Areal Flood Advisory 285, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
412 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary boundary remains south of the region through the
weekend as high pressure over central Canada moves into New
England. The remnant low of Gordon will move from the Midwest
into the Ohio Valley today and tonight, then pass north and west
of the region Sunday and Monday. A weak cold front may cross
the area Tuesday behind the departing low. High pressure then
builds in from the north. There remains uncertainty regarding
the track and potential impacts of Florence for the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast for the middle to end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers with heavy downpours have developed as expected
near/northwest of the I-95 corridor early this morning.
Meanwhile, stronger convection continues to develop in Delmarva
eastward into the Atlantic waters. Rain rates with the Delmarva
convection have been observed to exceed 2 inches per hour.
However, flash flood guidance is relatively high, so not much
flooding has been reported in these areas overnight.
Nevertheless, the threat of flooding remains, especially with
storms moving off Chesapeake Bay. Moreover, redevelopment on the
upstream side (i.e., training) continues...a result of
tropospheric flow parallel to the broad deformation zone across
the northern/central Mid-Atlantic. Quick 1-3 inch totals are
likely near the strongest convective cores this morning (central
Delmarva). Farther north, showers may produce 0.5+ inch totals
in an hour. However, southeast PA and central NJ are much more
susceptible to flooding given the heavy precipitation that
occurred last evening. Areal flood warnings continue for
portions of Berks, Montgomery, Philadelphia, Delaware, Camden,
and Gloucester Counties, where residual flooding from earlier
rains continues and where additional rainfall will only
exacerbate ongoing issues.

The strong perturbation that is allowing the precipitation to
develop early this morning will be moving through the coastal
Mid-Atlantic during the day. This should allow the strongest
lift to progress offshore by afternoon, though showers/isolated
storms may linger in Delmarva and far southern NJ through
afternoon. In general, this is simulated by the hi-res models,
but the convective evolution proposed by the HRRR/NAM Nest/WRF-
ARW/NMM has not verified reasonably well against what has
transpired the past 12 hours. Moreover, the current
precipitation is handled very poorly by the HRRR/WRF-ARW/NAM and
is too transient in the NAM Nest. Therefore, relied heavily on
the NAM/HREF for the forecast evolution of the precipitation
this morning. To this end, have high PoPs through 12Z south of
the I-78 corridor gradually sinking southward to the I-76
corridor by 15Z and from roughly Dover to Atlantic City
southward by 18Z. Thereafter, PoPs are fairly steady through the
rest of the afternoon, which may end up being fairly dry for
most of the area outside of the far south (not confident enough
to lower PoPs quite yet).

Clouds will remain thick through the day, and temperatures will
be very cool compared to the past several. Not expecting much
recovery at all, as onshore flow generated by a building surface
high to the north will shunt the warmer air southward.
Generally have near-steady temperatures through the daytime
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight, the remnants of Gordon will begin to affect the area.
The remnant low will be in the Ohio River Valley, but a zonally-
oriented baroclinic zone will stretch eastward to the central
Mid-Atlantic. Considerable ascent downstream of the low will
generate widespread rain/showers from the Midwest to the central
Appalachians during the evening. This will spread eastward to
our CWA around/after midnight. Precipitation during the night
will start out light, but begin to become steadier/heavier by
12Z Sunday. Given the very susceptible saturated soils in PA and
adjacent portions of New Jersey, issued a flood watch for these
areas beginning at 06Z. The biggest threat will be on Sunday,
but given that the precipitation will begin during the overnight
period, felt prudent to go wide with the timing (per
coordination with CTP/BGM).

This precipitation will be the result of low-level isentropic
ascent (aided by differential cyclonic vorticity advection
downstream of a series of perturbations moving through the
region overnight), and little instability will be present. No
thunder is placed in the forecast, but given the high-octane air
in place and deep warm-cloud layer, heavy downpours are
possible, especially if any convective cells are generated.

Temperatures tonight will be chilly, as cold-air damming will be
firmly entrenched in the area. Expect readings in the 40s in the
southern Poconos, 50s northwest of the Fall Line, and low 60s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A prolonged period of unsettled weather is on tap for this week
and into next weekend.

With the remnant low of Gordon over the Ohio Valley and lifting
to the north and west of the region, strong onshore flow will
develop, and abundant low level moisture will spread into the
region. PWATs will build to 1.75-2", and this sets the stage for
the moisture needed for widespread heavy rain across the region.

With several strong shortwaves associated with the remnant low
of Gordon passing north of the region, several rounds of heavy
rain and thunderstorms will impact the area Sunday through
Monday. In general, 1 to 3 inches of rain will fall across
southeast PA and most of NJ, but 5 inches or more are possible
in training of thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is now in effect for
those areas, and this Watch may have to be expanded southward.

The remnant low of Gordon will move into the Great Lakes region
on Monday, which will pull a warm front north through the
region. The low will then track across northern New England
Monday night into Tuesday, which may then bring a cold front
into our area. Showers and thunderstorms will remain likely into
early next week as these frontal boundaries affect the area and
additional short wave/vorticity impulses move across the area.

This front may wash out or stall as it moves into our area by
Wednesday. If the front stalls out across or near our area,
showers and thunderstorms could continue to develop again on
Wednesday across portions of the area as additional short
wave/vorticity impulses affect the region, especially eastern
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.

The attention for the end of the period turns to Florence and
its possible effects for the east coast. The latest track from
the NHC brings Florence into the western Atlantic by Wednesday.
At that point, there is still uncertainty with the eventual
track of Florence. The risk for impacts along the east coast has
increased. However, the uncertainty with the model guidance
this far out makes it difficult to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts our region will have. At
this point, there is the potential for a period of heavy rain
and strong winds by the end of next week unless the storm takes
a turn out to sea, which still remains a possibility. At this
time and through the weekend, continue to monitor the forecasts
from the NHC on the track of Florence and begin thinking of
possible preparations in case our area does have an impact from
the storm.

One effect regardless of Florence's track will be in increase
in wave action and large swells along the ocean front, which
will lead to increased rip current risk and possible coastal
flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...Highly variable conditions expected, though
predominant MVFR CIGs should persist at the terminals. Temporary IFR
conditions may occur, especially in proximity to showers. Coverage
of showers is uncertain, but brief impacts at the Philly terminals
and south/east are anticipated at times through daybreak. Thunder is
becoming increasingly unlikely, but cannot rule it out entirely. For
now, have left it out of the TAFs. Winds generally north to
northeast under 10 kts. Low confidence.

Saturday...Gradual improvement to VFR CIGs is expected, but this
process will be slow south/east of the Philly terminals. Chances of
showers will diminish during the day. Winds becoming east to
northeast 7 to 15 kts with potential for gusts 20+ kts at ACY/MIV.
Moderate confidence.

Saturday night...Conditions will deteriorate once again to MVFR or
lower, especially after midnight. Rain/showers will move in from the
southwest during the night, with lowered VSBYs probable once
precipitation begins. Thunder is not expected. Winds northeast 5 to
15 kts, potentially with higher gusts near the coast. Low confidence.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday-Monday...A prolonged period of MVFR/IFR conditions in
widespread rain and stratus, with the potential for LIFR
conditions in heavy Isolated thunderstorms possible as well.
Northeast to east winds could gust 20-25 knots, then become
southeast by Monday.

Monday night-Wednesday...Conditions may vary between VFR and
MVFR through the period with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Winds vary between southeast to south around 5-10
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas will be increasing slowly through the day. Northeast
winds will be increasing with time, with somewhat lower speeds
on Delaware Bay and the Delaware Atlantic waters versus the New
Jersey Atlantic waters, especially this morning. By this
afternoon, speeds will generally be 15 to 20 kts with gusts to
25 kts or more everywhere. Seas will slowly rise in excess of 5
feet today (possibly lagging a little bit on the Delaware
waters).

Regarding precipitation, showers and scattered storms will
continue this morning and may linger into the afternoon hours
off the southern New Jersey and Delaware coasts. Locally higher
winds/waves should be expected near any showers/storms.

Tonight, conditions will deteriorate as northeast winds slowly
increase and seas build to 5 to 9 feet. Meanwhile, rain/showers
will be moving in from the southwest, especially after midnight.
Visibility restrictions may occur if fairly widespread
precipitation develops.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday-Sunday night...Gale Force wind gusts of 35-40 knots
possible. Gale Watch remains in effect.

Monday...Conditions likely to lower to Small Craft Advisory
levels with gusts 25-30 knots lowering during the day and seas
around 5-7 feet remaining.

Monday night-Wednesday...Winds may remain below advisory
levels, however, long period swells from Florence are likely to
reach the waters, leading to 6-9 feet.

RIP CURRENTS...

A high risk of rip currents has been issued for today.
Northeast winds will be increasing through the day, and seas
will be building to 5 to 9 feet by tonight. Waves in the surf
zone will likely exceed 5 feet by late this afternoon and will
continue to increase tonight. With the additional influence of
the new moon, the ingredients exist for the development of
dangerous rip currents.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The astronomical tides associated with the new moon in June,
July and August were particularly high this year. The same is
true with September's new moon which occurs on Sunday.

The high astronomical tides along with a developing onshore
flow will result in some tidal flooding over the next few days
in coastal areas of New Jersey and Delaware, and up along
Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River. The evening high
tides will be higher than those in the morning.

The northeast wind is expected to strengthen on Saturday and
that should lead to a more widespread minor flooding event with
Saturday evening's high tide. We may very well issue an advisory
for that period of time.

The northeast wind is forecast to increase even more for Sunday
with gale force gusts anticipated. Spotty minor flooding is
expected with Sunday morning's high tide. The evening high tide
on Sunday should produce the most flooding, with widespread
minor flooding in coastal areas of New Jersey and Delaware, and
up along Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River. Some
locations should experience moderate flooding.

The onshore flow is expected to begin easing early in the new
week. However, residual minor flooding is likely at least into
Monday night.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KDOX radar remains inoperable. Water damage to the radar
transmitter and product generator is still being assessed. Due
to the unknown extent of the damage, there is no estimated time
for the radar's return to service.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for
     PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for
     NJZ001-007>010-012>015-017>020-026-027.
     High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NJZ014-024>026.
DE...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ431-450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ430.

&&

Synopsis...MPS
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...MPS
Aviation...CMS/MPS
Marine...CMS/MPS
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Equipment...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1123 PM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>105-090330-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-
Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
1123 PM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey,
northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast
Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance for heavy rainfall and localized flooding with one
or more rounds of storms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is the potential for locally heavy rain from the weekend into
the early part of the new week which could lead to localized
flooding.

The latest track from the NHC brings Florence into the western
Atlantic by Wednesday. At that point, there is still uncertainty
with the eventual track of Florence. The risk for impacts along the
East Coast has increased. However, the uncertainty with the model
guidance this far out makes it difficult to determine the exact
location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts our region will
have. At this point, there is the potential for a period of heavy
rain and strong winds by the end of next week unless the storm takes
a turn out to sea, which still remains a possibility. At this time
and through the weekend, continue to monitor the forecasts from the
NHC on the track of Florence and begin thinking of possible
preparations in case our area does have an impact from the storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ015-017>019-PAZ070-071-106-090330-
Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Lower Bucks-
1123 PM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, southern
New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance for heavy rainfall and localized flooding with one
or more rounds of storms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is the potential for locally heavy rain from the weekend into
the early part of the new week which could lead to localized
flooding.

Minor tidal flooding is likely with the high tides on Saturday,
Sunday, and Monday due to high astronomical tides associated with
the new moon and an onshore wind.

The latest track from the NHC brings Florence into the western
Atlantic by Wednesday. At that point, there is still uncertainty
with the eventual track of Florence. The risk for impacts along the
East Coast has increased. However, the uncertainty with the model
guidance this far out makes it difficult to determine the exact
location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts our region will
have. At this point, there is the potential for a period of heavy
rain and strong winds by the end of next week unless the storm takes
a turn out to sea, which still remains a possibility. At this time
and through the weekend, continue to monitor the forecasts from the
NHC on the track of Florence and begin thinking of possible
preparations in case our area does have an impact from the storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-090330-
Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
1123 PM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance for heavy rainfall and localized flooding with one
or more rounds of storms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is the potential for locally heavy rain from the weekend into
the early part of the new week which could lead to localized
flooding.

The latest track from the NHC brings Florence into the western
Atlantic by Wednesday. At that point, there is still uncertainty
with the eventual track of Florence. The risk for impacts along the
East Coast has increased. However, the uncertainty with the model
guidance this far out makes it difficult to determine the exact
location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts our region will
have. At this point, there is the potential for a period of heavy
rain and strong winds by the end of next week unless the storm takes
a turn out to sea, which still remains a possibility. At this time
and through the weekend, continue to monitor the forecasts from the
NHC on the track of Florence and begin thinking of possible
preparations in case our area does have an impact from the storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001>003-NJZ012-013-016-020>023-027-090330-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Salem-Ocean-
Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Southeastern Burlington-
1123 PM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, central New Jersey, northern New
Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance for heavy rainfall and localized flooding with one
or more rounds of storms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is the potential for locally heavy rain from the weekend into
the early part of the new week which could lead to localized
flooding.

Minor tidal flooding is likely with the high tides on Saturday,
Sunday and Monday due to high astronomical tides associated with the
new moon and an onshore wind.

The latest track from the NHC brings Florence into the western
Atlantic by Wednesday. At that point, there is still uncertainty
with the eventual track of Florence. The risk for impacts along the
East Coast has increased. However, the uncertainty with the model
guidance this far out makes it difficult to determine the exact
location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts our region will
have. At this point, there is the potential for a period of heavy
rain and strong winds by the end of next week unless the storm takes
a turn out to sea, which still remains a possibility. At this time
and through the weekend, continue to monitor the forecasts from the
NHC on the track of Florence and begin thinking of possible
preparations in case our area does have an impact from the storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-090330-
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
1123 PM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Minor tidal flooding is likely with the high tides on Saturday,
Sunday and Monday due to high astronomical tides associated with the
new moon and an onshore wind.

The latest track from the NHC brings Florence into the western
Atlantic by Wednesday. At that point, there is still uncertainty
with the eventual track of Florence. The risk for impacts along the
East Coast has increased. However, the uncertainty with the model
guidance this far out makes it difficult to determine the exact
location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts our region will
have. At this point, there is the potential for a period of heavy
rain and strong winds by the end of next week unless the storm takes
a turn out to sea, which still remains a possibility. At this time
and through the weekend, continue to monitor the forecasts from the
NHC on the track of Florence and begin thinking of possible
preparations in case our area does have an impact from the storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-090330-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1123 PM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

The latest track from the NHC brings Florence into the western
Atlantic by Wednesday. At that point, there is still uncertainty
with the eventual track of Florence. The risk for impacts along the
East Coast has increased. However, the uncertainty with the model
guidance this far out makes it difficult to determine the exact
location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts our region will
have. At this point, there is the potential for a period of heavy
rain and strong winds by the end of next week unless the storm takes
a turn out to sea, which still remains a possibility. At this time
and through the weekend, continue to monitor the forecasts from the
NHC on the track of Florence and begin thinking of possible
preparations in case our area does have an impact from the storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

CMS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW BELLMAWR           39.85N  75.11W
09/07/2018                   GLOUCESTER         NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING ON THE NEW JERSEY TURNPIKE IN
            DEPTFORD TOWNSHIP. MULTIPLE LANES CLOSED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1801508

CMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
144 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE WESTVILLE          39.86N  75.12W
09/07/2018                   GLOUCESTER         NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SEVERAL LANE CLOSURES ON INTERSTATE 295 NEAR THE
            INTERSTATE 76/676 INTERCHANGE...WHICH HAVE LASTED FOR
            SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...ROUTE 42 WAS FLOODED NEAR
            THE INTERSTATE 295 INTERCHANGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1801509

CMS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
246 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 AM     FLOOD            1 S MUHLENBERG TWP      40.37N  75.93W
09/08/2018                   BERKS              PA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED ON STATE HIGHWAY 12.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1801511

CMS