Tornado Warning 14, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

647 
WWUS51 KPBZ 022155
SVSPBZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
555 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

PAC051-059-022215-
/O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-181002T2215Z/
Greene PA-Fayette PA-
555 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
GREENE AND WEST CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTIES...
    
At 555 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Jefferson Boro, or near Waynesburg, moving east at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Fairdale around 610 PM EDT.
  Masontown around 615 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Bobtown, Isabella, Carmichaels, Rices Landing, Nemacolin, Clarksville
and Republic.

This includes  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 6
and 19.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to 
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. 

&&

LAT...LON 3985 8024 3993 8020 3999 8016 4000 8016
      3999 8013 3999 8005 3998 8005 3997 8004
      3998 8003 3998 8002 3999 7999 3998 7988
      3975 7995
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 287DEG 26KT 3989 8011 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
335 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic showers and thunderstorms will move through the region
today and tonight as a cold front approaches. A warming trend is
expected for the remainder of the week as upper high pressure
builds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393 has been issued to the sw of the
Tornado Watch, across ern OH and far swrn PA. Storms are
expected to develop along the advancing cold front and move into
the watch area during the next few hours. Tornado Watch 392
remains in effect. Previous discussion follows...

A low-amplitude shortwave trough will cross the Upper Ohio
Valley today. Ahead of this wave, a narrow plume of deeper
moisture will arrive preceding the system's cold front. Periodic
showers and storms can be expected throughout the day, with the
best chance during the afternoon and evening hours as the
surface boundary/upper wave near and heating will peak.

Shear and instability will be present, but cloud cover will be
the limiting factor for realizing potential instability. Breaks
in the cloud cover will offer the best chance to increase
atmospheric instability, but the duration may be insufficient
for a widespread severe weather threat.

Nevertheless, CAMs do indicate increasing storm coverage by
mid-afternoon, and any storms will mature in an environment with
strong DCAPE, a wide mid-level CAPE profile and a favorable
critical angle for sewd-moving discrete storms. Thus, all severe
weather threats are possible contingent on storm maturity.

The cold front will sag swd and will bring an end to most, if
not all, lingering showers. Modest PoPs were maintained in the
srn zones along the frontal boundary, which will stall as upper
support for its continued movement wanes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave ridging will limit rain potential on Wed, but
isolated showers remain possible near the stalled frontal
boundary, mainly in far-srn zones during peak heating. Any
convection will struggle as it fights a strengthening upper
ridge building nwd from the sern CONUS.

As a low-level jet strengthens and a positively-tilted upper
trough approaches Wed night, the stalled front will advance nwd.
The system's associated cold front will approach nwrn PA by Thu
morning. Given the strengthening ridge, overnight rain in the
warm sector appears unlikely despite the strong warm advection.

The cold front will cross the region on Thu and produce likely
rain showers, but may struggle to generate vigorous convection
as the nrn periphery of the upper ridge will be a detriment to
upward motion.

Temperatures thru much of the week will be warm in the upper
70s and low 80s (roughly 10F above seasonal average), owing to
the prolonged presence and amplification of the sern-CONUS H5
ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With a lack of upper-air support, the Thu front will lose its
swd push and is expected to stall in the Mid-Atlantic region on
Fri. A progressive and semi-active pattern appears probable
into the weekend as the region will remain on the nrn periphery
of an upper ridge. Thereafter, rain potential will be dependent
on a fight between the increasingly-assertive upper ridge and
any shortwave troughs in the swly flow aloft.

Temperature will remain above seasonal average into next week.
Consistency among models in an anomalously-strong upper ridge in
the Mid-Atlantic region has increased for early next week, which
suggests maxima could reach well into the 80s. In fact, sounding
climatology suggests that H5 height at Pittsburgh could near
record values.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR cigs and scattered showers/storms are expected through the
evening as a cold front brings impacts the region. Most of the
showers will end this evening, but low clouds look to hang
around into early Wednesday.

Outlook...
Widespread restrictions will be possible on Thursday with the
passage of another cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Update...Kramar

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
336 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

MDZ001-WVZ021-509>514-031945-
Garrett-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
336 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland and northern
West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The primary threat will be from damaging wind gusts, but
hail and a tornado also are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ041-050-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073-074-WVZ001-002-031945-
Columbiana-Jefferson-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-
Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Westmoreland-
Westmoreland Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-
336 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...TORNADO WATCH 392 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northwest
Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west central Pennsylvania,
western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and northern panhandle
of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The primary threat will be from damaging wind gusts, but
hail and a tornado also are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ039-040-048-049-057>059-068-069-PAZ031-075-076-WVZ003-004-012-
031945-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Coshocton-Harrison-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-
Noble-Monroe-Greene-Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
336 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and northern panhandle of West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The primary threat will be from damaging wind gusts, but
hail and a tornado also are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Kramar

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
442 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

PAZ021-073-022115-
Westmoreland-Allegheny-
442 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN ALLEGHENY AND SOUTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND COUNTIES...

At 442 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Clairton, or
near McKeesport, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bethel Park...                    Greensburg...
McKeesport...                     Jeannette...
West Mifflin...                   Baldwin...
South Park Township...            Jefferson Hills...
North Versailles...               Pleasant Hills...
White Oak...                      Clairton...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 51 and 57.
  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 63 and 82.

LAT...LON 4019 7986 4020 7987 4020 7991 4021 7994
      4021 7995 4023 7997 4024 7997 4024 7994
      4025 7992 4028 8000 4034 8001 4039 7953
      4017 7950
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 268DEG 25KT 4029 7989

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
444 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

PAZ015-016-022115-
Jefferson-Clarion-
444 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND EAST CENTRAL CLARION COUNTIES...

At 444 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Clarion, moving
east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarion...                        Brookville...
Reynoldsville...                  Strattanville...
Summerville...                    Limestone...
Corsica...                        Sigel...
Fisher...                         Clear Creek State Park...

This includes  Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 64
and 93.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so monitor local radio or television
stations for additional information and possible warnings from the
National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4107 7883 4111 7936 4128 7938 4134 7891
      4132 7887
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 262DEG 25KT 4119 7926

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
505 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

PAZ007-022130-
Mercer-
505 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WIND WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MERCER COUNTY...

At 505 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Greenville, or
14 miles northeast of Sharpsville, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and small hail are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville...                     Stoneboro...
Sandy Lake...                     Fredonia...
New Lebanon...                    Sheakleyville...
Maurice K Goddard State Park...

This includes  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 126
and 137.

LAT...LON 4128 8000 4135 8042 4149 8037 4148 8013
      4149 8012 4149 8000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 284DEG 32KT 4142 8030

SKH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
526 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH IRWIN             40.34N  79.71W
10/02/2018                   WESTMORELAND       PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROADWAY ALONG PAINTERTOWN RD. WIRES
            DOWN AND TRANSFORMER FIRE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1803582

MF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
531 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

PAZ008-009-015-022200-
Forest-Clarion-Venango-
531 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN VENANGO...NORTHERN CLARION AND NORTHWESTERN FOREST
COUNTIES...

At 531 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Oil City,
moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oil City...                       Sugarcreek...
Tionesta...                       Hasson Heights...
Rouseville...                     Pleasantville...
West Hickory...                   Oil Creek State Park...
East Hickory...

LAT...LON 4144 7976 4159 7976 4162 7941 4141 7938
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 269DEG 29KT 4151 7966

SKH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
538 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             2 SSW SOUTHWEST GREENSB 40.27N  79.56W
10/02/2018  E0.88 INCH       WESTMORELAND       PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1803583

JF