Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
508 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Florence will move over the coast of SE North Carolina
today, then move very slowly west or southwest near the coast
of southern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina tonight.
A slow motion to the west over northern South Carolina will follow
Saturday and Sunday. Conditions will finally improve early next week
as the remnants of Florence finally move away.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 445 AM Friday...

No changes this evening to the current watches/advisories etc...

The center of Hurricane Florence is currently only about ~15
miles offshore of Topsail Beach this morning and slowly moving
northwest. Landfall is likely to happen very soon. Across our
region there have been a couple of cells that required a tornado
warning near the Halifax, Warren, and Nash counties earlier
this morning and this also happens to be were the best shear
(40kts effective bulk shear) and ML CAPE (about 500 J/kg)
intersect.

Hurricane Florence will come to a crawl today and is only
forecast to move extremely slowly towards the southwest staying
very close to the NC coastline. By Saturday morning Hurricane
Florence is forecast to still be near the coastline over
northeastern South Carolina. Latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF
continue to advertise a swath of 10" to 20" across central North
Carolina (isolated higher amounts possible) with the NSSL WRF,
and HRRR also on board. These types of rainfall unfortunately
make sense given the strong low level moisture transport
convergence on the back side of the storm. Given the above have
continued the Flash Flood Watch into Monday evening. Saturday
afternoon into evening Hurricane Florence will then begin to
pull more west and then northwest and head towards Asheville,
NC.

What does this mean for our area? This means that a prolonged
period of torrential rainfall can be expected across most of
central North Carolina. Flash flooding of creeks, rivers,
streams, and nearby roadways, and washouts of area bridges are
likely. This will likely result in catastrophic and life
threatening flash flooding and extensive prolonged river
flooding across the lower Neuse, Black, and Cape Fear river
basins.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 425 AM Friday...

Saturday night through Sunday night... The remnant circulation of
Florence which should be centered over northern South Carolina on
Saturday evening will move slowly west on Sunday and then begin to
lift north into the Appalachians. As the surface low slips west, a
persistent southerly, convergent flow will produce an arc of
widespread moderate to heavy rain across the state. The greatest
rain coverage will be across the southern Piedmont and Sandhills
where we will maintain 90 PoPs with PoPs in the likely range to the
northeast.

Rainfall amounts during the period will average between 2 and 5
inches with lesser amounts across the far northeast Piedmont and
northern Coastal Plain. This additional rain is likely to exasperate
anticipated flooding issues across the southern tier including the
Neuse, Cape Fear, Black and Yadkin river basins where river flooding
may become extreme.

Windy conditions with winds of 15 to 25 MPH with gusts near 40 MPH
on Saturday evening will gradually abate as the remnant low weakens
and pushes away. Given the wet soil, additional issues with falling
trees are expected.

With lots of clouds and widespread rain, little diurnal temperature
change is expected. Morning lows will range around 70 with afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Friday...

The remnant circulation of Florence is expected to lift northeast
through the lower Ohio Valley and northeastern United States Monday
and Tuesday. This will mean the trailing rain bands and associated
weather hazards will come to an end by Sunday night or Monday
for the region.

The trailing surface trough will keep a lingering chance of
mainly diurnal showers and storms into Tuesday afternoon
and possibly Wednesday afternoon. Hot and humid conditions will
also linger through midweek. Lows in the lower to mid 70s
(well above normal) will continue into Wednesday, with highs
in the 80s.

Finally, a pattern change with a true cold frontal passage is
expected late Wednesday. A breath of fresh air courtesy of a
Canadian high pressure will arrive by Thursday and Friday. Lows by
Friday may finally dip into the 50s across the northern Piedmont,
with highs only 80-85.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Mainly MVFR ceilings will prevail through the TAF period, amidst
moist, nely low level flow between high pressure over the Northeast
and Hurricane Florence nearing the srn NC coast. The slow wwd drift
of the hurricane will also cause already strong NNELY surface winds
to strengthen further across cntl NC today - strongest at FAY, in
closest proximity to the center of Florence. While outer bands of
showers will pivot swwd and affect RWI, FAY, and RDU this morning, a
shield of heavy, tropical precipitation with reduced visibilities,
and stronger and more numerous outer bands of showers and storms,
will pivot wwd across cntl NC through this evening, including into
the GSO and INT vicinity between 00Z-06Z.

Outlook: Florence will eventually arc swd across SC Sat and Sat
night, then lift nwd and newd through the Appalachians through early
next week. Breezy to windy conditions, periods of continued tropical
downpours, storms, and isolated tornadoes --and sub-VFR conditions--
will result, with improving conditions by Tue.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Hurricane Warning for NCZ078-089.
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for NCZ021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ026>028-040>043-075>077-084>086-
088.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
721 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

NCZ021>025-038-039-073-074-083-151200-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-
Montgomery-Anson-
721 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

In addition, isolated tornadoes will be possible on Sunday.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ007>011-151200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-
721 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

It will become increasingly windy across the far northern counties
of central North Carolina as Hurricane Florence moves onshore. The
wind gusts will be strong enough to down a few large tree limbs.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Prolonged rain and wind Friday and Friday night will result in a few
downed trees, leading to sporadic power outages and isolated flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ026>028-041>043-077-151200-
Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-
721 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ040-075-076-084>086-088-151200-
Chatham-Moore-Lee-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
721 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

In addition, isolated tornadoes will be possible this weekend.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ078-089-151200-
Wayne-Sampson-
721 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

In addition, the threat of few tornadoes will continue, and perhaps
even increase, overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

In addition, the threat of few tornadoes will continue through the
weekend, particularly on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
256 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 AM     TROPICAL STORM   4 ENE HOPE MILLS        34.99N 78.89W
09/14/2018                   CUMBERLAND         NC   ASOS

            GUST OF 51 MPH AT FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL
            AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
329 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 AM     TROPICAL STORM   4 E EAST LAURINBURG     34.78N 79.37W
09/14/2018                   SCOTLAND           NC   ASOS

            GUST TO 40 MPH AT LAURINBURG-MAXTON AIRPORT.

&&

GIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
419 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 AM     TROPICAL STORM   4 ENE HOPE MILLS        34.99N 78.88W
09/14/2018                   CUMBERLAND         NC   ASOS

            GUST OF 52 MPH AT FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL
            AIRPORT.

&&

BAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
543 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 AM     TROPICAL STORM   4 ENE HOPE MILLS        34.99N 78.88W
09/14/2018                   CUMBERLAND         NC   ASOS

            GUST TO 54 REPORTED AT FAY.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
657 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

NCZ042-043-077-078-088-089-141145-
Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Harnett NC-Wayne NC-Cumberland NC-Wilson NC-
657 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FLORENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS THIS
MORNING...

At 651 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated rainbands associated with
Hurricane Florence were spreading into Wilson, Wayne, Johnston,
Harnett, Cumberland and Sampson counties. Moderate to heavy rain
will become more widespread through the mid-morning.

Torrential downpours and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Goldsboro, Smithfield, Clinton, Lillington, Fort Bragg,
Wilson, Clayton, Dunn and Mount Olive.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 7850 3483 7890 3495 7904 3519 7910
      3527 7922 3534 7915 3574 7822 3575 7820
      3587 7783 3583 7775 3568 7766 3557 7782
      3518 7783 3515 7790 3519 7802 3519 7816
      3490 7815 3474 7820 3471 7811 3456 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1051Z 068DEG 46KT 3572 7790

Smith