Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2018
Mesoscale Discussion 749
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 16, 2018, 8:29 AM CDT for 17 counties in Minnesota; Richland County, North Dakota. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 16, 2018, 8:29 AM CDT (13:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 16, 2018, 10:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Koochiching County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Richland County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 128 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 254 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1060 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -274 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 548 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -78 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 54 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.9
The text
As transmitted.
350
ACUS11 KWNS 161330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161329
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-161530-
Mesoscale Discussion 0749
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0829 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018
Areas affected...Portions of Minnesota and extreme southeast North
Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 161329Z - 161530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A line of strong to locally severe storms may continue
north/northeast through at least 10am CDT, posing a threat of a few
strong/damaging gusts and perhaps isolated hail reports. However,
due to the localized nature of the threat and uncertainty regarding
the persistence of the line, watch issuance is not currently
expected.
DISCUSSION...A leading line/trailing stratiform convective system
has organized across parts of North Dakota and Minnesota this
morning and is progressing north/northeast around 35 kt. Although
12Z soundings and mesoanalysis suggest notable mixed-layer
inhibition is present, low-level stability does not appear large
enough to prevent stronger downdraft momentum from reaching the
surface. Recent observed gusts around 45-55 mph seem to confirm this
thinking.
The presence of aforementioned convective inhibition casts some
uncertainty on the maintenance of this system, but steep mid-level
lapse rates, ample effective shear, and northeasterly low-level flow
(i.e., into the line) may maintain convective intensity through
mid/late morning. The strongest cells, capable of locally damaging
winds and perhaps isolated severe hail, would likely be focused
along a theta-e ridge axis from west-central to north-central
Minnesota. Nonetheless, watch issuance is not currently anticipated
due to uncertainty regarding the persistence/organization of this
threat.
..Picca/Grams.. 06/16/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 46059723 46509741 47079707 47909620 48659539 48789496
48749462 48509361 47549402 46619467 45819501 45509572
45779683 45919705 46059723SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 3:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Big Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Grant, Kandiyohi, Lac qui Parle and 10 more | 84 min |
| Jun 16, 3:38 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Big Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Grant, Kandiyohi, Lac qui Parle and 9 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 16, 6:21 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Big Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Grant, Kandiyohi and 13 more | 114 min |
| Jun 16, 9:13 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dickey, Emmons, LaMoure, Logan, McIntosh | 92 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2018Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2018Every mesoscale discussion in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.