Alert archive / Florida / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 427

November 12, 20184 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 12, 2018, 11:46 AM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 12, 2018, 11:46 AM CST (17:46 UTC)
Expired
Nov 12, 2018, 7:00 PM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 34 counties

Baldwin County, AL, Coffee County, AL, Covington County, AL, Dale County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Escambia County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Jefferson Parish, LA, Lafourche Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Plaquemines Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Saint Charles Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Terrebonne Parish, LA, George County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Stone County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
50%

Warnings issued inside it

6 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 12, 11:59 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBOkaloosa, Santa Rosa13 min
Nov 12, 1:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEBay, Gulf26 min
Nov 12, 2:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEBay27 min
Nov 12, 3:26 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBOkaloosa37 min
Nov 12, 4:50 PM CSTTornado WarningTAEHolmes, Jackson, Walton, Washington25 min
Nov 12, 5:15 PM CSTTornado WarningTAEJackson16 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 236 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2018-11-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2018-11-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 472 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
425 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
472 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
487 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
5.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

647 
WWUS20 KWNS 121743
SEL7  
SPC WW 121743
ALZ000-FLZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-130100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 427
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern Alabama
  Western Florida Panhandle
  Southeast Louisiana
  Southern Mississippi
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until
  800 PM EST.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to affect the watch area
through the afternoon and early evening.  The strongest cells will
be capable of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 10 miles south southeast of Marianna
FL to 35 miles south southwest of New Orleans LA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 426...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 12, 4:34 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin, Mobile7 hr
Nov 12, 7:54 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Mobile2 hr
Nov 12, 11:25 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Covington, Escambia, Geneva, Mobile95 min
Nov 12, 3:51 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoffee, Covington, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston114 min
Nov 12, 4:01 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, Iberia, Jefferson, Lafourche, Orleans and 9 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Florida, 2018Tornado Watches in Alabama, 2018Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.