Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
230 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably strong upper level low pressure across the Ohio
Valley into the central Appalachians will drift slowly south
across the southern Appalachians through mid-week. A deep,
moist, southerly flow will extend across the region through
at least Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

Our forecast area will continue to be affected by the presence of a
highly amplified pattern, namely the closed low over the eastern
Great Lakes that extends southward all the way across the southeast.
A series of embedded short wave disturbances rotating around the
larger circulation, combined with several sfc boundaries and
convergence zones, will help provide occasional rounds of shower and
tstm activity over the next couple days.

In the near term however, we're keeping our eyes on a couple areas
of low level convergence for renewed convection, namely invof and
east of the central and northern I-95 corridor, where many of the
recent CAM runs, including the HRRR and NAM nest, show ongoing and
additional convection this afternoon.  Latest radar also shows some
scattered showers and tstms west of the Triangle, and those are
expected to slowly drift to the NE. Meanwhile, additional convection
now to our west over the mountains is progged to eventually move
east with deep layer mean flow generally W-SW, and that activity is
expected to affect our western Piedmont zones during the evening
hours.  The main concerns with any of the aforementioned activity
will include heavy downpours, localized poor drainage flooding, and
isolated strong wind gusts. It's worth noting that the best CAPE and
effective shear is currently located (and is progged to remain) east
of the Triangle, so our central and northern Coastal Plain zones may
have the best chance of seeing strong storms and heaviest downpours.

While convection this afternoon and evening across central NC is
expected to diminish after midnight, there are hints in the models
that remnants of the convection currently affecting NE Florida will
move NE and regenerate into a cluster of showers and tstms that will
move northward across eastern NC in the pre-dawn hours.  As such,
will keep chance PoPs going late overnight across our eastern zones.
Lows tonight upper 60s NW to lower 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

Additional rounds/bands of scattered showers and tstms are expected
to develop and move northward across our area during the short term
period, thanks to deep moist southerly flow around the north-to-
south elongated closed low extending from the Great Lakes to the
Deep South.  Several short waves embedded within the larger
circulation will help trigger and focus these rounds of activity.
The main concern given this situation will be the risk for
repetitive moderate to heavy downpours, which could lead to
localized flooding. Right now, it's difficult to pin down which
areas in our CWA will see these bands of rain set up, but for now we
expect a general 1-2 inches of rain across central NC, with spots
that see training cells receiving well more than 2 inches of rain.
Highs on Monday will be dependent on rain and cloud cover, but in
general expecting highs in the 80s.  Lows Monday night in the low
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

The active/wet pattern is likely to continue through most/if not all
of the long term period as the area finds itself sandwiched between
a stalled mid/upper-level trough (west) and a sub-tropical Atlantic
High (east). This will exacerbate southerly/southwesterly fetch
across central NC, providing an airmass characterized by high PWAT
values (consistently in the 1.75 to 2.5 inch range) and persistent
diurnal shower/thunder chances. The airmass attempts to wash-out a
bit toward the end of the period as a frontal boundary approaches
the area from the northwest, however, models tend to agree with this
boundary stalling near/slightly north of the VA/NC border, keeping
us in the warm/humid/stormy airmass for the foreseeable future.

QPF amounts are going to be highly difficult to nail down due to the
convective nature of the precipitation. As an area average, expect
generally 1 to 3 inches of precipitation during this period. Higher
amounts will likely be located across the coastal plain with the
best moisture profile, and across the Piedmont/Triad region which
could see greater coverage thanks to mountain aided development each
afternoon. Flooding concerns will generally be locally dependent on
high rainfall rates and/or training storms across a particular area.
Currently, not a strong signal for potential river flooding
according to MMEFS, but with high QPF amounts expected across the
headwaters region in VA/western NC over the next 7 days, it could
easily transition into more of a concern eventually.

With boundary layer moisture ample through the period, thicknesses
are expected to remain generally near to slightly below normal,
thanks in a large part to persistent cloud cover and/or shower
development during prime daytime heating hours. Expect temperatures
generally in the low to mid 80s to begin the period, with a few
places touching 90 late week as the mid level flow flattens a bit,
and a mid to upper-level low is forecast to transverse through the
Great Lakes region by Friday/Saturday. Lows will generally settle a
bit warmer than normal, in the low to mid 70s during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

Through 18Z Monday... Scattered MVFR and IFR conditions expected
through the period associated with shower and tstm activity. Outside
of this activity, look for VFR conditions.  Winds will generally be
variable 10kt or less, expect invof of tstms where variable gusts
above 30kt are possible.

After 18Z Monday...A cloudy and wet pattern will result in
occasional reduced flight conditions through the rest of the period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...np

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
254 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-231900-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
254 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening, capable of producing very heavy rain that could lead to
local flooding this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become
strong with gusty winds to 50 mph and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall during the work week. The greatest threat for
thunderstorms with heavy rain will be during the afternoon and
evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
154 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

NCZ073-221845-
Stanly NC-
154 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
STANLY COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 154 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms near Plyler, or 7 miles southwest of Albemarle,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, heavy rainfall, and intermittent lightning
will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albemarle, Badin Lake, Plyler, Badin, Richfield, New London, Morrow
Mountain State Park and Lake Tillery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8024 3551 8018 3549 8018 3547 8016
      3547 8014 3545 8011 3542 8009 3540 8009
      3539 8007 3537 8005 3536 8007 3534 8007
      3533 8008 3522 8031 3529 8039
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 223DEG 10KT 3530 8029

MORROW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Raleigh NC
212 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

NCZ011-027-028-043-221845-
Edgecombe-Nash-Halifax-Wilson-
212 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF central
Edgecombe...northeastern Nash...Halifax and north central Wilson
Counties Until 245 PM EDT...

At 211 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS along a line extending from 8 miles west
of Rich Square to 6 miles northeast of Rocky Mount...AND MOVING north
AT 35 MPH.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Rocky Mount...Roanoke Rapids...Tarboro...Halifax...Scotland Neck...
Elm City...Dortches...Enfield...Sharpsburg and Weldon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
TAKE SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER
INDOORS...AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE CAN PROVIDE SAFE SHELTER FROM
LIGHTNING. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7731 3600 7741 3595 7738 3578 7788
      3649 7779 3648 7776 3648 7765 3644 7762
      3641 7755 3637 7755 3634 7759 3632 7757
      3630 7754 3632 7744 3626 7741 3624 7738
      3621 7738 3616 7727 3612 7725 3610 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 176DEG 31KT 3627 7744 3601 7771

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
258 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

NCZ011-028-221945-
Edgecombe NC-Halifax NC-
258 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN EDGECOMBE AND
SOUTHEASTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 257 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tarboro, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Pea size hail, heavy rain, and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tarboro, Scotland Neck, Princeville, Hobgood, Speed and Leggett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 7726 3609 7731 3600 7741 3599 7741
      3596 7738 3583 7750 3588 7762 3626 7751
      3621 7739 3619 7735 3619 7733 3617 7731
      3617 7729 3616 7726 3613 7725 3612 7724
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 204DEG 25KT 3593 7752

MORROW

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