River Flood Warning 29, NWS Blacksburg, VA

101 
WGUS81 KRNK 172012
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
412 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina...
 
  Roanoke River At Roanoke affecting Roanoke...City of Roanoke and 
  City of Salem Counties 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax
  Counties 
  Dan River Near Wentworth affecting Rockingham County 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

Flood forecast levels on the Roanoke River are only slightly changed
from the previous issuance. The Roanoke will crest this evening
at Roanoke and well downstream at Randolph tomorrow. No flooding
is expected at Alta Vista or Brookneal although stages will be
quite high.

The forecast on the Dan River is lowered with this issuance at all
the forecast points, with mainly moderate flooding now expected.
Danville may briefly reach Major flood stage tomorrow but this 
will not last long.
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

The next scheduled statement will be issued later this evening.

&&

VAC161-770-775-180412-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180918T1434Z/
/RONV2.1.ER.180917T1609Z.180918T0000Z.180918T0234Z.NO/
412 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River At Roanoke.
* until Tuesday morning. 
* at 03PM Monday the stage was 11.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 11.5 feet by this evening. 
  The river will fall below flood stage tonight.
* Impact...at 10.5 feet...Flooding occurs in portions of Wasena 
  Park.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 10.6 
  feet on Jan 23 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3720 8012 3729 8016 3732 8006 3731 7988
          3722 7988                   

$$

VAC037-083-180412-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0029.180918T0900Z-180919T2040Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.180918T0900Z.180918T1800Z.180919T0840Z.NO/
412 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* from early tomorrow until Wednesday afternoon
* at 03PM Monday the stage was 20.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue 
  to rise to near 25.0 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Wednesday morning.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.9 
  feet on Apr 26 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC157-180412-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-180919T1539Z/
/WENN7.2.ER.180917T0858Z.180918T0600Z.180919T0939Z.NO/
412 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Wentworth.
* until Wednesday morning. 
* at 03PM Monday the stage was 23.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 25.4 feet by after midnight 
  tonight. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday morning.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Moderate flood stage. Water reaches base 
  of deck at nearby home.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 26.9 
  feet on Mar 21 2003.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3637 7995 3641 7995 3650 7976 3646 7974
          3641 7978 3637 7987         

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-180412-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180920T1731Z/
/DVLV2.3.ER.180917T1032Z.180918T1800Z.180920T0531Z.NO/
412 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until Thursday afternoon. 
* at 03PM Monday the stage was 20.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 25.5 feet by tomorrow early 
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage early Thursday 
  morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.3 
  feet on Apr 25 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-180412-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-180921T1208Z/
/PCEV2.2.ER.180917T1653Z.180919T1200Z.180921T0008Z.NO/
412 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until Friday morning. 
* at 03PM Monday the stage was 21.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26.5 feet by Wednesday 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage Thursday evening.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on Jan 27 2010.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-180412-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-180922T0315Z/
/SBNV2.2.ER.180917T1213Z.180920T0000Z.180921T1515Z.NO/
412 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Friday evening. 
* at 03PM Monday the stage was 22.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 27.7 feet by Wednesday 
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage late Friday morning.
* Impact...at 27.0 feet...Water approaches Route 501.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 27.5 
  feet on Nov 14 2009.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

pc

238 
WGUS81 KRNK 180103
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
903 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Virginia...
 
  New River Near Galax affecting Carroll...Grayson and City of Galax
  Counties
  Roanoke River At Roanoke affecting Roanoke...City of Roanoke and 
  City of Salem Counties
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  New River At Radford affecting Montgomery...Pulaski and City of 
  Radford Counties 

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Virginia..
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and 
  Halifax Counties 


 .The New River at Galax has gone below flood stage and continue 
 to fall this evening. The crest along the New River at Radford has 
 been adjusted up to 16.4 feet. The Roanoke river at Roanoke has
 crest and falling below flood. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 9 AM Tuesday.

&&

VAC035-077-640-180133-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-180918T1200Z/
/GAXV2.1.ER.180917T1050Z.180917T1545Z.180917T2123Z.UU/
903 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the New River Near Galax.
* until Tuesday morning. 
* at 08PM Monday the stage was 7.9 feet and falling.

* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Impact...at 9.0 feet...Minor overbank flooding. Some campgrounds 
  upstream begin to be affected.

&&

LAT...LON 3658 8119 3693 8090 3692 8078 3665 8090
          3657 8095                   

$$

VAC121-155-750-180903-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-180918T2000Z/
/RDFV2.2.ER.180917T2053Z.180918T0600Z.180918T1400Z.NO/
903 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the New River At Radford.
* until Tuesday afternoon. 
* at 08PM Monday the stage was 16.0 feet.

* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 16.4 feet by after midnight 
  tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow late 
  morning.
* Impact...at 16.0 feet...Significant flooding occures in Bissett 
  Park.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 16.8 
  feet on Apr 24 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 8062 3723 8065 3727 8053 3722 8049
          3710 8050                   

$$

VAC161-770-775-180133-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180918T1434Z/
/RONV2.1.ER.180917T1609Z.180917T2030Z.180917T2312Z.NO/
903 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Roanoke River At Roanoke.
* until Tuesday morning. 
* at 08PM Monday the stage was 8.0 feet and falling tonight.

* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Impact...at 8.0 feet...Wiley Drive low water bridge is flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3720 8012 3729 8016 3732 8006 3731 7988
          3722 7988                   

$$

VAC037-083-180903-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0029.180918T0900Z-180919T2040Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.180918T0900Z.180918T1800Z.180919T0840Z.NO/
903 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* from early tomorrow until Wednesday afternoon
* at 07PM Monday the stage was 22.6 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue 
  to rise to near 25.0 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Wednesday morning.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.9 
  feet on Apr 26 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

235 
WGUS81 KRNK 180800
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
400 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax
  Counties.


 The Roanoke River at Randolph will continue to see rises to and
 remain above flood stage today.
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

The next scheduled statement will be issued by noon today.

&&

VAC037-083-181559-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0029.180918T1400Z-180919T1500Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.180918T1400Z.180918T1800Z.180919T0300Z.NO/
400 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* until tonight.
* at 02AM Tuesday the stage was 23.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage this morning and 
  continue to rise to near 24.2 feet this afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by late tonight.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on 
  left bank and woods on right bank.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.9 
  feet on Apr 26 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$
RCS

517 
WGUS81 KRNK 181413
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1013 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax
  Counties 
  Dan River Near Wentworth affecting Rockingham County 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

Flooding from the remnants of Hurricane Florence continue to affect 
the Roanoke River and Dan River at multiple locations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

The next scheduled statement will be issued by this evening.

&&

VAC037-083-182211-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0029.180918T1800Z-180919T0600Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.180918T1800Z.180918T1800Z.180918T1800Z.NO/
1013 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* from this afternoon until late tonight
* at 8 AM Tuesday the stage was 23.9 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will rise to 24.0 feet and reach flood stage during 
  midday. The river will fall below flood stage this evening.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on 
  left bank and woods on right bank.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.9 
  feet on Apr 26 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC157-182211-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-180919T0232Z/
/WENN7.1.ER.180917T0858Z.180918T0500Z.180918T2032Z.NO/
1013 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Wentworth.
* until this evening. 
* at 9 AM Tuesday the stage was 21.8 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this 
  evening.
* Impact...at 22.0 feet...Portions of Dan Valley Road and and Water 
  Street in Mayodan are affected by high water.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 21.7 
  feet on Sep 30 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3637 7995 3641 7995 3650 7976 3646 7974
          3641 7978 3637 7987         

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-182211-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180920T0322Z/
/DVLV2.2.ER.180917T1032Z.180918T1800Z.180919T1522Z.NO/
1013 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until Wednesday evening. 
* at 9 AM Tuesday the stage was 22.6 feet.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 22.7 feet by this afternoon.
  The river will then fall below flood stage by tomorrrow morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.5 
  feet on Jan 26 2010.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-182211-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-180920T2033Z/
/PCEV2.2.ER.180917T1653Z.180919T0600Z.180920T0833Z.NO/
1013 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until Thursday afternoon. 
* at 8 AM Tuesday the stage was 23.9 feet.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 25.0 feet tonight. 
  The river will fall below flood stage by Thursday morning.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 24.5 
  feet on Oct 5 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-182211-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-180921T1040Z/
/SBNV2.2.ER.180917T1213Z.180919T1800Z.180920T2240Z.NO/
1013 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Friday morning. 
* at 9 AM Tuesday the stage was 25.1 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26.3 feet by tomorrow
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage by Thursday evening.
* Impact...at 27.0 feet...Water approaches route 501.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on May 19 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      
$$

PW

966 
WGUS81 KRNK 181831
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
231 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Virginia...North Carolina...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and 
  Halifax Counties
  Dan River Near Wentworth affecting Rockingham County
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...Virginia...
 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


 River levels at on the Roanoke River at Randolph and Dan River at 
 Wentworth have fallen below flood stage with a continued receding
 trend expected. River Flood Warnings have been cancelled for these
 two forecast points. 
 Only the Dan and Danville, Paces and South Boston
 remain in moderate flood. Danville is expected to crest shortly, 
 with gradual rises to continue further downriver at Paces and South
 Boston today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued this evening.

&&

VAC037-083-181901-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-180919T0600Z/
/RNDV2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
231 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* until late tonight. 
* at 01PM Tuesday the stage was 23.7 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on 
  left bank and woods on right bank.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.9 
  feet on Apr 26 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC157-181901-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-180919T0232Z/
/WENN7.1.ER.180917T0858Z.180918T0500Z.180918T1636Z.NO/
231 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Dan River Near Wentworth.
* until this evening. 
* at 01PM Tuesday the stage was 17.4 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Impact...at 19.0 feet...Minor flood stage. Flooding of lowlands 
  and one or two roads. 

&&

LAT...LON 3637 7995 3641 7995 3650 7976 3646 7974
          3641 7978 3637 7987         

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-190230-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180920T0113Z/
/DVLV2.2.ER.180917T1032Z.180919T0000Z.180919T1313Z.NO/
231 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until Wednesday evening. 
* at 02PM Tuesday the stage was 22.8 feet.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.0 feet by this evening. 
  The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow late morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.5 
  feet on Jan 26 2010.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-190230-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-180920T1822Z/
/PCEV2.2.ER.180917T1653Z.180919T1200Z.180920T0622Z.NO/
231 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until Thursday afternoon. 
* at 01PM Tuesday the stage was 24.4 feet.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 25.1 feet by tomorrow 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage early Thursday 
  morning.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 24.5 
  feet on Oct 5 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-190230-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-180921T0701Z/
/SBNV2.2.ER.180917T1213Z.180919T1800Z.180920T1901Z.NO/
231 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late Thursday night. 
* at 02PM Tuesday the stage was 25.4 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26.4 feet by tomorrow early 
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Thursday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...at 27.0 feet...Water approaches route 501.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on May 19 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

Loconto

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1251 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Florence will pass east across the Ohio Valley
by this evening before exiting to the northeast of the area
overnight into Tuesday. High pressure builds in midweek with
another front working in from the north toward the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1028 AM EDT Monday...

Axis of heavy rain producing showers and storms continues across
far eastern sections associated with the main rain band to the
east of Florence. Expect most of these to finally slide east of
the area but may take until afternoon for the band to exit per
latest HRRR. Focus to shift to the west this afternoon where
have dry slotted but still have shallow wind type bands crossing
the region within southwest flow aloft. Given at least some
heating as seen via breaks per current visible pics, expect
perhaps a broken band or two of convection mountains as
supported by the latest NamNest provided enough instability
which appears iffy. Thus ramping pops back up to likelys this
afternoon while continuing the going flash flood watch for now
given how saturated things are and potential for at least
localized flooding with the new convection. However timing of
convection may be later espcly if heating is slower to evolve.
Better low level helicity also remains across eastern sections
per easterly flow while expecting shear to diminish from west to
east later on as the flow through the column becomes more
south/southwest. Also adjusted temps down a bit given lingering
clouds but still appears could get around 80 east with muggy 70s
mountains under periodic gusty southerly winds.

Previous discussion as of 310 AM EDT Monday...

Center of TD Florence along TN/VA border this morning will track
into WV this afternoon, then shift quickly to the northeast to New
England by Tuesday afternoon as its picked up in the westerlies.

For now, southeast flow keeping heavier rains mainly north of the
VA/NC border along the Blue Ridge and heading northward to the
Alleghanys. Tail end band still situated from the Triangle of NC
south central SC.

High-res models are showing the upslope component starting to wane
by mid morning as the flow turns more south.

However, still some convective bands developing during the day will
lead to higher rainfall rates, and not planning on dropping the
flash flood watch yet, though think places over far SW VA and
southside VA may be able to be cancelled this afternoon. WPC has a
moderate risk of excessive along the Blue Ridge today and tallying
up rainfall forecasts through Tuesday morning puts 3-5 inches along
the Blue Ridge north of Roanoke and portions of the Alleghanys, with
generally 1-2 inches further south along the Blue Ridge and out into
the piedmont with less over far SW VA.

Going to wind, there are still some gusts up to 30-40 mph but as the
pressure couplet with Florence shifts north into WV and Florence
weakens think letting the wind advisory go at 4am is warranted.

Still with saturated soils, a few trees could drop even with winds
less than 30-35 mph.

Will have to watch for convection this afternoon as models showing
drying aloft and sunshine could poke through at times, leading to
better instability. Shear still decent enough and low level helicity
remains to perhaps bring a few spinups. SPC has marginal risk
generally over our VA counties, and partially into the NC
foothills/piedmont. Leaning toward showing marginal over all of our
forecast area, except perhaps far SW VA, based on the CAMs showing 2
bands of convection forming thru the day, one early with the line
coming up from SC/NC piedmont which will may work into the piedmont
later this morning, then next band sets up this afternoon from SE WV
south to the NC mountains, moving it east into the New River Valley
and foothills by dusk.

Plan on keeping pops in the likely to categorical range today, then
start trending lower tonight as drying arrives from the southwest
over western NC, while keeping showers with more coverage in upslope
areas of WV as flow turns more west.

Tuesday sets up with an upper trough overhead with several embedded
shortwaves, and this will lead to more showers/few storms firing up,
more scattered than numerous, with best chances along and north of
US 460 from Bluefield to Lynchburg.

Temps will be a few degrees warmer today and Tuesday with potential
return of sun at times, especially Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

Drying Tuesday night and Wednesday will bring clearing skies
with a return to mostly sunny conditions Wednesday. Temperatures
will favor above seasonal values as subtropical ridge of high
pressure re-emerges over the southeastern CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

Subtropical ridge of high pressure is forecast to build across
the southeastern CONUS for Thursday and Friday favoring above
temperatures for the remainder of the week. Dewpoints will also
remain elevated, so anticipating summer-like conditions. A cold
front will approach from the northwest late in the week
providing an uptick in shower/storm chances for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EDT Monday...

Sub-VFR conditions under low ceilings will linger across most
of the region this afternoon with periodic breaks bringing VFR
at times espcly east of the mountains by mid to late afternoon.

Small broken bands of showers may also affect KDAN into the
afternoon which could result in brief MVFR vsbys. Also models
suggest additional bands developing over the mountains with some
of this again heading east into early this evening. This
supports keeping a VCTS/VCSH mention going east of the mountains
with perhaps a prevailing shower mention around KROA/KLYH where
have more confidence in seeing a shower later on. Winds mainly
south at 10 to 15 kts before diminishing overnight.

Models are favoring most areas west of the Blue Ridge to sink
back to MVFR to IFR with fog/cigs after 00z/8 PM this evening
with showers around.

Upper trough crosses the region from the west on Tuesday as the
remnants of Florence shift to the northeast. Still potential to
see a few showers beneath this passing feature, otherwise
looking at slow improving conditions as drier west to northwest
trajectory develops.

Extended Discussion...

VFR conditions are then expected for Wednesday through Friday
with high pressure over the area.

Confidence gradually transitions to above average by Tuesday
night into the end of this week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1250 PM Monday...

Main concerns continue with added rainfall within bands of
showers and storms this afternoon/evening and with river
flooding into at least midweek.

However latest guidance suggests that any added heavy rain this
afternoon/evening will be rather isolated, mainly over the
mountains before sliding east into this evening. This could
again cause added flash flooding where any heavier cores or
bands develop so keeping the going flash flood watch in place
for now.

Otherwise major river flooding still forecast for the Dan River
from Danville east to South Boston, and minor flooding is
forecast along the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Roanoke and
Randolph. Forecast levels were also adjusted downward on the New
River with most points expected to rise into minor flood levels.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032>035-043-044-058.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
409 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043-044-058-
WVZ042>044-507-508-180815-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Halifax-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
409 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Additionally, a band or two of heavy showers and thunderstorms may
bring a quick spinup today into this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to monitor for flooding, downed trees and
power lines, along with possible tornadoes Sunday. Please email your
rainfall and severe weather reports to rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or pass
them along on our US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Facebook
page.

VAZ045>047-059-180815-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Charlotte-
409 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and south
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is an isolated threat of very brief tornadoes today into this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to monitor for flooding, downed trees and
power lines, along with possible tornadoes Sunday. Please email your
rainfall and severe weather reports to rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or pass
them along on our US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Facebook
page.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1255 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ENE MILTON            36.57N 79.14W
09/17/2018                   HALIFAX            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGHWAY 119 ALSO CALLED CAVALRY ROAD IS CLOSED NEAR THE
            VA-NC STATE LINE.

&&

LOCONTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1258 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SE DANVILLE CITY      36.52N 79.36W
09/17/2018                   CASWELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            CASWELL COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS WALTERS MILL RD NORTHWEST
            OF BLANCH IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

LOCONTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
151 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE HALIFAX           36.70N 78.91W
09/17/2018                   HALIFAX            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            HALIFAX COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS RAILROAD AVENUE IS CLOSED
            IN SOUTH BOSTON DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

LOCONTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
153 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE HALIFAX           36.70N 78.91W
09/17/2018                   HALIFAX            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            HALFAX COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS SUMMIT DRIVE IN SOUTH
            BOSTON IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

LOCONTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
200 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     FLOOD            1 S MONROETON           36.26N 79.73W
09/17/2018                   ROCKINGHAM         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SPEARMAN ROAD NEAR CUNNINGHAM MILL ROAD CLOSED TO DUE
            FLOODING.

&&

BMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
205 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     FLOOD            2 S EDEN                36.47N 79.75W
09/17/2018                   ROCKINGHAM         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            DAN RIVER IS CAUSING FLOODING ALONG BETHLEHEM CHURCH ROAD
            IN EDEN, NC.

&&

BMG