Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
632 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR to IFR conditions will persist for the majority of the next
24 hours. Periods of rain will continue on and off through Monday
night and Tuesday. Reduced visibility will be a problem, occasionally,
along with gusty winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

..Flash flood watch extended through Tuesday evening...

Cold and unseasonable temperatures continue with upper 30s to
lower 40s across West Central Texas this afternoon. Near steady
temperatures will continue tonight and Tuesday, with continued
cold advection. Winds will not be as strong, however, decreasing
to the 10 to 15 mph range. The upper storm system over New Mexico
will continue to bring bands of showers with isolated
thunderstorms over the cold air at the surface. Models indicate
the next band of showers to spread north this evening, with the
heaviest rainfall along and east of a Sonora...San Angelo...Abilene
line. WPC has 1 to 2 1/2 inches through 7 PM Tuesday in this
area. With saturated soils, and little evaporation due to cold
temperatures, any rainfall will run off quickly. Thus the flash
flood watch has been extended.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday))

A shallow cold airmass will remain over the area through
Wednesday, with temperatures slowly moderating by the end
of the week and into next weekend. Temperatures will remain
below normal through the extended period, with highs on
Wednesday in the lower 50s, warming into the 60s Friday
through Sunday.

An upper level low will develop over the Desert Southwest
tonight and remain nearly stationary through Wednesday night
before shearing east as an open wave across the Plains on
Friday. This setup will favor continued high rain chances
through Friday as disturbances out ahead of the upper low
lift northeast across the area. Another cold front looks to
move through the area on Saturday in wake of the upper trough
moving across the Plains. Rain chances will persist through the
weekend, mainly over southern sections behind the front as yet
another upper level system develops west of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 39  43  42  55 / 100  90  50  60
San Angelo 	 38  42  41  51 /  90  90  60  60
Junction 	 39  43  43  53 / 100  90  70  60
Brownwood 	 39  41  41  52 / 100  90  80  70
Sweetwater 	 36  41  41  50 /  80  80  30  50
Ozona      	 39  41  41  51 /  90  80  60  70

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-
Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sutton-Taylor-Tom Green.

&&

41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
201 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-161915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
201 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers, some producing heavy rainfall, will continue through
tonight. The best area for heavy rainfall will be along and east
of a Sonora...San Angelo...Abilene line. As the ground is
saturated, there is a threat for flash flooding and river
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers, some producing heavy rainfall, will be possible through
the end of the work. As the ground is saturated, there is a threat
for flash flooding and river flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.