Areal Flood Advisory 284, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
119 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will stall to our south over the weekend, as high
pressure builds out of southern Canada and into northern New
England by Sunday. This front is expected to lift back northward
Monday as the remnant low of Gordon pass across the Great Lakes
region. A cold front may move into the area on Tuesday as this
low moves across northern New England. There remains uncertainty
on the track and potential impacts of Florence for the Mid
Atlantic and northeast states for the second half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
115 am mesoscale update: Convection is slowly developing
northwest of the I-95 corridor at this time. This is tied to
low-level frontogenetical forcing as the upstream surface high
builds southeastward into the Northeast and impinges on the
residual baroclinic zone draped across the central Mid-Atlantic.
The question during the next several hours is, as the large-
scale ascent increases while this process continues/intensifies,
will stronger convection sustain itself given the antecedent
precipitation this evening in much of the area? Given radar
trends and latest hi-res guidance, there is reason to be
skeptical. Nevertheless, in areas closer to more considerable
boundary-layer based instability (i.e., central/southern
Delmarva), stronger storms with intense rain rates are
occurring. Surface observations in southern Sussex County
indicate 2-4 inch per hour rainfall rates have occurred the past
couple hours. The threat of isolated flash flooding remains,
and if precipitation can develop, intensify, and grow
upscale/increase organization, other instances of localized
flooding may occur farther north into Delmarva, far southeast
PA, and southern NJ.

Updated forecast to increase PoPs south of the I-76/I-276/I-195
corridors the rest of the night given latest radar trends.
Temps/dews/winds/sky cover look OK for the moment.

1130 pm mesoscale update: Getting concerned about the convection
west/northwest of Chesapeake Bay. Last night's NAM simulation
had this covered reasonably well (though somewhat farther
north), indicating that this precipitation will expand through
the night as it sluggishly moves eastward into central/southern
portions of the area. The current 00Z run has this threat
primarily in northern Maryland, but there are indications that
this may be too far south. Additionally, there are increasing
indications more convection may develop eastward into far
southeast PA and central/southern NJ after 06Z. Should this
occur, locally heavy rainfall will pose an additional risk for
flash flooding. Will continue to monitor and update the forecast
as confidence in the unfolding scenario increases...

Previous discussion...

Heavy showers and thunderstorms with flash flooding abound the
metro Philadelphia area this evening. The rainfall total at KPHL
is now over 4.25 inches for the day ! Numerous reports of
flooding/flash flooding around the region. Earlier today, Cape
May county NJ and Sussex/Kent counties of Delaware also had
locally excessive precipitation.

Regional radars show that the activity across srn NJ is slowly
diminishing and moving E while a pocket in SW NJ remains fairly
active. More showers moving E from MD will affect Delmarva and
srn NJ through the early overnight. Pops generally left at
likely for most areas and will taper down after midnight. No
pops for low chc pops for the far north.

Not many changes made/needed to winds or temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
To start the day, cold frontal boundary will be continuing to
get suppressed to our south as high pressure builds S/E through
Ontario and Quebec. Expect that some rain/showers will be
ongoing into the morning from around the I-76 corridor
southward. Beyond this point, trend should should be for this to
generally diminish north to south though some uncertainty
exists on how quickly this occurs. NAM keeps rain/showers in
much of the day while GEM Regional (at the opposite extreme)is
forecasting a mainly dry day. Stayed close to a middle ground
between these extremes. In any event, much cooler, drier and
more stable air will be filtering in so threat for thunder and
heavy rainfall will be low. Otherwise, the day should be mostly
cloudy with cool NE breezes and much lower dew points. Expect
highs in the low to mid 70s except mid to upper 60s over the
southern Poconos.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An active period continues to be expected to continue for the
end of the weekend into early next week with periods of heavy
rainfall possible.

For Saturday night through Sunday night, high pressure will
continue pushing across southeast Canada and northern New
England, but lose its effect on our area. This will allow
moisture to lift into our area, north of the frontal boundary
that remains south of our area. Multiple short wave/vorticity
impulses will be moving across our area within the west-
southwest flow aloft, which will lead to enhanced lift across
the area. PW values will increase again to 1.75- 2.00 inches
during this time as well. So we expect rainfall to increase in
coverage Saturday night, most likely across the southern half of
the area, from the Philadelphia metro areas southward. Then
begin to spread northward Sunday into Sunday night affecting
much of the rest of the area. Period of moderate to heavy
rainfall are possible during this time as well.

The remnants of Gordon are forecast to move into the Great
Lakes region on Monday, which will lift the front to our south
across our area as a warm front. The low will then track across
northern New England Monday night into Tuesday, which may then
bring a cold front into our area. Showers and thunderstorms will
remain likely into early next week as these frontal boundaries
affect the area and additional short wave/vorticity impulses
move across the area.

This front may wash out or stall as it moves into our area by
Wednesday. If the front stalls out across or near our area,
showers and thunderstorms could continue to develop again on
Wednesday across portions of the area as additional short
wave/vorticity impulses affect the region, especially eastern
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.

The attention for the end of the period turns to Florence and
its possible effects for the east coast. The latest track from
the NHC brings Florence into the western Atlantic by Wednesday.
At that point, there is still uncertainty with the eventual
track of Florence. The risk for impacts along the east coast has
increased. However, the uncertainty with the model guidance
this far out makes it difficult to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts our region will have. At
this point, there is the potential for a period of heavy rain
and strong winds by the end of next week unless the storm takes
a turn out to sea, which still remains a possibility. At this
time and through the weekend, continue to monitor the forecasts
from the NHC on the track of Florence and begin thinking of
possible preparations in case our area does have an impact from
the storm.

One effect regardless of Florence's track will be in increase
in wave action and large swells along the ocean front, which
will lead to increased rip current risk and possible coastal
flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...Highly variable conditions expected, though
predominant MVFR CIGs should persist at the terminals.
Temporary IFR conditions may occur, especially in proximity to
showers. Coverage of showers is uncertain, but brief impacts at
the Philly terminals and south/east are anticipated at times
through daybreak. Thunder is becoming increasingly unlikely, but
cannot rule it out entirely. For now, have left it out of the
TAFs. Winds generally north to northeast under 10 kts. Low
confidence.

Saturday...Gradual improvement to VFR CIGs is expected, but this
process will be slow south/east of the Philly terminals. Chances
of showers will diminish during the day. Winds becoming east to
northeast 7 to 15 kts with potential for gusts 20+ kts at
ACY/MIV. Moderate confidence.

Saturday night...Conditions will deteriorate once again to MVFR
or lower, especially after midnight. Rain/showers will move in
from the southwest during the night, with lowered VSBYs probable
once precipitation begins. Thunder is not expected. Winds
northeast 5 to 15 kts, potentially with higher gusts near the
coast. Low confidence.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday-Monday...MVFR, possibly IFR conditions, with periods of
rain. Isolated thunderstorms possible as well. Some rain may be
moderate to heavy at time. Northeast to east winds could gust
20-25 knots, then become southeast by Monday.

Monday night-Wednesday...Conditions may vary between VFR and
MVFR through the period with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Winds vary between southeast to south around 5-10
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas will be below advisory criteria through tonight.
However, northeast winds will gradually increase through the
period, with speeds of 10 to 20 kts by the overnight (somewhat
lighter on Delaware Bay). Seas will be building as well,
gradually becoming 3 to 4 feet on the Atlantic waters (waves 2
to 3 feet on Delaware Bay).

A chance of showers and storms exists and this could bring
locally higher winds and seas...especially through this evening.

Saturday...Winds/seas continue to ramp up with SCA conditions
expected. Generally expect northeast winds increasing to 20-25
knots with gusts up to 30 knots and seas increasing to 5 to 8
feet over the ocean waters.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions remain across
the waters with gusts 25-30 knots and seas building to 5-8 feet.

Sunday-Sunday night...Gale Force wind gusts of 35-40 knots
possible. Gale Watch in effect.

Monday...Conditions likely to lower to Small Craft Advisory
levels with gusts 25-30 knots lowering during the day and seas
around 5-7 feet remaining.

Monday night-Wednesday...Winds may remain below advisory
levels, however, long period swells from Florence are likely to
reach the waters, leading to 6-9 feet.

RIP CURRENTS...

A high risk of rip currents has been issued for tomorrow. Sent
out rip current statement and updated HWO accordingly.

An enhanced risk of rip currents is expected to continue for
the weekend through next week. First associated with the east-
northeast flow around the high to our north, then with building
seas and swells associated with Florence as it approaches the
western Atlantic.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The astronomical tides associated with the new moon in June,
July and August were particularly high this year. The same is
true with September's new moon which occurs on Sunday.

The high astronomical tides along with a developing onshore
flow will result in some tidal flooding over the next few days
in coastal areas of New Jersey and Delaware, and up along
Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River. The evening high
tides will be higher than those in the morning.

The northeast wind is expected to strengthen on Saturday and
that should lead to a more widespread minor flooding event with
Saturday evening's high tide. We may very well issue an advisory
for that period of time.

The northeast wind is forecast to increase even more for Sunday
with gale force gusts anticipated. Spotty minor flooding is
expected with Sunday morning's high tide. The evening high tide
on Sunday should produce the most flooding, with widespread
minor flooding in coastal areas of New Jersey and Delaware, and
up along Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River. Some
locations should experience moderate flooding.

The onshore flow is expected to begin easing early in the new
week. However, residual minor flooding is likely at least into
Monday night.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KDOX radar remains inoperable. Water damage to the radar
transmitter and product generator is still being assessed. Due
to the unknown extent of the damage, there is no estimated time
for the radar's return to service.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NJZ014-024>026.
DE...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ431-450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ430.

&&

Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...CMS/Fitzsimmons/O'Hara
Short Term...Fitzsimmons
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...CMS/Robertson
Marine...CMS/Fitzsimmons/Robertson
Tides/Coastal Flooding...CMS/Iovino
Equipment...Robertson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1123 PM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>105-090330-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-
Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
1123 PM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey,
northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast
Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance for heavy rainfall and localized flooding with one
or more rounds of storms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is the potential for locally heavy rain from the weekend into
the early part of the new week which could lead to localized
flooding.

The latest track from the NHC brings Florence into the western
Atlantic by Wednesday. At that point, there is still uncertainty
with the eventual track of Florence. The risk for impacts along the
East Coast has increased. However, the uncertainty with the model
guidance this far out makes it difficult to determine the exact
location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts our region will
have. At this point, there is the potential for a period of heavy
rain and strong winds by the end of next week unless the storm takes
a turn out to sea, which still remains a possibility. At this time
and through the weekend, continue to monitor the forecasts from the
NHC on the track of Florence and begin thinking of possible
preparations in case our area does have an impact from the storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ015-017>019-PAZ070-071-106-090330-
Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Lower Bucks-
1123 PM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, southern
New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance for heavy rainfall and localized flooding with one
or more rounds of storms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is the potential for locally heavy rain from the weekend into
the early part of the new week which could lead to localized
flooding.

Minor tidal flooding is likely with the high tides on Saturday,
Sunday, and Monday due to high astronomical tides associated with
the new moon and an onshore wind.

The latest track from the NHC brings Florence into the western
Atlantic by Wednesday. At that point, there is still uncertainty
with the eventual track of Florence. The risk for impacts along the
East Coast has increased. However, the uncertainty with the model
guidance this far out makes it difficult to determine the exact
location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts our region will
have. At this point, there is the potential for a period of heavy
rain and strong winds by the end of next week unless the storm takes
a turn out to sea, which still remains a possibility. At this time
and through the weekend, continue to monitor the forecasts from the
NHC on the track of Florence and begin thinking of possible
preparations in case our area does have an impact from the storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-090330-
Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
1123 PM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance for heavy rainfall and localized flooding with one
or more rounds of storms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is the potential for locally heavy rain from the weekend into
the early part of the new week which could lead to localized
flooding.

The latest track from the NHC brings Florence into the western
Atlantic by Wednesday. At that point, there is still uncertainty
with the eventual track of Florence. The risk for impacts along the
East Coast has increased. However, the uncertainty with the model
guidance this far out makes it difficult to determine the exact
location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts our region will
have. At this point, there is the potential for a period of heavy
rain and strong winds by the end of next week unless the storm takes
a turn out to sea, which still remains a possibility. At this time
and through the weekend, continue to monitor the forecasts from the
NHC on the track of Florence and begin thinking of possible
preparations in case our area does have an impact from the storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001>003-NJZ012-013-016-020>023-027-090330-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Salem-Ocean-
Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Southeastern Burlington-
1123 PM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, central New Jersey, northern New
Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance for heavy rainfall and localized flooding with one
or more rounds of storms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is the potential for locally heavy rain from the weekend into
the early part of the new week which could lead to localized
flooding.

Minor tidal flooding is likely with the high tides on Saturday,
Sunday and Monday due to high astronomical tides associated with the
new moon and an onshore wind.

The latest track from the NHC brings Florence into the western
Atlantic by Wednesday. At that point, there is still uncertainty
with the eventual track of Florence. The risk for impacts along the
East Coast has increased. However, the uncertainty with the model
guidance this far out makes it difficult to determine the exact
location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts our region will
have. At this point, there is the potential for a period of heavy
rain and strong winds by the end of next week unless the storm takes
a turn out to sea, which still remains a possibility. At this time
and through the weekend, continue to monitor the forecasts from the
NHC on the track of Florence and begin thinking of possible
preparations in case our area does have an impact from the storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-090330-
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
1123 PM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Minor tidal flooding is likely with the high tides on Saturday,
Sunday and Monday due to high astronomical tides associated with the
new moon and an onshore wind.

The latest track from the NHC brings Florence into the western
Atlantic by Wednesday. At that point, there is still uncertainty
with the eventual track of Florence. The risk for impacts along the
East Coast has increased. However, the uncertainty with the model
guidance this far out makes it difficult to determine the exact
location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts our region will
have. At this point, there is the potential for a period of heavy
rain and strong winds by the end of next week unless the storm takes
a turn out to sea, which still remains a possibility. At this time
and through the weekend, continue to monitor the forecasts from the
NHC on the track of Florence and begin thinking of possible
preparations in case our area does have an impact from the storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-090330-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1123 PM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

The latest track from the NHC brings Florence into the western
Atlantic by Wednesday. At that point, there is still uncertainty
with the eventual track of Florence. The risk for impacts along the
East Coast has increased. However, the uncertainty with the model
guidance this far out makes it difficult to determine the exact
location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts our region will
have. At this point, there is the potential for a period of heavy
rain and strong winds by the end of next week unless the storm takes
a turn out to sea, which still remains a possibility. At this time
and through the weekend, continue to monitor the forecasts from the
NHC on the track of Florence and begin thinking of possible
preparations in case our area does have an impact from the storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

CMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1153 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLOOD            EXETER TWP              40.31N  75.85W
09/07/2018                   BERKS              PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            REPORT OF FLOODING ON CONSTITUTION AVENUE AND
            SHELBOURNE ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1801506

CMS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW BELLMAWR           39.85N  75.11W
09/07/2018                   GLOUCESTER         NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING ON THE NEW JERSEY TURNPIKE IN
            DEPTFORD TOWNSHIP. MULTIPLE LANES CLOSED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1801508

CMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
144 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE WESTVILLE          39.86N  75.12W
09/07/2018                   GLOUCESTER         NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SEVERAL LANE CLOSURES ON INTERSTATE 295 NEAR THE
            INTERSTATE 76/676 INTERCHANGE...WHICH HAVE LASTED FOR
            SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...ROUTE 42 WAS FLOODED NEAR
            THE INTERSTATE 295 INTERCHANGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1801509

CMS

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