Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
910 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Updated suite of forecast products to mention Tornado Watch Number
423 thru 06/09Z (3 AM CST) in zone forecast product. Latest HRRR
model depicting best squall line movement west to east across mid
state region and adjusted hrly grids with wx and pops
accordingly. Highlighted mention of damaging winds, tornadoes, and
heavy rainfall with this squall line as it moves across the mid
state region. Nashville Metro area continues to look like it will
be influenced by this squall line event between 10 PM CST and 1
AM CST. Tweaked hrly temp, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction
grids. Current temps trends in line with forecasted lows.
Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...Went very close to 18Z TAF discussion reasoning.
Several amendments probable at all terminal sites due to actual
fluctuations in wx, wind, vsbys, and ceilings thru at least
06/10Z. Reason behind this is that there is no way with forecast
wx resolution to do these very short term time period deviations
accurately in a concise terminal forecast format. One significant
change of note though is the introduction of LLWS with 60kts of
shear within 2 KFT of sfc. Preliminary data from 06/00Z OHX
sounding sounding profile depicting 50-60kts winds as close as 200
feet off sfc. Significant caution is urged for any aviation
interest across the mid state region thru 06/10Z. Latest models
continuing to support designated TEMPO group impacts and timing
windows of potential strong/svr tstms of a potential squall line
feature moving across terminal locations. During these TEMPO time
periods sfc gusts 40 to 50 kts if not locally higher are certainly
not out of the question. Sly sustained sfc winds 10-15kts with
gusts to 25kts will veer to the west as sfc cold front moves into
northwest portions of mid state by 06/04Z and proceeds
southeastward across and out of mid state by 06/12Z. Conditions
should rapidly improve to VFR/SKC conditions all terminals
06/14Z-06/24Z as sfc high pressure influences and a dry quasi swly
flow pattern becomes established across mid state region.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........31

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
701 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-061015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
701 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe
thunderstorms across Middle Tennessee tonight.

A line of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms is expected
to move across Middle Tennessee from the mid evening hours into
early Tuesday morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms within the
line will be capable of producing damaging winds and some
tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
may be possible in a few locations also.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Low temperatures below freezing are possible each morning on
Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested from this evening through early
Tuesday morning.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds > 50 MPH (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

31

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
756 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018

TNZ005-060230-
Stewart TN-
756 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN STEWART COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM CST...

At 755 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Big Rock, or 10 miles northwest of Dover, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Big Rock and Land Between The Lakes.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8764 3661 8764
      3647 8805 3649 8806 3652 8804 3656 8803
      3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 238DEG 38KT 3662 8792

Whitehead

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
836 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018

TNZ005-006-023-024-060300-
Stewart TN-Humphreys TN-Montgomery TN-Houston TN-
836 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...
STEWART...HOUSTON AND NORTH CENTRAL HUMPHREYS COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
CST...

At 835 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Springville, or 10 miles south of Paris Landing
State Park, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Big Rock, Cumberland City, Houston
County Airport and Indian Mound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3648 8805 3663 8779 3664 8766 3634 8747
      3633 8749 3634 8751 3632 8752 3616 8791
      3622 8795 3626 8794 3631 8796 3635 8798
      3637 8800 3639 8801 3645 8806
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 239DEG 49KT 3630 8803

10