River Flood Warning 5, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
549 AM CDT Thu May 3 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs - VFR/MVFR ceilings possible this TAF period. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across parts of
the area this morning. Additional storms could also develop this
afternoon and affect parts of the area, although this could be SE
of any TAF sites so have left mention out of any TAFs at this
time. A cold front will move across the region tonight into Friday
morning causing winds to shift to the NW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 AM CDT Thu May 3 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Area of showers and storms will continue to move across portions of
the fa through the morning hours with the highest chances across the
southeast half or so of the fa. Some of the storms could be
strong/severe but widespread severe weather is not expected.

Upper trough/closed low over the 4 corners early this morning will
continue to move east today and Friday. Meanwhile, the dryline will
move east across the western third to half of the fa today. A cold
front will then move across the region tonight into Friday. With
moist airmass still in place across parts of the area, lift
associated with the upper system affecting the area, and the dryline
and cold front, additional showers/storms will be possible today and
tonight with rain chances gradually ending from NW to SE across a
good portion of the area with some lingering chances in far S/SE
portions of the fa Friday. Some of the storms this afternoon/evening
could be severe. However, the morning convection could have an
impact on this. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the main
concerns.

A dry weekend is expected with models showing an upper ridge
developing over the Rockies with NW flow over the Plains. Models
then show a shortwave affecting the area towards the middle of next
week which could bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to
parts of the fa.

Fire Weather...
Elevated to Near Critical conditions could be possible this
afternoon behind a dryline across portions of western OK and
western north TX. The greenup of vegetation could limit spread.
Will issue a fire danger statement (RFD).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  84  55  74  54 /  60  10  10  10
Hobart OK         86  54  77  52 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  88  59  76  55 /  50  20  10   0
Gage OK           81  50  76  50 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     85  53  75  51 /  50  10   0   0
Durant OK         81  67  72  56 /  70  40  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

09/25/01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
516 AM CDT Thu May 3 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-040915-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
516 AM CDT Thu May 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today in part of
Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas.

Location...
The slight risk is east of a line from Ponca City to El Reno to
Wichita Falls. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms is east
of a line from Cherokee to Clinton to Altus.

Timing...
Much of the day has the potential for severe thunderstorms. The
potential will end by midday in areas west of Altus, Vernon, and
Seymour.

Impacts... Damaging wind and large hail are the expected hazards.
Brief tornadoes are possible.

Discussion...
Another weak upper wave will move from western Texas into central
Oklahoma by midday. Several clusters of thunderstorms will move
northeast in advance of this wave in a moderately unstable
airmass. A dry line will move eastward across western Oklahoma
this morning and arrive to central sections by early afternoon.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of the
dry line aided by surface heating through the afternoon.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern
Texas should prepare for severe weather operations through the
day.

.Fire Weather...
Near-critical fire weather conditions will develop over western
Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas this afternoon to
the west of a dry line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Thunderstorms are possible Friday in southeastern Oklahoma and
also next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
419 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

OKZ030>032-030945-
Pottawatomie OK-Hughes OK-Seminole OK-
419 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Pottawatomie...
northwestern Hughes and Seminole Counties Until 445 AM CDT...

AT 419 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Castle to near Seminole, moving east at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Seminole, Holdenville, Wewoka, Wetumka, Maud, Bowlegs, Cromwell,
Yeager, Little and Lima.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 199 and 213.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 9627 3497 9678 3530 9677 3543 9666
      3544 9663 3540 9662 3540 9660 3541 9658
      3539 9654 3544 9657 3546 9654 3543 9651
      3543 9649 3546 9648 3546 9646 3545 9644
      3529 9644 3529 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0917Z 248DEG 35KT 3551 9639 3522 9664

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
423 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

TXZ083-084-087-031000-
Foard TX-Knox TX-Hardeman TX-
423 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Foard...northwestern Knox and
southern Hardeman Counties Until 500 AM CDT...

AT 421 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
11 miles south of Goodlett to 10 miles southeast of Guthrie, moving
east at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Quanah, Crowell, Benjamin, Margaret, Medicine Mound, Truscott,
Gilliland and Copper Breaks State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 10005 3424 10001 3423 10000 3431 9999
      3436 9951 3352 9971 3348 9999 3383 10000
      3384 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0921Z 250DEG 32KT 3417 9990 3354 10018

MBS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
545 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

OKZ037-038-044-TXZ086-090-031130-
Tillman OK-Cotton OK-Comanche OK-Clay TX-Wichita TX-
545 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR eastern Tillman...Cotton...
southwestern Comanche...northwestern Clay and central Wichita
Counties Until 630 AM CDT...

AT 544 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Hollister to 5 miles southwest of Devol, moving northeast at
65 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Burkburnett, Frederick, Walters, Cache, Grandfield, Chattanooga,
Randlett, Indiahoma, Devol, Faxon, Hollister, Loveland, Cookietown,
southwestern Fort Sill, Taylor, Charlie, Cashion and southern Wichita
Mountains Wildlife Refuge.

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 0 and 24.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3471 9866 3414 9815 3396 9877 3441 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1044Z 242DEG 54KT 3434 9887 3414 9864

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
555 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

TXZ086-089-090-031130-
Clay TX-Wichita TX-Archer TX-
555 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Clay...southeastern
Wichita and northeastern Archer Counties Until 630 AM CDT...

AT 554 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Holliday,
moving northeast at 65 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Wichita Falls, Henrietta, Iowa Park, Holliday, Petrolia, Byers, Dean,
Jolly, Sheppard AFB, northeastern Lake Arrowhead, Lakeside City,
Pleasant Valley, Charlie and Cashion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3374 9875 3397 9877 3413 9823 3412 9822
      3411 9817 3412 9815 3374 9808
TIME...MOT...LOC 1054Z 245DEG 56KT 3379 9867

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
606 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

OKZ026-031130-
Lincoln OK-
606 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR eastern Lincoln County Until 630
AM CDT...

AT 605 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Chandler to 3 miles southeast of Sparks, moving northeast at 55
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3551 9684 3576 9694 3592 9662 3555 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 1105Z 245DEG 48KT 3572 9684 3557 9678

..speg.