Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
622 PM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers/storms will move across the area in the next few
hours, which will temporarily restrict conditions. Otherwise, vfr
conditions will prevail.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 308 PM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday Night

Some isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA have developed over the past
couple hrs over NWRN portions of the CWA...activity forming just
ahead of an approaching cold front located just NW of AR early this
afternoon. This activity will continue to develop and spread SE over
the rest of the afternoon into the evening hrs as the cold front
drops SE into the state. Expect isolated to scattered strong to SVR
storms...with large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards.
Temps ahead of the convection have warmed into the upper 80s to  mid
90s...with dewpts in the low to mid 70s. This results in high
instability given the cooling temps aloft...with forecast CAPE in
the 3-4k+ CAPE range. Some locally heavy rainfall may result in some
isolated flash flooding as well...but not expected widespread heavy
rainfall given the convection is moving SE and not expecting much
training.

The high temps and dewpts have also resulted into high heat index
values...with observed values across the SERN quarter of the state
over 105 in many spots for heat index values. As a result...will
keep the Heat Adv in effect for these areas through 00Z. Some
isolated areas outside the adv may see high heat adv values over 105
..but the convection looks to arrive soon enough to see some relief
over the next hr or two.

By late this evening into the overnight period...expect the
convection to move south and SE of the state...with SFC high
pressure moving towards AR. This will result in much lower dewpts and
cooler temps for the majority of the short term period. Expect highs
on Sun and Mon to only reach the upper 70s to low 90s. Lows by Sun
morning will drop down into the upper 50s to mid 60s across the NWRN
half of the CWA...to the upper 60s to mid 70s across the SE half. By
Mon morning...the SFC high will settle over the state...with lows
dropping down into the mid 50s to mid 60s. A new upper shortwave
trough will approach the state by Mon night...with some increased
chances for SHRA/TSRA for WRN sections of the state to end the short
term period.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

An amplifying ridge of high pressure centered to our west over the
Texas Panhandle will dominate the long term forecast. A few areas of
enhanced vorticity embedded in the mean flow will rotate through the
state and provide rain chances through next week.

Initially, northerly flow in the mid and upper levels will allow
drier and cooler air to linger for a few days. However, a stalled
frontal boundary to our south will allow showers and thunderstorms
to impact the southern and western portions of the state. Otherwise,
the next chance of rain will be later in the week when the
aforementioned boundary lifts northward through the area. This will
also help bring a warmer and more moist airmass back to the state.

High temperatures will quickly go from the mid to upper 80s, to
lower to mid 90s by mid week, with Heat Index values in the upper
90s to near 100 degrees by next weekend. Lows will also steadily
rise, with lower to mid 60s overnight becoming lower to mid 70s.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Grant-Jefferson-Lincoln-
Lonoke-Monroe-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-White-Woodruff.
&&

Aviation...57

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
105 PM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
105 PM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Hot and humid conditions will continue this afternoon, with heat
index values ranging from the upper 90s to around 105 degrees. The
highest heat indices will be across central and southern parts of
the state.

A cold front will cross the state from the north tonight. Ahead of
the front, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon from Little Rock northward. Storms will build into areas
farther south this evening. Severe weather appears likely statewide.

Storms that become severe will have the capability of producing
strong to damaging winds and quarter size hail or larger.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

After dry and cooler conditions Sunday and Monday, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night into
Tuesday. Precipitation will be most likely across the southern and
western counties. At this time, the chance of widespread hazardous
weather appears low.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into this
evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
516 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             2 NW MORELAND           35.39N  93.03W
06/02/2018  M2.50 INCH       POPE               AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800090

230

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
520 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             3 S HECTOR              35.42N  92.98W
06/02/2018  M2.75 INCH       POPE               AR   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF BASEBALL SIZE HAIL FROM THE HECTOR
            AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800091

CROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
538 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     HAIL             1 SW ROCK SPRINGS       35.42N  92.99W
06/02/2018  E3.00 INCH       POPE               AR   PUBLIC

            THREE-INCH DIAMETER HAIL FELL ON BUCK MOUNTAIN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800092

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
556 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W ATKINS              35.24N  92.98W
06/02/2018                   POPE               AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            POWERLINES AND POLES SNAPPED, LINES HANGING JUST FEET
            ABOVE THE GROUND ACROSS HIGHWAY 64 BETWEEN ATKINS AND
            POTTSVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800093

CROSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
628 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

ARZ038-039-042-043-054-030015-
Hot Spring AR-Perry AR-Saline AR-Yell AR-Garland AR-
628 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PERRY...CENTRAL
GARLAND...WESTERN SALINE...SOUTH CENTRAL YELL AND NORTH CENTRAL HOT
SPRING COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 628 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jessieville, or 10 miles northwest of Hot Springs Village, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hot Springs...                    Hot Springs Village...
Lonsdale...                       Jessieville...
Hot Springs National Park...      Avilla...
Magnet Cove...                    Carter Cove Park...
Nance...                          Mountain Valley...
Lake Catherine State Park...      Paron...
Gulpha Gorge...                   Grape...
Hamilton...                       Fourche Junction...
Bland...                          Crows...
Hollis...                         Reform...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 9339 3501 9325 3469 9258 3437 9289
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 307DEG 15KT 3477 9307

62

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