Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2018
Mesoscale Discussion 752
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 16, 2018, 3:06 PM CDT for 16 counties in Minnesota; 13 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 84 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 16, 2018, 3:06 PM CDT (20:06 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 16, 2018, 4:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 84 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 29 counties
Big Stone County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Grant County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Pope County, MN, Renville County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Beadle County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brown County, SD, Clark County, SD, Codington County, SD, Day County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Grant County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Marshall County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Spink County, SD
The radar
The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 142 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 142 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 177 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -361 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1088 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 283 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 383 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 9.2
The text
As transmitted.
930
ACUS11 KWNS 162006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162006
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-162130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0752
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018
Areas affected...Portions of northeast SD...far southeast ND...and
western MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 162006Z - 162130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
area around 5-7pm CDT. A few of these storms will be severe, with an
attendant threat of a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.
A tornado watch will likely be issued by 4pm CDT.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a cumulus field
expanding/spreading north across the region this afternoon, as the
boundary layer continues to warm/moisten behind earlier convection.
As weak mid-level ascent overspreads the eastern Dakotas from the
west and a low-level jet strengthens into early evening, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop along a front stretching from
northeast South Dakota east/northeast into central Minnesota.
South of this front, very rich moisture and temps in the 80s are
combining with steep lapse rates aloft to yield around 2000-3000
J/kg of MLCAPE currently. Considerable veering of winds with height
will be favorable for supercells, capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes. A strong tornado or two may be possible,
owing to ample storm-relative helicity accompanying the
strengthening low-level jet. This particular threat may be highly
regulated by RFD evolutions that are characteristic of HP
structures, owing to some weakness in mid-level storm-relative flow.
Regardless, a tornado watch will likely be issued by 4pm CDT.
..Picca/Grams.. 06/16/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 44209679 44259851 44799875 45559886 46069754 46509502
46319459 45549439 44439510 44209679SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 8:29 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Douglas, Grant and 11 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 16, 3:38 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Big Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Grant, Kandiyohi, Lac qui Parle and 9 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 16, 6:21 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Big Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Grant, Kandiyohi and 13 more | 114 min |
| Jun 16, 9:13 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Campbell, Corson, Dewey, Edmunds, Faulk and 4 more | 92 min |
| Jun 16, 3:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bennett, Brule, Buffalo, Edmunds, Faulk, Haakon and 14 more | 90 min |
| Jun 16, 3:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bennett, Buffalo, Edmunds, Faulk, Haakon, Hand and 13 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 16, 6:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bennett, Buffalo, Dewey, Edmunds, Faulk, Haakon and 14 more | 91 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2018Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2018Every mesoscale discussion in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.