Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
328 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will drift very slowly south through the
midweek, then dissipate. Another front stalls to our north by
Thursday, then shifts south of us through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

Several areas of convection have fired this afternoon, 1 well east
of our area, one along/east of the Blue Ridge and the other from the
Alleghany Highlands to the Mountain Empire.

The activity east of the Blue Ridge more along a shallow convergent
zone, fueled by SBCAPEs of 1500-3000 J/Kg, though with higher pwats
DCAPEs are low. Storm motion along/north of Bluefield to Appomattox
around 15 to 20 mph, but around 10 mph across NC. A small threat of
isolated wet microbursts/large hail thru this afternoon, with best
threat east of a Amherst to Greensboro line where the CAPES are
higher.

The scattered to broken line in WV to far SW VA is more fueled by an
Mesoscale Convective Vort (MCV) that has been weakening somewhat as
it moves toward WV, with better vort situated across the Cumberland
Plateau of TN. With lower CAPES in the west, appears severe threat
is a bit more limited.

Will have to watch how storms line up and interact with any outflow
in terms of hydro issues, but currently confidence is high that any
hydro concerns will be isolated, so no flash flood watches necessary.

Going into tonight, high-res solutions showing activity drying out
in the west, with last line moving east of the piedmont area by 1-
2AM.

Next we look upstream over the Ohio Valley with a sharper shortwave
moving southeast to the KY/WV/OH border by Monday morning. Will see
front shift southward Monday with increased threat of more coverage
of showers/storms. Excessive rainfall outlook and models favor
higher flood threat over WV, southeast toward the Alleghanys.

Will hold off on a watch for now and will see how upstream
convection materializes as best heavy rain threat will be Monday
afternoon.

Severe threat Monday is marginal and cloud cover and speed of
upstream system or development overhead may hinder strong
insolation. If any sun appears, may see again isolated wind damage.

Lows tonight stay up in the 60s, with highs Monday limited by cloud
cover but looks cooler in our northern CWA with lower to mid 70s
(Amherst to Greenbrier), to upper 70s to lower 80s in the middle
from Bluefield to Lynchburg, as well as the rest of the
mountains, to mid 80s southeast.

Confidence high on wet forecast and isolated threat of severe and
flooding, but lower on locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Models are advertising a little slower movement of the front in how
far it progresses and keeps more of an upper trough axis situated
from KY/Indiana east to VA/NC during Monday night-Tuesday night such
that weather will stay active, though appears most of the area will
reside on the north side/wedge side of the front, so overall severe
threat will be diminished by potential for organized clusters along
the front could bring a period of heavier downpours Monday night and
more in the west/mountains Tue-Tue night. Still too far out for any
watches.

By Wednesday, front moves back north and we get back into a isolated
to scattered regime with heating and outflow boundaries being the
main forcing mechanism, so kept pops low.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

No changes to the forecast this period, next front works in Thursday
stalling to our north then high pressure moves into New England as
deep trough heads into New Brunswick with axis shifting east of us.
Still model differences suggest keeping low chance pops over the
weekend. Confidence is low beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Little has changed with the synoptic conditions since this time
yesterday. Scattered storms firing up this afternoon from along
and west of the Blue Ridge will shift east around 10-15 kts
through the afternoon. Will see storms close enough to all
airports to have VCTS in, and trying to time storms per high-res
models and radar trends so added tempo groups thinking each
airport can expect a thunderstorm. Confidence medium on this.

Front starts to sag southeast tonight, but we are likely to see
some low clouds and/or fog at places that had rain. Confidence
higher at BCB/LWB for getting LIFR fog by morning, but MVFR at
other sites, though BLF could also see some lower cigs. Medium
confidence on this, but high confidence on sub-VFR after 09z
tonight.

Going to see fog/low clouds lift Monday morning with convection
arriving toward the end of the taf period, but leaving it out as
more widespread looks likely after 18z Monday.

Winds will remain light and variable through most of the
period, perhaps favoring light southwest during the daytime
hours, except erratic around TSRA.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

A cold front will move across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-
Atlantic region into Monday and Tuesday. This front will likely
stall or drift only slightly further south into early next
week, keeping unsettled conditions in place for several days.
Model guidance suggests high likelihood for showers and
thunderstorms with potential for sub-VFR ceilings and
visibilities with the greater coverage shifting into southern
sections by Tuesday. Overall, Monday afternoon still appears to
be the day with the most widespread coverage of convection and
associated aviation difficulties. There will still be periods of
MVFR and even VFR. Conditions are expected to improve a bit
through the later half of next week, but still a threat of at
least diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms with daily
potential for late night fog/low clouds each day during the
period.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RAB/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
344 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-111945-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
344 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few storms through this evening may bring isolated wind damage,
large hail, and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday.
Locally heavy rainfall resulting in localized flooding or flash
flooding will be the main threat. A few storms could also become
severe producing damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Monday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
423 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

VAZ014-018-022-023-102130-
Botetourt-Montgomery-Craig-Roanoke-
423 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ROANOKE...CRAIG...WEST CENTRAL
BOTETOURT AND NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF
SALEM...

Until 530 PM EDT

At 422 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms extending from
near Paint Bank to near Blacksburg. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Blacksburg...
Salem...
New Castle...
Paint Bank...
and Sinking Creek.

This includes The following Location The Salem Fairgrounds.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3760 7993 3716 8006 3716 8009 3713 8012
      3714 8014 3723 8042 3749 8035 3751 8030
      3753 8028 3754 8033 3755 8031 3757 8033
      3759 8027
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 274DEG 12KT 3754 8025 3724 8035

MBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
438 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

VAZ013-015>017-102130-
Grayson-Pulaski-Floyd-Carroll-
438 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
PULASKI...SOUTHWESTERN FLOYD...CARROLL AND EASTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES
AND THE CITY OF GALAX...

Until 530 PM EDT

At 438 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms extending from
near Allisonia to near Byllesby to near Elk Creek. Movement was east
at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Galax...
Hillsville...
Independence...
Fries...
and Floyd.

LAT...LON 3676 8100 3685 8087 3688 8074 3691 8077
      3695 8071 3697 8023 3671 8057 3660 8104
      3663 8125 3667 8129
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 275DEG 10KT 3690 8069 3674 8090 3667 8120

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
439 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             4 S NORTHWEST SMITH MOU 37.12N 79.73W
06/10/2018  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           VA   PUBLIC

            VARIOUS SIZES, BUT LARGEST ESTIMATED TO BE QUARTER SIZE.
            TIME RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
510 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             HILLSVILLE              36.77N 80.73W
06/10/2018  E0.50 INCH       CARROLL            VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

MBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
514 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

VAZ023-024-034-102200-
Botetourt-Bedford-Rockbridge-
514 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
ROCKBRIDGE...NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND BOTETOURT COUNTIES...

Until 600 PM EDT

At 513 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms extending from
Gala to Daleville. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and small hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Buena Vista...
Buchanan...
Glasgow...
Troutville...
and Montvale.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3731 7957 3736 7994 3739 8001 3772 7985
      3775 7937
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 269DEG 15KT 3768 7979 3744 7993

MBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
529 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

VAZ017-102145-
Floyd-
529 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTY...

Until 545 PM EDT

At 529 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Check, moving
east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Copper Hill...
Terrys Fork...
and Check.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3703 8034 3710 8021 3711 8018 3711 8016
      3712 8013 3712 8012 3711 8012 3710 8011
      3708 8011 3706 8012 3703 8010 3701 8012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 251DEG 19KT 3706 8019

MBS