Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
414 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

...Flash Flood Watch continues in effect today until 7 PM...

An upper low is over western Arizona early this morning. Water
vapor satellite imagery shows our area on the western side of a
subtropical moisture plume, extending across parts of Mexico and
the southeastern two-thirds of Texas. A large area of showers,
associated with an impulse embedded in southwest flow aloft and
out ahead of the main low, has been overspreading our area during
the overnight hours. The heavier rainfall has affected our east-
central (Heartland) and southeastern (Northwest Hill Country)
counties. With saturated ground and runoff, flooding of several
roads has been reported in Mason and Kimble Counties. River
flooding is also occurring in these counties.

Flooding concerns continue for today with additional showers
expected on saturated ground. The Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect for most of West Central Texas until 7 PM. The
aforementioned upper low will meander over Arizona today and
tonight, and could have additional shortwave energy moving over
our area in southwest flow aloft. Showers are likely tonight, but
the coverage and rainfall rates should be a little less than what
is presently occurring.

The unseasonably cold airmass will remain entrenched across our
area today and tonight. With cloudy skies, temperatures are
expected to remain nearly steady in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The record low maximum temperatures today are expected to be
broken at Abilene (53 degrees, set in 1970) and San Angelo (52
degrees, set in 1970).

19

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The wet pattern will continue to affect most of the area through
at least Thursday. An upper level low will continue to spin over
the Four Corners region through Thursday, before lifting off to
the northeast into the Central Plains Thursday night into Friday.
Ahead of this low, southerly flow will continue to pull mid and
upper level moisture and shortwave energy north out of Mexico
across much of the central portions of Texas. This, combined with
low level Gulf of Mexico moisture will continue to provide a good
chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms over our forecast
area through Thursday. Although we continue to expect at least
scattered precipitation both Wednesday and Thursday, there is some
uncertainty in coverage and rainfall amounts, so will hold off on
extending the Flash Flood Watch beyond this evening.

By Friday, the Four Corners has opened up into a wave across the
central U. S., moving away from the area. Lingering moisture, and
trailing shortwave energy will keep rain chances in the forecast
through Saturday.

As we move into the second half of next weekend and early next
week, medium range models develop another upper low to the west of
the area, as another cold front also moves through the CWA. This
could provide another round of rain chances for our region. For
not have gone with Slight Chance to Chance PoPs for most of the
area.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 43  43  50  46 /  80  70  80  60
San Angelo 	 42  42  50  44 /  90  70  80  70
Junction 	 42  42  52  47 / 100  70  70  60
Brownwood 	 42  42  51  47 / 100  80  80  40
Sweetwater 	 44  42  48  44 /  80  60  70  70
Ozona      	 43  42  47  44 /  90  70  80  70

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-
Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sutton-Taylor-Tom Green.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
201 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-161915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
201 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers, some producing heavy rainfall, will continue through
tonight. The best area for heavy rainfall will be along and east
of a Sonora...San Angelo...Abilene line. As the ground is
saturated, there is a threat for flash flooding and river
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers, some producing heavy rainfall, will be possible through
the end of the work. As the ground is saturated, there is a threat
for flash flooding and river flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1137 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MASON                   30.75N  99.23W
10/15/2018                   MASON              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RANCH ROAD 386 FROM MASON TO FREDONIA CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS. SEVERAL STREETS IN
            MASON CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. FM 1871 SOUTH OF MASON
            CLOSED FOR SEVERAL MILES DUE TO FLOODED LOW WATER
            CROSSINGS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800123

SN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1140 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JUNCTION                30.49N  99.77W
10/15/2018                   KIMBLE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED IN KIMBLE COUNTY DUE TO FLOODED
            LOW WATER CROSSINGS, INCLUDING HIGHWAY 377 FROM THE
            COUNTY LINE TO JUNCTION, RANCH ROAD 385 FROM LONDON TO
            HARPER, RANCH ROAD 479, AND FM 2169.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800124

SN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
131 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SE JUNCTION           30.43N  99.70W
10/16/2018                   KIMBLE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF'S OFFICE REPORTED JOHNSON FORK CREEK FLOWING
            OVER FM 2169.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800125

SN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
428 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 SE MASON             30.65N  99.11W
10/16/2018                   MASON              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF'S OFFICE REPORTED BEAVER CREEK WAS FLOWING OVER
            HIGHWAY 87 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MASON. HIGHWAY 87 HAS
            BEEN CLOSED SOUTH OF MASON. IN ADDITION, HIGHWAY 71 IN
            NORTHEASTERN MASON COUNTY HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800126

SN