Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1007 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.UPDATE...
To add replacing Tornado watch number 45 for entire cwa.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
No major changes to package with just a few tweaks to sky and
temps on the curve toward previously forecasted lows. Also, we
have expanded 00-06Z pops/wx into the 06-09Z slot. We can make
additional changes with counties first dropped from the new watch.
All products up to date with graphics on home page next in line.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018/

UPDATE...
To add remaining SE cwa parishes into Tornado watch 40

DISCUSSION...
All products have been reissued to add headline for all zones
groupings and to remove afternoon wording. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018/

AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA have developed across the Four-
State Region today, courtesy of an approaching strong upper level
disturbance from the west. This precipitation has been
intermittently affecting the majority of the terminals today, and
is expected to develop into a line of TSRA more less later this
evening /progressing from west to east along a cold front/. This
TAF forecast will not be an easy one, as will try to pinpoint
best timing of the precipitation. Some of these storms will be
capable of becoming severe with large hail, damaging wind gusts
and isolated tornadoes being the main threats. Will of course
amend as necessary. Otherwise, CIGS have risen to VFR early this
evening, but as anticipated to drop into the MVFR and possibly IFR
criteria after sunset. CIGS are poised to gradually improve to
VFR and precipitation will be coming to an end from west to east
towards the end of the TAF period, with perhaps the eastern
terminals hanging on to by tomorrow mid-morning VCSH. Southerly
winds will be intermittently breezy but is anticipated to drop to
below Lake Wind Advisory criteria overnight. Concurrently, winds
will be shifting to the west-northwest with the passage of a cold
front and thus could see -SHRA develop along the front, hence the
insertion of the -SHRA/VCSH towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  65  40  59 /  90  30  10   0
MLU  63  70  41  60 /  90  70  10   0
DEQ  47  60  33  57 /  90  10   0   0
TXK  50  61  37  56 /  90  20   0   0
ELD  56  66  37  58 /  90  50  10   0
TYR  50  63  38  61 /  80  10   0   0
GGG  52  64  37  60 /  80  20   0   0
LFK  57  66  40  65 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

24/29

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
201 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>012-017-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-141100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Sabine-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
201 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Tornado Watch #40 is in effect until 10 PM CDT tonight. This is a
particularly dangerous situation.

Severe thunderstorms are likely ahead of a dryline and cold front this
afternoon through this evening and overnight. Threats of large
hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and locally heavy rainfall are
all possible during this event. The severe potential will shift to
more of a damaging wind threat as storms evolve into a squall
line tonight just ahead of the cold front. The severe threat
should be ending prior to daybreak on Saturday. Total rainfall
amounts up to three to four inches will be possible across parts
of north central Louisiana and south central Arkansas, increasing
the threat of isolated flash flooding across these areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Thunderstorms will be gradually ending from west to east with a
cold frontal passage early Saturday morning, bringing an end to
the severe threat. Therefore, no hazardous weather is expected at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators and storm spotters will likely be needed this afternoon
and into the overnight and early morning hours of Saturday.

LAZ013-014-018>022-141100-
Jackson-Ouachita-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
201 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Louisiana and northwest Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Severe thunderstorms are likely this evening and overnight.
Threats of large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and locally
heavy rainfall are all possible during this event. The severe
potential will shift to more of a damaging wind threat as storms
evolve into a squall line tonight just ahead of the cold front.
The severe threat should be ending prior to daybreak on Saturday.
Total event rainfall amounts up to three to four inches will be
possible across parts of north central Louisiana and south central
Arkansas, increasing the threat of isolated flash flooding across
these areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Thunderstorms will be gradually ending from west to east with a
cold frontal passage early Saturday morning, bringing an end to
the severe threat. Therefore, no hazardous weather is expected at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators and storm spotters will likely be needed this afternoon
and into the overnight and early morning hours of Saturday.

09

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1108 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 PM     HAIL             KILGORE                 32.39N 94.87W
04/13/2018  E1.00 INCH       GREGG              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1111 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW WHITE OAK          32.54N 94.86W
04/13/2018                   GREGG              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN, BLOCKING FM ROAD 3272 IN
            WHITE OAK.

&&

20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW HENDERSON         32.17N 94.86W
04/13/2018                   RUSK               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE REPORTED ON HOME 5000 BLOCK OF SH 64
            WITH ENTRAPMENT. INJURIES UNKNOWN AT THIS
            TIME.

&&

25