Alert archive / Tennessee / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 423

November 5, 201810 counties in Arkansas; 22 counties in Mississippi; 43 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 5, 2018, 7:04 PM CST for 10 counties in Arkansas; 22 counties in Mississippi; 43 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 5, 2018, 7:04 PM CST (01:04 UTC)
Expired
Nov 6, 2018, 2:44 AM CST
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 75 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Phillips County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Bedford County, TN, Benton County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Chester County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Davidson County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Giles County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Macon County, TN, Madison County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Perry County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Smith County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Wayne County, TN, Weakley County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
40%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

39 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 5, 7:52 PM CSTTornado WarningMEGCoahoma, Panola, Quitman38 min
Nov 5, 8:20 PM CSTTornado WarningMEGBenton, Carroll, Henry40 min
Nov 5, 8:27 PM CSTTornado WarningMEGLafayette, Marshall, Panola48 min
Nov 5, 9:06 PM CSTTornado WarningMEGBenton, Lafayette, Marshall, Union39 min
Nov 5, 9:08 PM CSTTornado WarningMEGTallahatchie, Yalobusha52 min
Nov 5, 9:18 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXCheatham, Dickson, Montgomery27 min
Nov 5, 9:40 PM CSTTornado WarningMEGAlcorn, Benton, Prentiss, Tippah, Union24 min
Nov 5, 9:43 PM CSTTornado WarningMEGCalhoun, Lafayette, Pontotoc, Yalobusha47 min
Nov 5, 9:55 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXCheatham, Davidson, Robertson, Sumner35 min
Nov 5, 10:20 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXSumner, Trousdale, Wilson25 min
Nov 5, 10:27 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGLee, Pontotoc, Union48 min
Nov 5, 10:28 PM CSTTornado WarningMEGHardin8 min
Nov 5, 10:31 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXWayne29 min
Nov 5, 10:33 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXHickman, Lewis, Maury, Perry, Wayne27 min
Nov 5, 10:44 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGAlcorn, Prentiss, Tishomingo32 min
Nov 5, 10:48 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningMEGPontotoc83 min
Nov 5, 10:55 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXLawrence, Lewis, Wayne35 min
Nov 5, 10:55 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXHickman, Lewis, Maury21 min
Nov 5, 10:59 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningOHXCheatham, Davidson, Sumner2 hr
Nov 5, 11:01 PM CSTTornado WarningMEGTishomingo11 min
Nov 5, 11:01 PM CSTTornado Warning Considerable damage threatMEGItawamba, Lee, Pontotoc44 min
Nov 5, 11:08 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXLawrence, Wayne37 min
Nov 5, 11:15 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXHickman, Maury, Williamson30 min
Nov 5, 11:22 PM CSTTornado Warning Considerable damage threatMEGItawamba, Lee, Prentiss, Tishomingo34 min
Nov 5, 11:29 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningMEGItawamba, Lee74 min
Nov 5, 11:31 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXMarshall, Maury29 min
Nov 5, 11:37 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXWilliamson23 min
Nov 5, 11:38 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXLawrence, Wayne37 min
Nov 5, 11:55 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXDavidson, Rutherford, Williamson, Wilson35 min
Nov 5, 11:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXBedford, Marshall, Maury, Rutherford34 min
Nov 5, 11:59 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXRutherford, Williamson31 min
Nov 6, 12:00 AM CSTTornado WarningOHXBedford, Marshall, Maury, Rutherford, Williamson30 min
Nov 6, 12:01 AM CSTTornado WarningOHXGiles, Lawrence29 min
Nov 6, 12:18 AM CSTTornado WarningOHXCannon, Rutherford, Wilson14 min
Nov 6, 12:23 AM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedOHXCannon, Rutherford37 min
Nov 6, 12:27 AM CSTTornado WarningOHXGiles18 min
Nov 6, 12:43 AM CSTTornado WarningOHXCannon, DeKalb, Rutherford, Smith, Wilson32 min
Nov 6, 12:47 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXBedford, Cannon, Coffee28 min
Nov 6, 1:23 AM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedOHXCoffee, Grundy39 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 7 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2018-11-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 22 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2018-11-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 3 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
22 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-63 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
602 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
66 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
86 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

327 
WWUS20 KWNS 060101
SEL3  
SPC WW 060101
ARZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-060900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
700 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southeastern Arkansas
  Northern Mississippi
  Western and middle Tennessee

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 700 PM
  until 300 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...As the air mass moistens and destabilizes from southwest
to northeast, the potential for tornadoes and damaging gusts will
increase, with a band of storms moving rapidly across the Mid-South
tonight.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 55 miles east southeast of Pine Bluff
AR to 45 miles west northwest of Nashville TN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 422...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.

...Edwards

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 5, 9:28 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Benton, Calhoun, Carroll, Chickasaw, Grenada and 21 more2 hr
Nov 5, 11:31 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAttala, Choctaw, Clay, Lowndes, Noxubee, Oktibbeha and 1 more59 min
Nov 5, 10:30 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBledsoe, Clay, Cumberland, DeKalb, Fentress, Franklin and 14 more7 hr
Nov 6, 1:40 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Blount, Bradley, Campbell, Carter, Claiborne and 23 more65 min
Nov 6, 2:15 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAnderson, Blount, Bradley, Campbell, Knox, Loudon and 8 more5 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2018Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2018Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.