Severe Thunderstorm Warning 297, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
622 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

A couple of upper level impulses will interact with a quasi-
stationary front to produce some strong to severe thunderstorms
into this evening. The surface front is currently located from
about Columbia to Joplin. The first upper level impulse is
currently moving out of northeastern NE into IA. Convection is
beginning to fire ahead of this impulse from southern IA into
northeast KS. The second impulse is a leftover MCV currently
moving into north central OK. Visible satellite imagery is
showing what looks like an old outflow boundary extending from
north central AR through north central OK. This seems to be
providing the focus for the northeast OK storms at this time.

Convection associated with these impulses will be on the increase
from late this afternoon into this evening. These storms will
eventually congeal into a complex as they move through the area
overnight. Primary severe threats will be strong winds and large
hail. As the front shifts southward on Friday...afternoon
convection will be more confined to the MO-AR border region.
Temperatures overnight will fall to around 70 with highs on Friday
in the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

There will be a brief lull in the weather from Friday night into
early Sunday. It should be dry with daytime highs in the upper 80s
and overnight lows around 70.

The next system begins to approach the area Sunday as a short wave
moves up over the ridge and begins to dig into the Central Plains.
This system should bring some more widespread rain to the area
which will provide further drought relief. This system will
affect the weather over the region through Tuesday. By Tuesday
night...high pressure begins to move back in both at the surface
and aloft. This will bring in a cooler and drier Canadian air mass that
will remain over the area through the forecast period. Highs mid
to late week will be in the low to mid 80s with lows in low to mid
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Convection has developed over southeast Kansas and northeast
Oklahoma and will begin to affect the KJLN terminal by 00z. Two
areas to the northwest and southwest of the area will eventually
congeal into a convective complex later this evening. This will
affect all terminals by 03-05z and continue to affect the area
overnight. Outside of thunderstorm areas...VFR conditions will
prevail but will definitely have MVFR ceilings and visibilities
where thunderstorms are occurring.

Thunderstorms will once again fire during the afternoon on Friday.
At this time expect this activity to be primarily along the MO-AR
border but could affect all three aerodromes.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Gaede

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
735 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-180045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
735 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 339 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM
CDT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed out ahead of a
  cold front and upper level disturbance this evening. These
  storms will continue to move into the Missouri Ozarks through
  the overnight hours.

  This line of storms will be west of an Eldon to Hartville to
  Gainesville line by 9PM...and along a Rolla to Salem to Alton
  line by midnight. Hail up to the size of quarters and damaging
  thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary
  severe weather risks.

  If thunderstorms can develop and move across the same
  locations, some localized flooding will be possible in
  addition to the severe storms. This will occur south and west
  of an Alton to Gainesville to Nevada line through the
  overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

  Heat index values in the mid to upper 90s will be possible
  Friday and Saturday afternoons primarily across southern
  Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas.

  Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday
  into the early of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed west of Highway 63 before 10PM
  and east of Highway 63 after 10 PM.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Gaede

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