saturday.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Gale force winds will be possible through Friday, with very
rough seas. Winds will begin to improve some on Saturday, but
wave heights will take longer to go down.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Carlisle

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
740 AM EST THU DEC 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 ESE TAMPA             27.93N 82.43W
12/20/2018  M39 MPH          HILLSBOROUGH       FL   BUOY

            PORTS SITE AT EAST BAY CAUSEWAY REPORTED A 34 KNOT WIND
            GUST.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
857 AM EST THU DEC 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 W FORT DESOTO PARK    27.61N 82.76W
12/20/2018  M59.00 MPH       GMZ853             FL   MESONET

            WEATHERFLOW SITE REPORTED A 59 MPH WIND GUST.

0710 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 E DOWNTOWN SAINT PETE 27.77N 82.57W
12/20/2018  E45.00 MPH       GMZ830             FL   MESONET

            WEATHERFLOW SITE REPORTED A 45 MPH WIND GUST.

0740 AM     TORNADO          9 NNW MYAKKA CITY       27.46N 82.22W
12/20/2018                   MANATEE            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PORCH OFF HOUSE AND TREES DOWN ALONG KIBLER RANCH ROAD.

&&

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