Alert archive / Wisconsin / Tornado Watches in 2018
Tornado Watch 395
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 3, 2018, 4:31 PM EDT for 11 counties in Michigan; 5 counties in Minnesota; 40 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 3, 2018, 4:31 PM EDT (20:31 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 4, 2018, 12:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 70 kt
All 56 counties
Alger County, MI, Baraga County, MI, Delta County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Gogebic County, MI, Houghton County, MI, Iron County, MI, Marquette County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Ontonagon County, MI, Schoolcraft County, MI, Carlton County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Pine County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Ashland County, WI, Barron County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Brown County, WI, Buffalo County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Clark County, WI, Door County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Iron County, WI, Jackson County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Portage County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Vilas County, WI, Washburn County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Wood County, WI
The radar
The Duluth radar (KDLH), 194 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 70%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 40%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 70%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 50%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 4:56 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Oneida | 49 min |
| Oct 3, 4:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Ashland, Iron | 31 min |
| Oct 3, 6:37 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Pierce, Saint Croix | 53 min |
| Oct 3, 6:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MQT | Dickinson, Menominee | 28 min |
| Oct 3, 7:04 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Dunn, Pierce, Saint Croix | 41 min |
| Oct 3, 7:06 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | MPX | Pierce, Saint Croix | 27 min |
| Oct 3, 7:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MQT | Delta, Menominee | 26 min |
| Oct 3, 7:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ARX | Wabasha | 32 min |
| Oct 3, 7:44 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, Pepin, Pierce | 46 min |
| Oct 3, 7:56 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Langlade, Marathon, Menominee, Shawano | 14 min |
| Oct 3, 8:07 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | GRB | Langlade, Menominee, Shawano | 23 min |
| Oct 3, 8:20 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | GRB | Marathon, Shawano | 25 min |
| Oct 3, 8:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Menominee, Oconto | 19 min |
| Oct 3, 8:31 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | MQT | Delta, Menominee | 14 min |
| Oct 3, 8:44 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | GRB | Menominee, Shawano | 18 min |
| Oct 3, 9:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MQT | Baraga, Dickinson, Iron, Marquette | 32 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 527 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 557 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 541 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 3:31 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dickinson, Gogebic, Iron, Menominee | 89 min |
| Oct 3, 6:13 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dodge, Fillmore, Freeborn, Houston, Mower, Olmsted and 1 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Wisconsin, 2018Tornado Watches in Michigan, 2018Tornado Watches in Minnesota, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.