River Flood Warning 12, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1248 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Widespread low cloud cover and periods of light to moderate rain
will continue through the next 24 hours. Our TAF sites will
continue to have reductions in ceilings and visibilities, with
conditions ranging from MVFR to IFR. LIFR conditions appear to
be a low possibility at this time, so not incorporating into this
TAF package. Will monitor, however, and make amendments as
needed.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 632 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR to IFR conditions will persist for the majority of the next
24 hours. Periods of rain will continue on and off through Monday
night and Tuesday. Reduced visibility will be a problem, occasionally,
along with gusty winds.

41

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

.Flash flood watch extended through Tuesday evening...

Cold and unseasonable temperatures continue with upper 30s to
lower 40s across West Central Texas this afternoon. Near steady
temperatures will continue tonight and Tuesday, with continued
cold advection. Winds will not be as strong, however, decreasing
to the 10 to 15 mph range. The upper storm system over New Mexico
will continue to bring bands of showers with isolated
thunderstorms over the cold air at the surface. Models indicate
the next band of showers to spread north this evening, with the
heaviest rainfall along and east of a Sonora...San Angelo...Abilene
line. WPC has 1 to 2 1/2 inches through 7 PM Tuesday in this
area. With saturated soils, and little evaporation due to cold
temperatures, any rainfall will run off quickly. Thus the flash
flood watch has been extended.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday))

A shallow cold airmass will remain over the area through
Wednesday, with temperatures slowly moderating by the end
of the week and into next weekend. Temperatures will remain
below normal through the extended period, with highs on
Wednesday in the lower 50s, warming into the 60s Friday
through Sunday.

An upper level low will develop over the Desert Southwest
tonight and remain nearly stationary through Wednesday night
before shearing east as an open wave across the Plains on
Friday. This setup will favor continued high rain chances
through Friday as disturbances out ahead of the upper low
lift northeast across the area. Another cold front looks to
move through the area on Saturday in wake of the upper trough
moving across the Plains. Rain chances will persist through the
weekend, mainly over southern sections behind the front as yet
another upper level system develops west of the area.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 42  50  46  54 /  50  60  50  70
San Angelo 	 41  50  44  55 /  60  60  60  70
Junction 	 43  52  47  56 /  70  60  50  80
Brownwood 	 41  51  47  56 /  80  70  40  70
Sweetwater 	 41  48  44  51 /  30  50  60  60
Ozona      	 41  47  44  53 /  60  70  60  70

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-
Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sutton-Taylor-Tom Green.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
201 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-161915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
201 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers, some producing heavy rainfall, will continue through
tonight. The best area for heavy rainfall will be along and east
of a Sonora...San Angelo...Abilene line. As the ground is
saturated, there is a threat for flash flooding and river
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers, some producing heavy rainfall, will be possible through
the end of the work. As the ground is saturated, there is a threat
for flash flooding and river flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1137 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MASON                   30.75N  99.23W
10/15/2018                   MASON              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RANCH ROAD 386 FROM MASON TO FREDONIA CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS. SEVERAL STREETS IN
            MASON CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. FM 1871 SOUTH OF MASON
            CLOSED FOR SEVERAL MILES DUE TO FLOODED LOW WATER
            CROSSINGS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800123

SN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1140 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JUNCTION                30.49N  99.77W
10/15/2018                   KIMBLE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED IN KIMBLE COUNTY DUE TO FLOODED
            LOW WATER CROSSINGS, INCLUDING HIGHWAY 377 FROM THE
            COUNTY LINE TO JUNCTION, RANCH ROAD 385 FROM LONDON TO
            HARPER, RANCH ROAD 479, AND FM 2169.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800124

SN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
131 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SE JUNCTION           30.43N  99.70W
10/16/2018                   KIMBLE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF'S OFFICE REPORTED JOHNSON FORK CREEK FLOWING
            OVER FM 2169.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800125

SN