Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
223 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A southerly flow will continue to push warm and humid air into our
region today and tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon and become more numerous for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Saturday...

Southerly flow continues to bring warm, moist and unstable air into
the region. Diurnally driven thunderstorms will continue to spring
up this afternoon into the evening before shutting down after
sunset. Storms will develop mainly in the mountains but will have a
generally easterly motion which should carry them out to the
lower lying areas. Latest short range guidance suggests that any
lingering storms should begin dissipating around midnight. The
main threat from any of these showers and storms again will be
any heavy downpours or potential training, leading to water
issues with our already very saturated ground. Humid conditions
will likely lead to patchy fog again tonight, which could become
fairly dense in areas that receive rain today.

Conditions on Monday look to be much like Sunday, continuing with
the warm and humid pattern due to tropical ridging still firmly in
place. A front will be approaching the area from the Ohio Valley and
will trigger a more widespread convective event. SPC day 2 outlook
currently has the region outlooked for general thunder with a
marginal risk just to the west. That being said, again the main
threat would be hydrological, but with modest instabilities, can not
rule out that a cell or two could become strong to severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

A blocking ridge centered over Bermuda stretches westward to cover
portions of the southeast and Mid Atlantic states Monday night and
Tuesday. This ridge is expected to sink south by Wednesday, losing
its influence on the region. A weak front should move across the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Over the Gulf states north into
the Tennessee Valley, a weak upper level trough will continue to
draw Gulf and Atlantic moisture northward into the area Wednesday.
Similar to last week, tropical moisture interacting with a frontal
boundary will bring numerous slow moving showers with heavy
downpours Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Since the ground will
remain wet and creeks, streams and rivers are elevated, there is a
chance for renewed flooding by the middle of the week. Unlike last
week, the threat for heavy rain will only be a day or two rather
than a whole week, as the front is forecast to move into the
Carolinas Wednesday night.

Temperature will continue to run warmer than normal until the front
moves south of the area Wednesday night. Highs Tuesday will range
from the mid to upper 70s across the mountains to the lower 80s
east. Wednesday's temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...

Following a frontal passage Wednesday night, high pressure will
wedge south on Thursday. This wedge of high pressure should keep
most of the area dry through Friday night. With a cool easterly
wind, near uniform temperatures are expected Thursday with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

An upper level ridge over the southeast states will expand northward
on Friday. This ridge will bring warmer temperatures into the region
for the weekend. The chance for thunderstorms return to the area on
Saturday as a cold front approaches the region. The better chance
for widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday and
Monday as the front slowly crosses the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions to start the period as weak high pressure builds
into the region. This afternoon into the evening, diurnally
driven, isolated showers and possibly a rumble of thunder will
be possible, mainly near and along the Blue Ridge but will move
east into the lower elevations. Based on persistence, fog will
be possible again overnight and could be especially dense in
areas that receive rain today. Guidance suggests that while LWB
will not likely see rain, fog will be particularly heavy at
this TAF location. Fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise.
Toward the end of the TAF period, guidance suggests MVFR
ceilings will begin to drift over DAN ahead of convective
activity developing to the south of the region. Winds are
expected to be light and mainly from the south and west during
the forecast period.

Medium confidence in ceilings and visibilities.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

Another weak cold front will bring increasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms again on Monday afternoon. Scattered
MVFR showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday night into
Tuesday with another round likely Wednesday. Conditions are
expected to improve later in the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JR
NEAR TERM...JR
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AL/RCS
AVIATION...JR/KK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
218 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-211830-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
218 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-211830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
218 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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