Flash Flood Warning 102, NWS Blacksburg, VA

008 
WGUS71 KRNK 171338
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
938 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

NCC033-VAC083-171800-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0102.000000T0000Z-180917T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Caswell NC-Halifax VA-
938 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR 
CASWELL AND HALIFAX COUNTIES...

At 930 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned
area.  Flash flooding is likely if these heavy rains continue. 

Rain rates of up to 4 inches an hour are possible. 

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
South Boston...
Yanceyville...
Bethel...
Halifax...
and Staunton River State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 7865 3668 7870 3654 7873 3654 7914
      3624 7916 3625 7953 3654 7951 3654 7922
      3705 7909 3703 7901 3705 7897 3702 7890
      3698 7890 3698 7882 3695 7879 3701 7874
      3692 7875 3684 7867 3674 7869 3664 7857

$$

PM

282 
WGUS71 KRNK 171648
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1248 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

NCC033-VAC083-171800-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0102.000000T0000Z-180917T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Caswell NC-Halifax VA-
1248 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR 
CASWELL AND HALIFAX COUNTIES...

At 1241 PM EDT, earlier heavy rains has resulted in several road 
closures in Caswell and Halifax Counties. Caswell County Dispatch 
reported that portions of Highways 62 and 119 were flooded as well 
as Walter's Mill Road in Blanch. Halifax County Dispatch reported 
that Cavalry Road near Alton, VA is closed near the Caswell County 
state line. While the heaviest rains have ended, rain coverage will 
be more hit-or-miss with additional rainfall amounts of up to one-
half inch. Flash flooding is already occurring. Please do not drive 
over flooded roads or drive around barricades.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
South Boston...
Yanceyville...
Bethel...
Halifax...
and Brookneal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 7865 3668 7870 3654 7873 3654 7914
      3624 7916 3625 7953 3654 7951 3654 7922
      3705 7909 3703 7901 3705 7897 3702 7890
      3698 7890 3698 7882 3695 7879 3701 7874
      3692 7875 3684 7867 3674 7869 3664 7857

$$

Loconto

528 
WGUS51 KRNK 171748
FFWRNK
NCC033-VAC083-172100-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FF.W.0102.000000T0000Z-180917T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
148 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Caswell County in north central North Carolina...
  Halifax County in south central Virginia...

* Until 500 PM EDT

* At 145 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated showers with heavy rain
  which continue to impact parts of the warned area. There have
  been reports of flooding.  Please do no drive past barricades 
  or drive through areas where water has flooded the roads.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  South Boston...
  Yanceyville...
  and Halifax...
  
Halifax county law enforcement reports Alderson road is closed
by Birch Creek overflowing its banks.  Railroad Avenue and 
Summit Drive in South Boston are also closed due to high water. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 7865 3668 7870 3654 7873 3654 7914
      3624 7916 3625 7953 3654 7951 3654 7922
      3705 7909 3703 7901 3705 7897 3702 7890
      3698 7890 3698 7882 3695 7879 3701 7874
      3692 7875 3684 7867 3674 7869 3664 7857

$$

PM

952 
WGUS71 KRNK 172105
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
505 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

NCC033-VAC083-172114-
/O.EXP.KRNK.FF.W.0102.000000T0000Z-180917T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Caswell NC-Halifax VA-
505 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CASWELL AND HALIFAX COUNTIES HAS 
EXPIRED...

The heavy rain has ended and moved further east.  The imminent 
threat for flash flooding has ended.  However, several roads remain 
flooded and closed. As a result, the Flash Flood Warning is being 
replaced with a Flood Warning. Please continue to heed any remaining 
road closures.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

LAT...LON 3669 7865 3668 7870 3654 7873 3654 7914
      3624 7916 3625 7953 3654 7951 3654 7922
      3705 7909 3703 7901 3705 7897 3702 7890
      3698 7890 3698 7882 3695 7879 3701 7874
      3692 7875 3684 7867 3674 7869 3664 7857

$$

RAB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
355 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Florence will head into the central Appalachians today and then
get pushed to the northeast U.S. by Tuesday afternoon. High
pressure builds in midweek with another front working in from
the north toward the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Monday...

Center of TD Florence along TN/VA border this morning will track
into WV this afternoon, then shift quickly to the northeast to New
England by Tuesday afternoon as its picked up in the westerlies.

For now, southeast flow keeping heavier rains mainly north of the
VA/NC border along the Blue Ridge and heading northward to the
Alleghanys. Tail end band still situated from the Triangle of NC
south central SC.

High-res models are showing the upslope component starting to wane
by mid morning as the flow turns more south.

However, still some convective bands developing during the day will
lead to higher rainfall rates, and not planning on dropping the
flash flood watch yet, though think places over far SW VA and
southside VA may be able to be cancelled this afternoon. WPC has a
moderate risk of excessive along the Blue Ridge today and tallying
up rainfall forecasts through Tuesday morning puts 3-5 inches along
the Blue Ridge north of Roanoke and portions of the Alleghanys, with
generally 1-2 inches further south along the Blue Ridge and out into
the piedmont with less over far SW VA.

Going to wind, there are still some gusts up to 30-40 mph but as the
pressure couplet with Florence shifts north into WV and Florence
weakens think letting the wind advisory go at 4am is warranted.

Still with saturated soils, a few trees could drop even with winds
less than 30-35 mph.

Will have to watch for convection this afternoon as models showing
drying aloft and sunshine could poke through at times, leading to
better instability. Shear still decent enough and low level helicity
remains to perhaps bring a few spinups. SPC has marginal risk
generally over our VA counties, and partially into the NC
foothills/piedmont. Leaning toward showing marginal over all of our
forecast area, except perhaps far SW VA, based on the CAMs showing 2
bands of convection forming thru the day, one early with the line
coming up from SC/NC piedmont which will may work into the piedmont
later this morning, then next band sets up this afternoon from SE WV
south to the NC mountains, moving it east into the New River Valley
and foothills by dusk.

Plan on keeping pops in the likely to categorical range today, then
start trending lower tonight as drying arrives from the southwest
over western NC, while keeping showers with more coverage in upslope
areas of WV as flow turns more west.

Tuesday sets up with an upper trough overhead with several embedded
shortwaves, and this will lead to more showers/few storms firing up,
more scattered than numerous, with best chances along and north of
US 460 from Bluefield to Lynchburg.

Temps will be a few degrees warmer today and Tuesday with potential
return of sun at times, especially Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

Drying Tuesday night and Wednesday will bring clearing skies
with a return to mostly sunny conditions Wednesday. Temperatures
will favor above seasonal values as subtropical ridge of high
pressure re-emerges over the southeastern CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

Subtropical ridge of high pressure is forecast to build across
the southeastern CONUS for Thursday and Friday favoring above
temperatures for the remainder of the week. Dewpoints will also
remain elevated, so anticipating summer-like conditions. A cold
front will approach from the northwest late in the week
providing an uptick in shower/storm chances for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 110 AM EDT Monday...

Aviation conditions will stay poor through most of the region
until Florence moves north of us later today into tonight.

Bands of heavier rain will slide up the Blue Ridge impacting
ROA/LYH/BCB and LWB with a period of heavier rains possible at
BLF/DAN early.

We will see cigs and vsbys stay sub-VFR and at times LIFR
although mostly a 3-6sm vsby and cigs in the 700 to 2000 ft
range.

As the low moves into Eastern KY the flow turns around more to
the south, then southwest, and models showing some drying aloft,
which may bring some improvement in ceilings and vsbys with less
coverage of showers after 18-21z today. The piedmont airports
may actually shift into VFR cigs as well as ROA during this
time.

Expect more heating and residual moisture to fire up showers
after 18z with a few thunderstorms not out the question, though
too low risk for mention in tafs.

Models are favoring most areas west of the Blue Ridge to sink
back to MVFR to IFR with fog/cigs after 00z Tuesday with showers
around.

Confidence is high on sub-VFR cigs/vsbys and medium on overall
timing of them. High confidence in winds as well.

Confidence falls to low to medium after 00z Tuesday.

Extended Discussion...

Will finally see Florence shift north of us by Monday night
with conditions improving. A weak upper low may bring added
showers for Tuesday with possible periods of sub-VFR Tuesday
afternoon. VFR conditions are then expected for Wednesday
through Friday with high pressure over the area.

Confidence gradually transitions to above average by Monday
night into the middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Highest rainfall so far has been along the Blue Ridge from south
of Roanoke to Blowing Rock, where some amounts have exceed 8
inches.

There has also been about 1 to 4 inches in the piedmont.

Rainfall today will be heaviest along the upper Roanoke and
James basins, though some bands of heavy rain with convection
are expected to move through this afternoon across the area.

Additional rainfall amounts forecasted through Tuesday morning
range from 2 to 5 inches along the Roanoke and James, with the 5
inch bullseye concentrated along the Blue Ridge north of Roanoke
to Montebello. However, at the moment this amount of rain and
what has occurred is not expected to flood any points along the
James River, but will see rises, especially in the upper James
from Lick Run to Holcomb Rock.

Further south, none of the main stem rivers are in flood yet,
but smaller streams and rivers in the headwaters are in flood or
close to flood. Based on what has fallen, and where the heavier
amounts occurred, we are expecting moderate flooding along the
Yadkin downstream of Wilkesboro, but at Wilkesboro, flooding is
not expected. Moderate flooding is also expected along the New
River from Galax to Glen Lyn, the Roanoke River in Roanoke, and
the Dan River at Wentworth.

Major flooding still forecast for the Dan River from Danville
east to South Boston, and minor flooding is forecast along the
Roanoke (Staunton) River downstream of Smith Mountain and
Leesville Lake.

The river forecast centers will be updating the forecasts later
this morning, but those who live along the rivers, especially
the Dan will need to make plans for flooding, as well as the New
River around Radford.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035-043-044-058.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ007-009-
     010-012-013-015>017-032.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ001>006-018>020.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ001>003-
     018>020.
WV...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ042>044-507-508.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for WVZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
409 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043-044-058-
WVZ042>044-507-508-180815-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Halifax-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
409 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Additionally, a band or two of heavy showers and thunderstorms may
bring a quick spinup today into this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to monitor for flooding, downed trees and
power lines, along with possible tornadoes Sunday. Please email your
rainfall and severe weather reports to rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or pass
them along on our US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Facebook
page.

VAZ045>047-059-180815-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Charlotte-
409 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and south
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is an isolated threat of very brief tornadoes today into this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to monitor for flooding, downed trees and
power lines, along with possible tornadoes Sunday. Please email your
rainfall and severe weather reports to rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or pass
them along on our US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Facebook
page.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
425 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      STUART                  36.63N 80.28W
09/17/2018                   PATRICK            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGHWAY 58 AT STUART CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ALL THE WAY
            TO ROUTE 8 AT WOOLWINE. JACKS CREEK ROAD AND LONE IVY
            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. DOBBINS ROAD FLOODED JUST
            PAST STUART FLOORING. RIVERSIDE DRIVE IN STUART FLOODED
            AND CLOSED.

&&

DWERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
454 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE FLOYD             36.89N 80.30W
09/17/2018                   FLOYD              VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            VDOT 511 REPORTS ROBERSON MILL ROAD TO WOODS GAP ROAD
            WASHED OUT AND CLOSED. NUMBEROUS OTHER SECONDARY ROADS
            ALSO REPORTED CLOSED ACROSS THE COUNTY DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

DWERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
512 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WALNUT COVE             36.29N 80.14W
09/16/2018                   STOKES             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREES DOWN IN WALNUT COVE. SCATTERED
            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE...AT LEAST 40 TO 50
            SINCE FRIDAY.

&&

PMANUEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
513 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N BENT MOUNTAIN       37.17N 80.11W
09/17/2018                   ROANOKE            VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROUTE 744E FROM BOTTOM CREEK ROAD TO BENT MOUNTAIN ROAD
            CLOSED DUE TO WASHOUT.

&&

DWERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
524 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     FLOOD            1 E DANBURY             36.41N 80.20W
09/17/2018                   STOKES             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING OBSERVED ALONG THE DAN RIVER AT MORATOCK PARK.
            SMALL STREAM FLOODING ALSO OBSERVED, INCLUDING FLAT
            SHOALS CREEK NEAR SUNSET PARK CAMPGROUND.

&&

PMANUEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
534 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG STUART                  36.63N 80.28W
09/17/2018                   PATRICK            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            SCATTERED TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.

&&

PMANUEL