Coastal Flood Statement 3, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
101 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

.AVIATION...
Periods of showers will continue to impact all terminals through the
overnight hours with mainly VFR conditions expected through daybreak.
Winds increasing to 10-15 knots overnight out of E/SE...with higher
gusts likely toward dawn. A strong strong cold front approaching the
area will bring numerous to widespread showers and storms to the
region throughout the late morning into the evening. Expect BKN cigs
in the 2-4kft range with winds becoming quite strong with frequent
gusts from the SE/S in the 20-30 kt range. Pilots should also be
aware of wind shear just off the surface especially during the
afternoon. Heaviest and widespread rain ends Thursday evening...but
scattered showers continue onshore from the Gulf into early Friday.
Winds shifting west behind front Thursday night increase to 25-30
knots...with higher gusts near the coast.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  73  59  65  49 / 100  60  70  20
FMY  78  62  68  53 / 100  80  50  10
GIF  76  59  66  45 / 100  50  50  10
SRQ  73  60  64  53 / 100  60  70  20
BKV  74  57  64  45 / 100  50  70  10
SPG  74  59  65  52 / 100  60  70  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland
     Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Sumter.

     Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through Friday
     afternoon for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Gale Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through Friday
     evening for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
     Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs
     FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST this morning
     for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal
     waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/McKaughan
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
311 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-202015-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
311 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue through today,
with strong and possibly damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall,
and frequent lightning strikes expected. There is also a marginal
risk for severe storms, mainly from around the I-4 corridor
southward. Timing for the strongest storms is early this afternoon
through the evening.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
Locally heavy rainfall is expected through today and into the
first part of the evening. Forecast rainfall totals are generally
in the 3 to 4 inch range, but higher amounts are certainly
possible. Flooding of low-lying and poor-drainage areas as well as
minor flooding on certain roadways can be expected.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
A long duration and fetch of gale force winds will result in
elevated water levels and additional wave run-up concerns along
the west coast Thursday night into Friday. Coastal flooding and
beach erosion will be a concern and coastal residents should be
alert for possible warnings and take action to protect property.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Strong onshore flow will lead to very high surf and an extremely
high risk for rip currents along area beaches.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Hazardous conditions are expected over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through at least Friday night. Strong southeast to south winds
today will shift west and northwest behind the cold front Thursday
night into Friday, strengthening to gale force. These strong winds
will produce very rough seas over the entire coastal waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
A long duration and fetch of gale force winds will result in
elevated water levels and additional wave run-up concerns along
the west coast Thursday night into Friday. Coastal flooding and
beach erosion will be a concern and coastal residents should be
alert for possible warnings and take action to protect property.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Strong onshore flow will lead to very high surf and an extremely
high risk for rip currents along area beaches through at least
Saturday.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Gale force winds will be possible through Friday, with very
rough seas. Winds will begin to improve some on Saturday, but
wave heights will take longer to go down.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Carlisle