Tornado Warning 16, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
632 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous Hurricane Florence will slowly drift WSW through NE SC
through tonight. Florence will continue to bring a prolonged
period of significant and life threatening impacts across
eastern North Carolina. The remnants of the system will lift
north into the Ohio Valley early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 630 PM Friday...Widespread heavy rain bands continue to
rotate across eastern NC producing torrential and dangerous
flooding rainfall. The heaviest and most persistent band is
occurring from Carteret County northwest across Jones into
Lenoir County, where about one inch/hour rainfall rates are
occurring. Overall, upwards of 20 inches of rainfall has been
recorded along the southern coast. Flash Flood Warnings remain
in effect for most of the CWA.

Additionally, storm surge is still a threat and will continue
to be (See latest TCV and HLS), and with main threat
transitioning to catastrophic and historic flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 5 PM Fri...Flooding rains will continue Sat, and
transition to the western FA as center of Florence continues to
drift westward through SC. QPF amounts generally 3-6 inches,
with locally higher where feeder bands persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Fri...The slow motion will keep threat for very
heavy rain over the wrn tier with cont threat of catastrophic
flooding with storm total rainfall reaching 20 to 30 inches and
locally in spots. The cont gusty SE winds will also cont the
threat for storm surge flooding...espcly over the srn coast,
Pamlico Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, as well as adjacent
streams and bays.

For more details on the potentially serious impacts to Eastern
NC, please take a look at our latest storm briefing by copy and
pasting this url:

https:/www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf

Sunday through Wed...Florence is expected to eventually drift
away from the region early next week. There remains much
uncertainty to where Florence will move, and where any residual
associated organized rainfall will occur. Have cont likely pops
Sunday through Monday then cont broad high chance PoPs for the
area into rest of the period. High temps look to be near normal
again with lots of clouds around with highs in the 80s, and
lows will be mostly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through 00Z Sunday/...
As of 630 PM Friday...Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions will
continue through this TAF cycle with periods of torrential rain
which is causing historic flooding. Very strong gusty winds will
add to the very hazardous flying conditions.

Long Term /Sat through Monday/...
As of 4 am Thu...Fri night into Saturday, there will likely be
a prolonged period of sub- VFR conditions with numerous showers
and widely scattered thunderstorms will continue. For Sunday and
Mon will cont to have decent coverage of showers with bouts of
MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 630 PM Friday...With the center of Tropical Storm Florence
now moving slowly inland near the NC/SC border, winds are
starting to diminish across our northern marine zones, where we
have scaled back to Small Craft Advisories. Tropical Storm
Warnings remain in effect elsewhere for at least one more cycle.
Seas are dropping to 7-12 feet over the far northern waters, but
continue at 15-20 feet over the central and southern waters.
Very dangerous marine conditions will continue and all mariners
should remain off the water through the short term period as
Tropical Storm Florence moves southwest of the area.

Long Term /Sat through Monday/...
As of 500 PM Tue...Tropical storm force winds finally expected
to end later Sat or Sat evening. SE winds are forecast to
subside to 15-20 kt Sun and Mon. Seas will remain very high
ranging from 9 to 16 feet Sat to 5 to 7 ft Mon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1130 AM Fri...Likely historic rainfall event unfolding
over NC at this time. Hurricane Florence's slow crawl to the
west continues to bring heavy rain to eastern NC. Heaviest
rainfall at the time of this issuance was over Carteret County
where over a foot of rain has already fallen. Attention will be
on the location/training of rainbands over the area which can
quickly drop 3-4 inches of rain. The heaviest axis of rain over
Carteret/Craven/Pamlico Counties will drift west later
today/tonight bringing torrential rain over Onslow/Duplin/Jones
Counties. Areas north of HWY 264 are also vulnerable to flash
flooding, but it will be more dependent on the exact placement
and duration of rain bands. Florence's slow westward movement
will keep rainbands over the area into late Saturday and
possible Sunday, though by that time they will be more
widespread and have lesser intensity. Flash flood warnings in
effect south of HWY 264 which will likely be extended well into
the weekend.

With our rainfall forecast on track with 1 to 2 feet with amounts
around 40" possible for our coastal counties we continue to
highlight catastrophic river flooding following the passage of
Florence. Areas that flooded in Duplin/Onslow/Carteret/Jones
Counties during the record flood of Floyd can expect to flood
again. The ambiguity is a row of counties north. We are trending
wetter in the Neuse River basins with rainfall totals over 12"
which will support major flood stage. Another tier of counties
north into the Tar Basin the rainfall forecast is 8-12". Should
the rainfall forecast shift upwards one more row of counties
than correspondingly the flood levels be elevated another
category. The extend and severity of the river flooding will
cause trouble for evacuees trying to return to the area, with
flooding likely to start this weekend and deteriorate next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ044-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
     Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ135>137-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ130-131.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150-152.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSA/TL
NEAR TERM...CTC/TL
SHORT TERM...HSA/TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CTC/TL
MARINE...RF/CTC/TL
HYDROLOGY...MHX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1141 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

NCZ029-044>047-080-081-151545-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-
1141 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Storm Surge Warning.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Storm Surge Warning.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ079-091-151545-
Greene-Lenoir-
1141 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ090-151545-
Duplin-
1141 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ092>094-151545-
Jones-Craven-Pamlico-
1141 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Storm Surge Warning.
   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Storm Surge Warning.
   Hurricane Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ103-104-151545-
Outer Banks Dare-Outer Banks Hyde-
1141 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ095-098-151545-
Carteret-Onslow-
1141 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.