Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 151

June 2, 201848 counties in Arkansas; 17 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jun 2, 2018, 2:19 PM CDT for 48 counties in Arkansas; 17 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 10 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 2, 2018, 2:19 PM CDT (19:19 UTC)
Expired: Jun 3, 2018, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 10 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 65 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Baxter County, AR, Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Greene County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Logan County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Marion County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sharp County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, Butler County, MO, Carter County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Howell County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Texas County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 2%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 20%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 90%

Warnings issued inside it

35 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 2, 2:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Newton, Searcy	39 min
Jun 2, 2:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Pope, Van Buren	39 min
Jun 2, 3:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Polk, Scott	42 min
Jun 2, 4:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Newton, Pope, Searcy	47 min
Jun 2, 4:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Pope, Van Buren	42 min
Jun 2, 4:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Pope	41 min
Jun 2, 4:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dent, Texas	53 min
Jun 2, 5:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Newton, Pope, Searcy, Van Buren	43 min
Jun 2, 5:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Garland, Perry, Saline, Yell	39 min
Jun 2, 5:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Perry, Pope, Yell	30 min
Jun 2, 5:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dent, Shannon	45 min
Jun 2, 5:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Newton, Pope, Searcy, Van Buren	32 min
Jun 2, 5:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Faulkner, Perry, Pope, Yell	49 min
Jun 2, 5:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dent, Shannon, Texas	62 min
Jun 2, 5:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Garland, Perry, Saline, Yell	31 min
Jun 2, 6:41 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Garland, Perry, Saline, Yell	3 hr
Jun 2, 6:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Shannon	61 min
Jun 2, 6:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Garland, Perry, Saline	45 min
Jun 2, 7:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Garland, Hot Spring, Saline	29 min
Jun 2, 7:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Howell, Oregon, Shannon	59 min
Jun 2, 7:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Baxter, Marion	42 min
Jun 2, 7:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Marion, Searcy	47 min
Jun 2, 8:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Oregon	50 min
Jun 2, 8:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Randolph	45 min
Jun 2, 8:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Oregon	14 min
Jun 2, 9:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Greene, Lawrence, Randolph	48 min
Jun 2, 9:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Sharp	8 min
Jun 2, 9:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Independence, Jackson	32 min
Jun 2, 9:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Lawrence, Poinsett	44 min
Jun 2, 10:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Jackson, Woodruff	24 min
Jun 2, 10:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Cross, Poinsett	53 min
Jun 2, 11:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Woodruff	12 min
Jun 2, 11:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Cross, St. Francis	38 min
Jun 2, 11:23 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Lee, St. Francis	37 min
Jun 2, 11:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee, Phillips	33 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 250 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2602 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -176 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 909 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 63 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 2, 1:33 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Baxter, Boone, Clark, Clay, Cleburne and 42 more	117 min
Jun 2, 3:42 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Baxter, Boone, Clay, Cleburne, Conway and 41 more	2 hr
Jun 2, 6:31 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Cross and 33 more	89 min
Jun 2, 12:50 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrew, Atchison, Bates, Buchanan, Cass, Clay and 10 more	55 min
Jun 2, 5:48 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barton, Bates, Benton, Camden, Carroll, Cass and 25 more	4 hr
Jun 2, 9:12 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Callaway, Camden, Cape Girardeau, Cedar, Cole and 27 more	2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2018 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.