Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
709 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

.AVIATION...
A line of strong to severe storms will move across most terminal
sites between 00z and 4z. The stronger storms may lower visibility
to around 1sm with mainly MVFR ceilings. More storms may develop
and move across the southern half of Oklahoma and western north
Texas mainly between 6z and 12z. After 12-13Z, mainly VFR
conditions are expected with a south to southwest wind.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 210 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Latest surface observations and satellite show enhanced cumulus
and some glaciation along a sharpening dryline now across the
eastern Texas Panhandle. Deeper convection has been ongoing for an
hour or so further north, near a weak surface front across the far
northern Texas Panhandle into the Oklahoma Panhandle. NSSL mobile
sounding at Elk City from 18z shows a weak capping EML and this
should continue to errode as forcing for ascent increases from
approaching deep closed low and embedded minor shortwave trough.

Latest RAP mesoanalysis shows moderate to strong instability has
already developed across western Oklahoma and western north Texas
with MLCAPE as high as 3,000 J/kg and effective shear of 50-60
knots. This parameter space, along with nearly perpendicular shear
vectors to the sharpening dryline, is more than favorable for
supercells. Other concerns include climatologically low LCL
heights. One mitigating factor to a potentially higher-end tornado
threat will be somewhat weak low level shear. Our bigger tornado
events tend to have larger 0-1km bulk shear and SRH values.
Nevertheless, 15-20 kt 0-1km shear and low LCLs with the
aforementioned parameter space is concerning and tornadoes,
including a few significant tornadoes are possible given the
proper storm evolution. Some cold pool expansion and resulting
consolidation may occur with the ongoing convection across
northeast Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle. This could
evolve into a cluster or line of convection that posses mainly a
damaging wind threat later in the evening across northern
Oklahoma. This evolution is uncertain at the moment and we'll
continue to monitor trends.

Suite of CAMs have varied some from run to run and model to
model. The spectrum of solutions generally supports the above
thinking, and we'll continue to watch the trends in observations
through the late afternoon and evening and add more detail to the
forecast when we can.

Regardless of how early on more discrete supercells evolve, some
tornado threat will persist into the night given such a moist
boundary layer with only modest stabilization. The threat could
persist into the early morning hours and some localized flooding
could occur particularly across eastern and southern sections of
the area once shear vectors become a little more parallel to a
potential cluster or line of convection. Depending on the extent
of convection and magnitude/breadth of convective overturning,
some thunderstorm threat and severe potential will persist across
roughly the southeast half of the area into tomorrow afternoon.

The rest of the forecast is relatively unchanged. Northwesterly
flow will gradually back and become more zonal with at least one
or two minor shortwaves resulting in convection by early next
week.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions could occur tomorrow afternoon
across far western Oklahoma and portions of north Texas. Greenup
may limit the threat of significant spread however. ERC-G values
are on the high end of normal currently.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  83  56  75 /  70  30  10   0
Hobart OK         66  86  55  77 /  50  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  86  60  75 /  70  40  10  10
Gage OK           61  81  50  76 /  30   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     69  85  54  75 /  70  30  10   0
Durant OK         70  78  66  73 /  70  70  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
728 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-040030-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
728 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms across parts
of central and southern Oklahoma, and northern Texas.

Location...
The enhanced risk area is along and east of a line from Okarche,
to Fort Cobb, to Loveland, Oklahoma, to Lake Kickapoo, Texas, and
west of a line from near Shawnee, to Ada, to Madill, Oklahoma.

Timing...
A line of severe thunderstorms will continue to move east across
central and southern Oklahoma, and northern Texas from 700 PM to
1100 PM.

Impacts...
The most common impacts will be large hail up to the size of
golf balls, and wind gusts up to 80 mph. Tornadoes will also
remain possible through about 900 PM, especially near and just
north of the Red River. Overnight, the most common impact will be
damaging wind gusts although embedded tornadoes cannot be ruled
out.

Discussion...
A line of severe thunderstorms will move across north Texas, and
central and southern Oklahoma through at least 1100 PM tonight.
The most likely impact from this storms will be damaging wind
gusts, although hail up to the size of golf balls and embedded
tornadoes will remain possible.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the Oklahoma and northern Texas should prepare for severe weather
operations today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be ongoing Thursday morning in central and
southern Oklahoma. As a dry line and front arrive, new
thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Oklahoma. Any of
these will be potentially severe. The most common impact will be
damaging wind gusts in the morning and damaging wind gusts and
large hail later in the day. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible. There is a low chance for non- severe thunderstorms in
southeastern Oklahoma Friday.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms next Tuesday.

.Fire Weather.
Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected to the west of
an advancing dry line over western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of
northern Texas during the day Thursday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
657 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL             GRACEMONT               35.19N 98.26W
05/02/2018  E1.25 INCH       CADDO              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
701 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             1 N LONE WOLF           35.00N 99.25W
05/02/2018  E1.75 INCH       KIOWA              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME TO GOLF BALL HAIL HWY 146 AND 2550.

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
714 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W GRANDFIELD          34.23N 98.74W
05/02/2018  M62.00 MPH       TILLMAN            OK   MESONET

&&

RBARNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
730 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

OKZ024-025-030100-
Oklahoma OK-Canadian OK-
730 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Oklahoma and
southeastern Canadian Counties Until 800 PM CDT...

AT 729 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of
Union City, moving east at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Western Oklahoma City, El Reno, Yukon, Bethany, Mustang, Warr Acres,
Woodlawn Park, Wiley Post Airport, Will Rogers Airport and The
Fairgrounds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 9753 3539 9755 3536 9786 3536 9787
      3535 9788 3535 9791 3543 9792 3549 9797
      3560 9765
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 261DEG 23KT 3541 9785

MAHALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
731 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND GST     KNOX CITY               33.42N 99.82W
05/02/2018  M87 MPH          KNOX               TX   MESONET

&&

MAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
732 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     TSTM WND GST     ODELL                   34.35N 99.42W
05/02/2018  M62 MPH          WILBARGER          TX   MESONET

&&

MAD