Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Raleigh, NC

648 
WWUS52 KRAH 220153
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
953 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

NCC093-125-153-165-220215-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0119.000000T0000Z-180722T0215Z/
Moore NC-Scotland NC-Richmond NC-Hoke NC-
953 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN MOORE...NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND...NORTHEASTERN RICHMOND
AND HOKE COUNTIES...

At 953 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles west of Hoffman to 10 miles west of Pope AFB,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Southern Pines, Raeford, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Hoffman, Pinebluff,
Foxfire, Derby, Sandhills Game Land and Rockfish.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Straight line winds can blow down trees, power lines, and damage
mobile homes and other buildings. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure
until the storm has passed. Stay away from windows as flying debris
generated by damaging winds can be deadly.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 7957 3504 7972 3516 7973 3517 7967
      3516 7964 3516 7962 3517 7962 3518 7964
      3519 7962 3525 7920 3524 7917 3521 7915
      3519 7910 3513 7911 3509 7909 3504 7909
      3496 7903 3494 7905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 243DEG 11KT 3507 7965 3515 7920 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

26

419 
WWUS52 KRAH 220206
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1006 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

NCC093-125-153-165-220215-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0119.000000T0000Z-180722T0215Z/
Moore NC-Scotland NC-Richmond NC-Hoke NC-
1006 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN MOORE...NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND...NORTHEASTERN RICHMOND
AND HOKE COUNTIES...

At 1006 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Hoffman to 9 miles west of Pope AFB, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Southern Pines, Raeford, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Hoffman, Pinebluff,
Foxfire, Derby, Sandhills Game Land and Rockfish.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to 
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 7948 3504 7965 3515 7972 3517 7967
      3516 7964 3516 7962 3517 7962 3518 7964
      3519 7962 3525 7920 3524 7917 3521 7915
      3519 7910 3513 7911 3509 7909 3504 7909
      3496 7903 3494 7905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 236DEG 10KT 3509 7962 3517 7917 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

26

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
848 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid and upper level low pressure will move SE through the TN
Valley toward the southern Appalachians through Sunday. The upper
trough is forecast to remain just west of our region, bringing a
deep, moist, southerly flow through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

A large mid-level closed low over the southern Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley will set the stage for an unsettled weather pattern during
much of the near, short, and even long term periods. Meanwhile, sfc
low pressure now centered over SE VA and NE NC will move northward
tonight, having little additional impact on our weather.

The main wx story for this evening and overnight will be scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to develop to our
west over the mountains during the next few hours, aided by a mid-
level short wave that will rotate eastward around the southern side
of the aforementioned closed low.  This thunderstorm activity is
then progged by most CAMs to move east across the western Piedmont
during the evening hours, then across the eastern Piedmont by
midnight, before decreasing in coverage and intensity as it
approaches the Coastal Plain after midnight. Given the timing of
this activity and resulting limited instability over our area, and
best deep layer shear to our south, the expectation at this point is
that most storms should remain below svr criteria; however, an
isolated strong storm with gusty winds can't be entirely ruled out
given the dynamic forcing present with this activity.  Lows tonight
around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

The day should start of quiet with subsidence behind tonight's short
wave and convection.  Then as the day progresses and the closed mid-
level low over the Ohio Valley drifts south, we may see another
round of showers and thunderstorms develop to our west over the
mountains and move east into our western zones during the late-day
or evening period.  In terms of temperatures, we should see more
sunshine on Sunday compared to today given that the coastal system
will be gone and given aforementioned early-day subsidence over our
area, thus look for highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

A piece of the closed mid-level low is progged to break off and
slowly drift into deep south region, resulting in a long fetch of
deep moist south to southeasterly flow to become established over
central and eastern NC beginning Monday and lingering perhaps into
Wednesday, before the closed low begins to open up and lift toward
the northeast during the late-week period.  The end result will be
unsettled, to perhaps wet weather right through the long term
period. Temps during this time will be dependent on whether any
breaks in the rain/clouds happen, so for now, will stay close to
climo, or perhaps a few degrees below climo.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 845 PM Saturday...

A strong upper level disturbance will lift newd across the srn
Appalachians and Carolinas tonight, where it will interact with a
surface frontal zone draped at 00Z from near EXX to FAY to PGV. A
weak frontal/surface low and related compact cluster of showers and
storms will likely develop and track newd across cntl NC tonight,
thereby causing initially VFR conditions to become sub-VFR as the
convection moves overhead. Additionally, patches of mainly MVFR
ceilings may develop along and north of the front, including at all
of the cntl NC TAF sites, late tonight and early Sunday. A risk of
an MVFR ceiling will then persist through around 16Z, after which
time cloud bases will have lifted and/or scattered to VFR range.
While scattered showers and storms are expected again Sunday
afternoon and evening, confidence in timing and location precludes
inclusion in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook: Moist and perturbed sly deep layer flow will result in an
above average chance of showers and storms, and late night-early day
sub-VFR ceilings, through the middle of next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
921 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

NCZ007>011-026>028-230130-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-
921 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall during the work week. The greatest threat for
thunderstorms with heavy rain will be during the afternoon and
evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ021>025-038>043-078-230130-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-
921 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few strong thunderstorms are possible overnight. The primary
threat is expected to be wind gusts in excess of 50 MPH and periods
of heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall during the work week. The greatest threat for
thunderstorms with heavy rain will be during the afternoon and
evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089-230130-
Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
921 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible this
evening and overnight. The primary threat is expected to be locally
damaging winds and periods of heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall during the work week. The greatest threat for
thunderstorms with heavy rain will be during the afternoon and
evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
911 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

NCZ075-084>086-220215-
Scotland NC-Richmond NC-Hoke NC-Moore NC-
911 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL
WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MOORE... NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND...CENTRAL
RICHMOND AND HOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 909 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles north of
Rockingham to near Hoffman. Movement was east northeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 or 50 mph and pea-sized hail will be possible
with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Pines, Rockingham, Raeford, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Hoffman,
Pinebluff, Ellerbe, Foxfire and Norman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts of this
magnitude are capable of producing tree damage, including isolated
instances of knocking down small or weakened trees. Unsecured, light
outdoor objects may also blow around.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 7989 3504 7988 3507 7991 3510 7991
      3518 7973 3518 7968 3516 7964 3516 7962
      3517 7962 3520 7966 3522 7922 3516 7910
      3513 7911 3493 7906 3492 7908 3488 7960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 255DEG 15KT 3506 7983 3499 7954

26