Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
639 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic showers and thunderstorms will move through the region
today and tonight as a cold front approaches. A warming trend is
expected for the remainder of the week as upper high pressure
builds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Severe thunderstorms continue, with several supercells
developing ahead of the cold front, that is progged to approach
tonight. Loss of heating should support weakening of storms here
over the next hour or two. However, the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch and Tornado watch remains in place, with an extension of
both to the south and east given recent radar trends. Bulk shear
and favored storm track maintain the threat for rotating
storms, and potential tornadogenesis.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave ridging will limit rain potential on Wed, but
isolated showers remain possible near the stalled frontal
boundary, mainly in far-srn zones during peak heating. Any
convection will struggle as it fights a strengthening upper
ridge building nwd from the sern CONUS.

As a low-level jet strengthens and a positively-tilted upper
trough approaches Wed night, the stalled front will advance nwd.
The system's associated cold front will approach nwrn PA by Thu
morning. Given the strengthening ridge, overnight rain in the
warm sector appears unlikely despite the strong warm advection.

The cold front will cross the region on Thu and produce likely
rain showers, but may struggle to generate vigorous convection
as the nrn periphery of the upper ridge will be a detriment to
upward motion.

Temperatures thru much of the week will be warm in the upper
70s and low 80s (roughly 10F above seasonal average), owing to
the prolonged presence and amplification of the sern-CONUS H5
ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With a lack of upper-air support, the Thu front will lose its
swd push and is expected to stall in the Mid-Atlantic region on
Fri. A progressive and semi-active pattern appears probable
into the weekend as the region will remain on the nrn periphery
of an upper ridge. Thereafter, rain potential will be dependent
on a fight between the increasingly-assertive upper ridge and
any shortwave troughs in the swly flow aloft.

Temperature will remain above seasonal average into next week.
Consistency among models in an anomalously-strong upper ridge in
the Mid-Atlantic region has increased for early next week, which
suggests maxima could reach well into the 80s. In fact, sounding
climatology suggests that H5 height at Pittsburgh could near
record values.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR cigs and scattered showers/storms are expected through the
evening as a cold front brings impacts the region. Most of the
showers will end this evening, but low clouds look to hang
around into early Wednesday.

Outlook...
Widespread restrictions will be possible on Thursday with the
passage of another cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
634 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

MDZ001-OHZ041-050-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001-
002-510>512-032245-
Garrett-Columbiana-Jefferson-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-
Clarion-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-
Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-
Brooke-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-
634 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...TORNADO WATCH 392 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west
central Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia
and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039-040-048-049-057>059-068-069-WVZ003-004-012-021-509-032245-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Coshocton-Harrison-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-
Noble-Monroe-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
634 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northern
West Virginia and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

WVZ513-514-032245-
Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
634 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this evening. The
primary threat will be from damaging wind gusts, but hail and a
tornado also are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
613 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             CARMICHAELS             39.90N  79.98W
10/02/2018  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT VOLUNTEER FIRE
            DEPARTMENT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1803587

JF

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