Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
711 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will drift very slowly south through the
midweek, then dissipate. Another front stalls to our north by
Thursday, then shifts south of us through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

Several areas of convection have fired this afternoon, 1 well east
of our area, one along/east of the Blue Ridge and the other from the
Alleghany Highlands to the Mountain Empire.

The activity east of the Blue Ridge more along a shallow convergent
zone, fueled by SBCAPEs of 1500-3000 J/Kg, though with higher pwats
DCAPEs are low. Storm motion along/north of Bluefield to Appomattox
around 15 to 20 mph, but around 10 mph across NC. A small threat of
isolated wet microbursts/large hail thru this afternoon, with best
threat east of a Amherst to Greensboro line where the CAPES are
higher.

The scattered to broken line in WV to far SW VA is more fueled by an
Mesoscale Convective Vort (MCV) that has been weakening somewhat as
it moves toward WV, with better vort situated across the Cumberland
Plateau of TN. With lower CAPES in the west, appears severe threat
is a bit more limited.

Will have to watch how storms line up and interact with any outflow
in terms of hydro issues, but currently confidence is high that any
hydro concerns will be isolated, so no flash flood watches necessary.

Going into tonight, high-res solutions showing activity drying out
in the west, with last line moving east of the piedmont area by 1-
2AM.

Next we look upstream over the Ohio Valley with a sharper shortwave
moving southeast to the KY/WV/OH border by Monday morning. Will see
front shift southward Monday with increased threat of more coverage
of showers/storms. Excessive rainfall outlook and models favor
higher flood threat over WV, southeast toward the Alleghanys.

Will hold off on a watch for now and will see how upstream
convection materializes as best heavy rain threat will be Monday
afternoon.

Severe threat Monday is marginal and cloud cover and speed of
upstream system or development overhead may hinder strong
insolation. If any sun appears, may see again isolated wind damage.

Lows tonight stay up in the 60s, with highs Monday limited by cloud
cover but looks cooler in our northern CWA with lower to mid 70s
(Amherst to Greenbrier), to upper 70s to lower 80s in the middle
from Bluefield to Lynchburg, as well as the rest of the
mountains, to mid 80s southeast.

Confidence high on wet forecast and isolated threat of severe and
flooding, but lower on locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Models are advertising a little slower movement of the front in how
far it progresses and keeps more of an upper trough axis situated
from KY/Indiana east to VA/NC during Monday night-Tuesday night such
that weather will stay active, though appears most of the area will
reside on the north side/wedge side of the front, so overall severe
threat will be diminished by potential for organized clusters along
the front could bring a period of heavier downpours Monday night and
more in the west/mountains Tue-Tue night. Still too far out for any
watches.

By Wednesday, front moves back north and we get back into a isolated
to scattered regime with heating and outflow boundaries being the
main forcing mechanism, so kept pops low.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

No changes to the forecast this period, next front works in Thursday
stalling to our north then high pressure moves into New England as
deep trough heads into New Brunswick with axis shifting east of us.
Still model differences suggest keeping low chance pops over the
weekend. Confidence is low beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Sunday...

Most convection has again pushed along and east of the Blue
Ridge early this evening with much of this likely to affect KLYH
and KDAN until an hour or two after loss of heating. Thus will
keep in a VCSH/VCTS mention before midnight there and perhaps in
spots around KBLF/KLWB pending upstream release coverage.

Front starts to sag southeast overnight, but we are likely to
see some low clouds and/or fog at places that had rain including
KBCB/KLWB and KLYH. Confidence higher at KBCB/KLWB for getting
LIFR fog by morning, but MVFR at other sites, though KBLF could
also see some lower cigs. This scenario remains low confidence
until around 08z, with high high confidence on sub- VFR prior to
sunrise on Monday.

Going to see fog/low clouds lift Monday morning with convection
redeveloping espcly mountains where more heating likely and
southwest of the the boundary pushing in from the northeast.
Appears could see some residual showers spill in early Monday
over the west with then most deeper convection developing along
and west of the Blue Ridge Monday afternoon. Looks like KLYH may
see enough stability per northeast flow to stay out of added
storms but likely to have sub-VFR cigs and showers at times into
late Monday. Otrw after early VCSH mention most spots early,
going with prevailing showers and VCTS thunder in the afternoon
given increasing confidence of seeing bands of slow moving
storms mountains.

Winds will remain light and variable through tonight, favoring
west to southwest around 10 kts along and west of the Blue
Ridge during the daytime hours Monday. However expect shifting
winds to the northeast while increasing to 10-18 kts at
KLYH/KDAN, and perhaps KROA by mid to late afternoon as the
front slides in from the north.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

The cold front will shift southwest across the remainder of the
region Monday night before stalling southwest of the area
Tuesday. This likely to keep the best shot at sub-VFR in added
showers over western sections into midweek with perhaps higher
VFR cigs across the east at times into Wednesday. Conditions
are expected to improve a bit through the later half of next
week, but still a threat of at least diurnally driven
showers/thunderstorms with daily potential for late night
fog/low clouds each day during the period.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
344 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-111945-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
344 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few storms through this evening may bring isolated wind damage,
large hail, and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday.
Locally heavy rainfall resulting in localized flooding or flash
flooding will be the main threat. A few storms could also become
severe producing damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Monday.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
635 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW COPPER HILL       37.07N 80.21W
06/10/2018                   FLOYD              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS SHAWSVILLE PIKE.
            TIME FROM RADAR.

&&

MBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
723 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

NCZ006-VAZ058-110000-
Caswell-Halifax-
723 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN CASWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN
HALIFAX COUNTIES...

Until 800 PM EDT

At 723 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms extending from
Milton to near Topnot. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Yanceyville...
Milton...
Blanch...
Leasburg...
and Hamer.

LAT...LON 3632 7942 3654 7931 3654 7922 3663 7920
      3664 7904 3654 7908 3654 7914 3638 7915
      3627 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 274DEG 11KT 3655 7921 3639 7930

MBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
735 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

VAZ044-110015-
Pittsylvania-
735 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA
COUNTY...

Until 815 PM EDT

At 734 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Dry Fork,
moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chatham...
Blairs...
Java...
Dry Fork...
and Keeling.

LAT...LON 3668 7948 3686 7947 3689 7913 3663 7920
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 273DEG 11KT 3677 7940

MBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
738 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

VAZ044-045-058-110015-
Halifax-Campbell-Pittsylvania-
738 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CAMPBELL...NORTHEASTERN
PITTSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES...

Until 815 PM EDT

At 737 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms extending from
near Hodges to near Gretna. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Altavista...
Hurt...
Gretna...
Mt Airy...
and Rustburg.

LAT...LON 3724 7893 3688 7911 3687 7946 3724 7924
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 271DEG 11KT 3718 7919 3694 7933

MBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
749 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

NCZ005-006-VAZ044-110015-
Rockingham-Caswell-Pittsylvania-
749 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN ROCKINGHAM...WESTERN
CASWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF
DANVILLE...

Until 815 PM EDT

At 748 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms extending from
near Blairs to near Reidsville. Movement was east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Danville...
Reidsville...
Yanceyville...
Bethel...
and Providence.

This includes The following Location Danville Airport.

LAT...LON 3625 7972 3668 7945 3664 7919 3659 7920
      3625 7939 3625 7953 3624 7953 3624 7963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 276DEG 9KT 3664 7937 3631 7960

MBS