Tornado Warning 103, NWS Shreveport, LA

597 
WWUS54 KSHV 052251
SVSSHV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
451 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018

LAC127-052330-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0103.000000T0000Z-181105T2330Z/
Winn LA-
451 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CST FOR CENTRAL
WINN PARISH...
        
At 451 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located near Winnfield, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Winn Parish.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 9276 3186 9280 3192 9268 3183 9263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 243DEG 25KT 3186 9273 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

13

598 
WWUS54 KSHV 052301
SVSSHV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
501 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018

LAC127-052310-
/O.CAN.KSHV.TO.W.0103.000000T0000Z-181105T2330Z/
Winn LA-
501 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL WINN PARISH IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. 

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for north central
Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3181 9276 3186 9280 3192 9268 3183 9263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 248DEG 23KT 3188 9266 

$$

13

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
336 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/

Latest Visible Imagery coinciding with the latest Thermodynamic
Profile shows that the warm front which was along the SE TX and S
LA Coast this morning has moved northward and was now located near
a Tyler,Texas to Natchitoches, Louisiana to Natchez, Mississippi
line. Latest 18z NAM output suggests the warm front will move as
far north as the I-20 Corridor (maybe a little farther north
across NE LA) by 00z-03z this evening before the cold front to our
west and northwest catches it and pushes much of the anticipated
convection south and east with it. SHV's 18z sounding showed a
pre-warm frontal airmass with a capped atmosphere below 2kft with
MU CAPE values only near 600J/KG.

The atmosphere in the northward moving warm sector is moderately
unstable with CAPE values ranging between 10000-2000J/KG with
rather marginal 700-500mb lapse rates at or near 5-6C/km. What is
more concerning is the backing wind field the 12z/18z NAM output
is depicting in the lowest 3kft with 0-3km SRH values approaching
500m2s2 from the Lower Toledo Bend Reservoir north and east to
near Monroe, Louisiana between 21z and 03z this evening. All this
to suggest that if we can break the CAP along the returning warm
front, then strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, some
of which could produce isolated tornadoes, especially along the
warm frontal boundary itself.

For the forecast, have tapered pops from slight chance variety
in the extreme west to high end likely pops in the extreme east
for tonight before the convection ends across our southeast zones
after midnight.

Beyond tonight, upper flow to become almost zonal across the
Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley Tue/Tue Ngt but the frontal
boundary which pushes south of our region tonight will stall just
to our south on Tue and will quickly return back to the north as
a warm front Tuesday Night. Warm/moist air will work its way back
northward Tuesday Night and through isentropic processes, elevated
showers will recommence once again mainly along and north of the
I-20 Corridor Tuesday Night.

Short Term Prelim Temps/Pops to follow...13.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday Night/

A backdoor frontal boundary will slide in early on Wednesday
across the four state area. Ongoing showers and isolated
thunderstorms will slowly decrease in coverage across the ArkLaTex
from North to South from late morning into the early afternoon.
Fresh Canadian high pressure will be surging south quickly and
force the frontal boundary back south into the Gulf of Mexico by
Thursday.

However, the air mass remains shallow with overrunning moisture just
a few thousand feet overhead. The moist Southwest flow aloft will
focus over the area ahead of a broad upper-level trough across the
central Conus that will support post frontal elevated showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the region again by late Wednesday and
into all of Thursday and ending early on Friday with the next strong
cold front that will bring down some deep cold and dry air to scour
out all remaining moisture.

This 1032mb surface high pressure will build in right over the area
for some chilly below average morning lows this weekend. Highs too
will be cool, but somewhat sunny with the northwest flow aloft
keeping the pattern dry through the remainder of the forecast period.

/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1222 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018/

AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, LIFR/IFR slowly improving today to IFR/MVFR and
may do better than forecast with increasing sfc winds mixing
saturated air with some dry. A warm front is lifting across I-10
now and could reach I-20 by sundown with potentially severe TS to
develop overhead KTXK/KSHV and move ENE of KELD/KMLU by midnight.
VCTS in TAFS will be amended for convection with wind/vsby. Isold
FC possible with a potent midWest upper level storm tail ending
down over AR. Outlook better for Tues, but next system by sundown.
SFC winds will literally spin the dial over the next 24 hrs.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  76  61  68 /  30  10  60  50
MLU  59  76  59  69 /  70  10  50  50
DEQ  42  71  52  64 /  10   0  60  30
TXK  51  74  54  63 /  20  10  70  40
ELD  49  73  55  63 /  50  10  70  40
TYR  55  77  61  68 /  20  10  50  40
GGG  54  76  61  68 /  20   0  60  40
LFK  62  81  67  76 /  30  10  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

13/24/24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
952 AM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-061200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
952 AM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Conditions continue to materialize for a possible outbreak of
severe thunderstorms, some of which could produce isolated
tornadoes, across portions of the Four State Region later this
afternoon and through the evening hours. The greatest threat area
will be along and east of a line from the Lower Toledo Bend
Reservoir to near Carthage and Texarkana, Texas to near Prescott,
Arkansas. This includes most of South Central Arkansas and all of
Northern Louisiana. Along with the threat for isolated tornadoes
will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. This threat should
taper off from southwest to northeast after the midnight hour.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

After a dry day on Tuesday, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are back in the forecast for Wednesday through at
least Friday with the rainfall likely ending by later in the day
Friday. At this time, strong to severe thunderstorms do not appear
likely with this activity but we will continue to monitor the
storm system in association with the next round of rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters may be needed this afternoon and
tonight.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
339 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018

LAZ017-TXZ153-166-167-052215-
Sabine LA-Sabine TX-San Augustine TX-Shelby TX-
339 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SABINE PARISH...
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...NORTHEASTERN SAN AUGUSTINE AND NORTHWESTERN
SABINE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CST...

At 338 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
San Augustine, or 20 miles southeast of Center, moving east at 35
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Milam, Sexton and Toledo Bend Reservoir North.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near the Toledo Bend Reservoir, get out of the water and
move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out
to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3149 9406 3156 9408 3168 9379 3152 9372
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 254DEG 28KT 3153 9401

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
348 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018

LAZ018-052215-
Natchitoches LA-
348 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES PARISH
UNTIL 415 PM CST...

At 348 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles east of Many, or 14 miles southwest of Natchitoches, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Natchitoches, Provencal, Natchez, Bermuda and Flora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3154 9324 3154 9327 3162 9332 3179 9307
      3161 9295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 240DEG 24KT 3159 9325

13