Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
700 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 313PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Main concern comes late this afternoon/early tonight as broad mid
level trof and associated strong cold front move rapidly east
toward the region. MUCAPES greater than 2000 J/KG now streaming
northeast ahead of the surface front, with dew points into the mid
60s. Storms have initiated and quickly strengthened just west of
our forecast area. This general trend is expected to continue. As
storm coverage increases, a strongly sheared environment (around 50
kt of 0-6 km bulk shear) favors storm organization and the
general expectation is for numerous severe storms to develop along
and just ahead of the front during the next several hours. Given
the steep lapse rates across the region, large hail greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible in within these strong and
rotating updrafts.

Major concerns for widespread damaging wind threat as well as bow
segments evolve within the line. Low level winds from the ssw
will likely inhibit some of the inflow into the broken line of
storms, but still cannot rule out a few significant tornadoes
across the region given the other environmental parameters.
Actual storm movements could approach 50-60 mph in some cells.

Storms should sweep east to near the OH/MS river confluence zone
up toward the Wabash River valley by 00z (6-7 PM CDT) this
evening, then exit our e/se counties by 02-03Z as the cold front
passes through that region. Much colder air will quickly replace
the unusually warm/humid conditions now over the region. Blustery
nw winds of 15 to 25 MPH with higher gusts will usher the colder
air in and push temps down into the 30s by Wed morning. Though
strong winds should preclude any frost formation, some locations
in se MO/srn IL could receive a light freeze before the sun come
up.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Medium confidence in the extended especially early on in the
forecast. The timing of the models is in better agreement at least
through Saturday. By Sunday the models start to diverge with their
solutions.

The models do agree on a dry period starting Wednesday and
persisting through most of Friday. However winds will still be a
little gusty Wednesday in the cold fronts wake while the surface
high is centered over the plains. As the high drifts overhead
Thursday morning. This could result in frost for the region. Will
monitor this closely but will not go with a headline yet due to the
ongoing larger impact headlines currently in effect. The flow aloft
will remain northwest and spoke of energy reaches the area late
Friday with a surface reflection of a cold front. This system will
bring rainshowers to the area as early as Friday afternoon and
possibly change over to wintry mix as we approach midnight and
finally change over to all snow after midnight then ending early
Saturday morning. Saturday should be dry for most areas. Sunday is
where the models start to diverge with their solutions. The latest
GFS brings a short wave out of the northern plains as warm front
lifts from the south. The ECMWF keeps the system mainly north of the
area with just a glancing blow along the Interstate 64 corridor. As
we head into next week the models keep us mainly dry but if there is
any rain it should be light with very little impact. Will keep
temperatures well below normal through the rest of the forecast
after this afternoon. There may be several chances of frost and
possibly even a freeze in the extended. Again will monitor this
closely.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to
move along/east of the OH/Wabash River Valleys through 02Z. Sw
winds 15-25 mph with higher gusts will turn rapidly around to the
wnw at similar speeds after the front passes. Should be looking at
VFR cigs and gusty wnw winds through 06Z...then gusts should
subside. However winds will remain aoa 10 kts through mid morning
Wed.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...GM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-041000-

Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-
Franklin-Hamilton-White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-
Johnson-Pope-Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-
Vanderburgh-Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-
McCracken-Graves-Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-
Caldwell-Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

...MODERATE RISK of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The potential exists this afternoon into early tonight for a
significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including a few
significant tornadoes.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to form along a strong cold
front as it crosses southeast Missouri and southern Illinois this
afternoon. This line of storms will then sweep east across western
Kentucky and southwest Indiana later this afternoon and this
evening. Isolated severe storms will also be possible out ahead of
this main line this afternoon into the early evening.

Damaging winds...large hail and tornadoes will all be possible
hazards with this potentially significant event.

Outside of thunderstorms, south winds will be strong and gusty
today. A Wind Advisory is in effect for today for sustained winds
up to 25 mph with gusts from 40 to 45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Widespread frost is likely on Wednesday night, with low
temperatures right around freezing.

A light wintry mix of precipitation is possible on Friday night,
with little or no accumulation. Freezing temperatures are likely
Friday night, generally in the upper 20s to around 30. Lows on
Saturday night will be near freezing in many areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon
into this evening.

MEFFERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
717 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TORNADO          2 E GALATIA             37.84N 88.58W
04/03/2018                   SALINE             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF TORNADO AND DAMAGE TO HOME IN THE GALATIA AREA.
            ...TORNADO UNCONFIRMED...9 HOMES DAMAGED ALONG HARPER
            ROAD. 3 TO 4 HOMES DESTROYED. 2 BARNS/POLEBARNS DAMAGED.
            ROOF OFF OF HOUSE ALONG BANK LICK ROAD.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
721 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     EAST PRAIRIE            36.78N 89.38W
04/03/2018                   MISSISSIPPI        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD MOVING EASTWARD. TELEPHONE POLES DOWN.

&&

SMITTY

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