Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
700 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 313PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Main concern comes late this afternoon/early tonight as broad mid
level trof and associated strong cold front move rapidly east
toward the region. MUCAPES greater than 2000 J/KG now streaming
northeast ahead of the surface front, with dew points into the mid
60s. Storms have initiated and quickly strengthened just west of
our forecast area. This general trend is expected to continue. As
storm coverage increases, a strongly sheared environment (around 50
kt of 0-6 km bulk shear) favors storm organization and the
general expectation is for numerous severe storms to develop along
and just ahead of the front during the next several hours. Given
the steep lapse rates across the region, large hail greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible in within these strong and
rotating updrafts.

Major concerns for widespread damaging wind threat as well as bow
segments evolve within the line. Low level winds from the ssw
will likely inhibit some of the inflow into the broken line of
storms, but still cannot rule out a few significant tornadoes
across the region given the other environmental parameters.
Actual storm movements could approach 50-60 mph in some cells.

Storms should sweep east to near the OH/MS river confluence zone
up toward the Wabash River valley by 00z (6-7 PM CDT) this
evening, then exit our e/se counties by 02-03Z as the cold front
passes through that region. Much colder air will quickly replace
the unusually warm/humid conditions now over the region. Blustery
nw winds of 15 to 25 MPH with higher gusts will usher the colder
air in and push temps down into the 30s by Wed morning. Though
strong winds should preclude any frost formation, some locations
in se MO/srn IL could receive a light freeze before the sun come
up.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Medium confidence in the extended especially early on in the
forecast. The timing of the models is in better agreement at least
through Saturday. By Sunday the models start to diverge with their
solutions.

The models do agree on a dry period starting Wednesday and
persisting through most of Friday. However winds will still be a
little gusty Wednesday in the cold fronts wake while the surface
high is centered over the plains. As the high drifts overhead
Thursday morning. This could result in frost for the region. Will
monitor this closely but will not go with a headline yet due to the
ongoing larger impact headlines currently in effect. The flow aloft
will remain northwest and spoke of energy reaches the area late
Friday with a surface reflection of a cold front. This system will
bring rainshowers to the area as early as Friday afternoon and
possibly change over to wintry mix as we approach midnight and
finally change over to all snow after midnight then ending early
Saturday morning. Saturday should be dry for most areas. Sunday is
where the models start to diverge with their solutions. The latest
GFS brings a short wave out of the northern plains as warm front
lifts from the south. The ECMWF keeps the system mainly north of the
area with just a glancing blow along the Interstate 64 corridor. As
we head into next week the models keep us mainly dry but if there is
any rain it should be light with very little impact. Will keep
temperatures well below normal through the rest of the forecast
after this afternoon. There may be several chances of frost and
possibly even a freeze in the extended. Again will monitor this
closely.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to
move along/east of the OH/Wabash River Valleys through 02Z. Sw
winds 15-25 mph with higher gusts will turn rapidly around to the
wnw at similar speeds after the front passes. Should be looking at
VFR cigs and gusty wnw winds through 06Z...then gusts should
subside. However winds will remain aoa 10 kts through mid morning
Wed.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...GM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-041000-

Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-
Franklin-Hamilton-White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-
Johnson-Pope-Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-
Vanderburgh-Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-
McCracken-Graves-Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-
Caldwell-Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

...MODERATE RISK of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The potential exists this afternoon into early tonight for a
significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including a few
significant tornadoes.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to form along a strong cold
front as it crosses southeast Missouri and southern Illinois this
afternoon. This line of storms will then sweep east across western
Kentucky and southwest Indiana later this afternoon and this
evening. Isolated severe storms will also be possible out ahead of
this main line this afternoon into the early evening.

Damaging winds...large hail and tornadoes will all be possible
hazards with this potentially significant event.

Outside of thunderstorms, south winds will be strong and gusty
today. A Wind Advisory is in effect for today for sustained winds
up to 25 mph with gusts from 40 to 45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Widespread frost is likely on Wednesday night, with low
temperatures right around freezing.

A light wintry mix of precipitation is possible on Friday night,
with little or no accumulation. Freezing temperatures are likely
Friday night, generally in the upper 20s to around 30. Lows on
Saturday night will be near freezing in many areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon
into this evening.

MEFFERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     EAST PRAIRIE            36.78N 89.38W
04/03/2018                   MISSISSIPPI        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD MOVING EASTWARD

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
649 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     SMITHLAND               37.14N 88.40W
04/03/2018                   LIVINGSTON         KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOCATED BETWEEN THE DAM AND THE COMMUNITY.

&&

SMITTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
657 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

ILZ091-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>003-006>016-018>020-040200-
HARDIN-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-
HICKMAN-CARLISLE-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-
LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-
MCLEAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ELIZABETHTOWN, FORT BRANCH, PETERSBURG,
POSEYVILLE, EVANSVILLE, BOONVILLE, ROCKPORT, HICKMAN, CLINTON,
BARDWELL, MAYFIELD, SMITHLAND, BENTON, MURRAY, MARION, EDDYVILLE,
CADIZ, PRINCETON, MORGANFIELD, DIXON, MADISONVILLE, HENDERSON,
OWENSBORO, AND CALHOUN
657 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will move across parts of West
Kentucky and Southwest Indiana this evening.

Strong thunderstorms...some severe...will move through this
evening. These storms will have the potential of producing one to
two inches of rain in a short period of time. With already
saturated ground and near bankfull or even flood water ways
across the region...additional flooding will be possible. Avoiding
travel is strongly encouraged unless you need to move to higher
ground for safety. Ponding on area roadways will be common and
present very hazardous driving conditions. Remember it is very
difficult to discern flooded roads at night until its too late.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
702 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N MATTHEWS            36.79N 89.58W
04/03/2018                   NEW MADRID         MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO STRUCTURES DOWN AS WELL AS POWER POLES ALONG STATE
            HIGHWAY FF NEAR CR820

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
706 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARION                  37.73N 88.94W
04/03/2018                   WILLIAMSON         IL   UTILITY COMPANY

            TIME UNKNOWN...399 CUSTOMERS LOST POWER THROUGHOUT THE
            COUNTY.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
709 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     TORNADO          SALEM                   37.27N 88.24W
04/03/2018                   LIVINGSTON         KY   PUBLIC

            TORNADO REPORTED NEAR THE COMMUNITY RELAYED THROUGH
            TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

SMITTY