Alert archive / Virginia / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

June 10, 20184 counties in Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this special weather statement at Jun 10, 2018, 4:17 PM EDT for 4 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 10, 2018, 4:17 PM EDT (20:17 UTC)
Expired: Jun 10, 2018, 5:00 PM EDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA

Counties Amherst County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Lexington, VA, Rockbridge County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 45 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -125 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1036 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 50 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 10, 3:28 PM EDT, 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 10, 3:28 PM EDT, 49 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
328 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will drift very slowly south through the
midweek, then dissipate. Another front stalls to our north by
Thursday, then shifts south of us through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

Several areas of convection have fired this afternoon, 1 well east
of our area, one along/east of the Blue Ridge and the other from the
Alleghany Highlands to the Mountain Empire.

The activity east of the Blue Ridge more along a shallow convergent
zone, fueled by SBCAPEs of 1500-3000 J/Kg, though with higher pwats
DCAPEs are low. Storm motion along/north of Bluefield to Appomattox
around 15 to 20 mph, but around 10 mph across NC. A small threat of
isolated wet microbursts/large hail thru this afternoon, with best
threat east of a Amherst to Greensboro line where the CAPES are
higher.

The scattered to broken line in WV to far SW VA is more fueled by an
Mesoscale Convective Vort (MCV) that has been weakening somewhat as
it moves toward WV, with better vort situated across the Cumberland
Plateau of TN. With lower CAPES in the west, appears severe threat
is a bit more limited.

Will have to watch how storms line up and interact with any outflow
in terms of hydro issues, but currently confidence is high that any
hydro concerns will be isolated, so no flash flood watches necessary.

Going into tonight, high-res solutions showing activity drying out
in the west, with last line moving east of the piedmont area by 1-
2AM.

Next we look upstream over the Ohio Valley with a sharper shortwave
moving southeast to the KY/WV/OH border by Monday morning. Will see
front shift southward Monday with increased threat of more coverage
of showers/storms. Excessive rainfall outlook and models favor
higher flood threat over WV, southeast toward the Alleghanys.

Will hold off on a watch for now and will see how upstream
convection materializes as best heavy rain threat will be Monday
afternoon.

Severe threat Monday is marginal and cloud cover and speed of
upstream system or development overhead may hinder strong
insolation. If any sun appears, may see again isolated wind damage.

Lows tonight stay up in the 60s, with highs Monday limited by cloud
cover but looks cooler in our northern CWA with lower to mid 70s
(Amherst to Greenbrier), to upper 70s to lower 80s in the middle
from Bluefield to Lynchburg, as well as the rest of the
mountains, to mid 80s southeast.

Confidence high on wet forecast and isolated threat of severe and
flooding, but lower on locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Models are advertising a little slower movement of the front in how
far it progresses and keeps more of an upper trough axis situated
from KY/Indiana east to VA/NC during Monday night-Tuesday night such
that weather will stay active, though appears most of the area will
reside on the north side/wedge side of the front, so overall severe
threat will be diminished by potential for organized clusters along
the front could bring a period of heavier downpours Monday night and
more in the west/mountains Tue-Tue night. Still too far out for any
watches.

By Wednesday, front moves back north and we get back into a isolated
to scattered regime with heating and outflow boundaries being the
main forcing mechanism, so kept pops low.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

No changes to the forecast this period, next front works in Thursday
stalling to our north then high pressure moves into New England as
deep trough heads into New Brunswick with axis shifting east of us.
Still model differences suggest keeping low chance pops over the
weekend. Confidence is low beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Little has changed with the synoptic conditions since this time
yesterday. Scattered storms firing up this afternoon from along
and west of the Blue Ridge will shift east around 10-15 kts
through the afternoon. Will see storms close enough to all
airports to have VCTS in, and trying to time storms per high-res
models and radar trends so added tempo groups thinking each
airport can expect a thunderstorm. Confidence medium on this.

Front starts to sag southeast tonight, but we are likely to see
some low clouds and/or fog at places that had rain. Confidence
higher at BCB/LWB for getting LIFR fog by morning, but MVFR at
other sites, though BLF could also see some lower cigs. Medium
confidence on this, but high confidence on sub-VFR after 09z
tonight.

Going to see fog/low clouds lift Monday morning with convection
arriving toward the end of the taf period, but leaving it out as
more widespread looks likely after 18z Monday.

Winds will remain light and variable through most of the
period, perhaps favoring light southwest during the daytime
hours, except erratic around TSRA.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

A cold front will move across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-
Atlantic region into Monday and Tuesday. This front will likely
stall or drift only slightly further south into early next
week, keeping unsettled conditions in place for several days.
Model guidance suggests high likelihood for showers and
thunderstorms with potential for sub-VFR ceilings and
visibilities with the greater coverage shifting into southern
sections by Tuesday. Overall, Monday afternoon still appears to
be the day with the most widespread coverage of convection and
associated aviation difficulties. There will still be periods of
MVFR and even VFR. Conditions are expected to improve a bit
through the later half of next week, but still a threat of at
least diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms with daily
potential for late night fog/low clouds each day during the
period.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RAB/WP

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 10, 3:44 PM EDT, 33 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
344 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-111945-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
344 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few storms through this evening may bring isolated wind damage,
large hail, and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday.
Locally heavy rainfall resulting in localized flooding or flash
flooding will be the main threat. A few storms could also become
severe producing damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Monday.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 10, 3:05 PM EDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
305 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

VAZ007-WVZ042-101945-
Tazewell-Mercer-
305 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TAZEWELL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTIES...

Until 345 PM EDT

At 304 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms extending from
near Tiptop to near War. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bluefield...
Pocahontas...
Bramwell...
Ceres...
and Montcalm.

This includes The following Location Mercer County Airport.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3724 8151 3726 8150 3725 8148 3727 8145
      3727 8142 3731 8140 3732 8137 3742 8131
      3742 8130 3741 8129 3742 8128 3746 8130
      3728 8111 3722 8128 3720 8150 3722 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 253DEG 15KT 3727 8149 3735 8162

MBS

Special weather statement, Jun 10, 3:08 PM EDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
308 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

VAZ024-035-102015-
Amherst-Rockbridge-
308 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ROCKBRIDGE AND
AMHERST COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF BUENA VISTA...

Until 415 PM EDT

At 307 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms extending from
near Buena Vista to near Naola. Movement was northeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Buena Vista...
Amherst...
Forks Of Buffalo...
Clifford...
and Naola.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3786 7915 3781 7917 3781 7914 3778 7911
      3778 7908 3772 7907 3770 7903 3770 7899
      3755 7890 3747 7920 3749 7922 3751 7922
      3749 7926 3751 7926 3751 7929 3773 7942
      3788 7915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 244DEG 14KT 3768 7935 3756 7923

MBS

Local storm report, Jun 10, 3:14 PM EDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
314 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW NORTHWEST SMITH M 37.12N 79.74W
06/10/2018                   FRANKLIN           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON LOST MOUNTAIN ROAD. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN

Special weather statement, Jun 10, 3:24 PM EDT, 53 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
324 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

VAZ019-020-023-024-102015-
Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Alleghany-
324 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN ALLEGHANY...ROCKBRIDGE...SOUTHEASTERN BATH AND NORTH
CENTRAL BOTETOURT COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE CITY OF
COVINGTON AND THE CITY OF LEXINGTON...

Until 415 PM EDT

At 323 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms extending from
near Staunton to near Covington. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington...
Covington...
Clifton Forge...
Goshen...
and Millboro.

This includes The following Location VMI.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3792 7919 3788 7915 3788 7916 3773 7941
      3769 7944 3778 8012 3807 7945
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 274DEG 25KT 3813 7923 3781 7997

MBS

Special weather statement, Jun 10, 3:30 PM EDT, 47 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

VAZ033-034-044-102030-
Franklin-Bedford-Pittsylvania-
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
PITTSYLVANIA...SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES...

Until 430 PM EDT

At 330 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms extending from
near Pittsville to near Ajax to Penhook to near Western Smith
Mountain Lake. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Gretna...
Boones Mill...
Moneta...
Penhook...
and Burnt Chimney.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3681 7947 3711 7996 3725 7976 3711 7941
      3706 7944 3706 7941 3709 7940 3710 7938
      3705 7927
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 294DEG 12KT 3704 7948 3700 7957 3698 7965 3707
7978

MBS

Special weather statement, Jun 10, 4:17 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
417 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

VAZ024-035-102100-
Amherst-Rockbridge-
417 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ROCKBRIDGE AND NORTHERN
AMHERST COUNTIES...THE CITY OF BUENA VISTA AND THE CITY OF
LEXINGTON...

Until 500 PM EDT

At 416 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms extending from
near Brownsburg to near Lexington. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington...
Buena Vista...
Forks Of Buffalo...
Clifford...
and Collierstown.

This includes The following Location VMI.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3793 7920 3789 7915 3786 7915 3781 7917
      3781 7914 3778 7911 3778 7908 3772 7907
      3770 7903 3770 7899 3758 7909 3772 7964
      3802 7937
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 279DEG 22KT 3799 7932 3777 7951

MBS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 10, 12:59 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	City of Salem	31 min
Jun 10, 1:29 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Botetourt	31 min
Jun 10, 1:39 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Henry	36 min
Jun 10, 1:46 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Roanoke	4 hr
Jun 10, 2:12 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bedford	48 min
Jun 10, 2:24 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Franklin	36 min
Jun 10, 2:26 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Franklin	34 min
Jun 10, 2:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bedford, Franklin, Pittsylvania	57 min
Jun 10, 3:08 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Amherst, City of Buena Vista	67 min
Jun 10, 3:24 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Alleghany, Rockbridge, City of Covington, City of Lexington	51 min
Jun 10, 3:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Franklin	60 min
Jun 10, 3:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Amherst, Buckingham, Rockbridge	41 min
Jun 10, 3:40 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Bedford, Franklin, Pittsylvania	4 hr
Jun 10, 4:23 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Craig, Roanoke, City of Salem	67 min
Jun 10, 4:38 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Carroll, Floyd, Grayson, City of Galax	52 min
Jun 10, 4:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Carroll, Floyd, Grayson, City of Galax	60 min
Jun 10, 4:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Buckingham	53 min
Jun 10, 5:01 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Carroll, Grayson, City of Galax	119 min
Jun 10, 5:14 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Botetourt	46 min
Jun 10, 5:29 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Floyd	16 min
Jun 10, 5:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Floyd, Franklin, Roanoke	25 min
Jun 10, 5:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Franklin	48 min
Jun 10, 6:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Buckingham	59 min
Jun 10, 6:08 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	City of Roanoke	52 min
Jun 10, 6:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Buckingham	44 min
Jun 10, 7:35 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Pittsylvania	40 min
Jun 10, 7:38 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Campbell	37 min
Jun 10, 7:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	City of Danville	26 min
Jun 10, 7:55 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Halifax	20 min
Jun 10, 1:12 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Surry	33 min
Jun 10, 1:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Surry	25 min
Jun 10, 5:50 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Alleghany	55 min
Jun 10, 7:23 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Caswell	37 min
Jun 9, 9:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Greenbrier	59 min
Jun 10, 12:54 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Monroe	36 min
Jun 10, 3:05 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Mercer	40 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Virginia, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.