Alert archive / North Carolina / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 374

September 14, 201819 counties in North Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Sep 14, 2018, 4:48 PM EDT for 19 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 14, 2018, 4:48 PM EDT (20:48 UTC)
Expired
Sep 14, 2018, 11:00 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Beaufort County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Craven County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Greene County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC

The radar

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
5%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
5%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
20%

Warnings issued inside it

10 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 14, 6:28 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyRAHJohnston, Wayne4 hr
Sep 14, 9:09 PM EDTTornado WarningMHXDuplin, Lenoir21 min
Sep 14, 9:10 PM EDTTornado WarningMHXCraven, Jones, Onslow35 min
Sep 14, 9:21 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHWayne24 min
Sep 14, 9:39 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyRAHWayne6 hr
Sep 14, 9:43 PM EDTTornado WarningMHXDuplin, Jones, Lenoir47 min
Sep 14, 10:20 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHWayne9 min
Sep 14, 10:26 PM EDTTornado WarningMHXCarteret, Jones, Onslow34 min
Sep 14, 10:31 PM EDTTornado WarningMHXDuplin, Greene, Jones, Lenoir, Onslow44 min
Sep 14, 10:37 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyMHXDuplin, Jones, Lenoir, Onslow16 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 85 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2018-09-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 370 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2018-09-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 238 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
370 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
567 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
238 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
203 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
3.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

442 
WWUS20 KWNS 142041
SEL4  
SPC WW 142041
NCZ000-CWZ000-150300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  central and eastern North Carolina
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until
  1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible

SUMMARY...Convection in inland migrating bands, within the outer
northeast quadrant of Florence, may continue to pose a risk for
tornadoes through this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
either side of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Goldsboro NC
to 70 miles east southeast of New Bern NC. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado
watch number 373. Watch number 373 will not be in effect after
440 PM EDT. 

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 12040.

...Kerr

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 13, 8:25 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Carteret, Craven, Hyde, Jones, Onslow and 1 more2 hr
Sep 13, 8:59 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBeaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Duplin, Greene and 9 more10 hr
Sep 14, 12:56 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Duplin, Greene and 9 more3 hr
Sep 14, 6:02 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Duplin, Hyde and 9 more88 min
Sep 14, 6:58 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Carteret, Chowan, Craven, Dare and 20 more10 hr
Sep 14, 11:26 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven and 19 more2 hr
Sep 14, 3:42 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Carteret, Craven, Duplin, Edgecombe, Greene and 10 more2 hr
Sep 14, 7:09 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Caswell, Durham, Granville, Halifax, Northampton and 4 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.