Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Norman, OK

019 
WWUS54 KOUN 022356
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
656 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

OKC015-017-051-030030-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-180503T0030Z/
Grady OK-Caddo OK-Canadian OK-
656 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN GRADY...EAST CENTRAL CADDO AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN
COUNTIES...

At 656 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles northeast of
Cogar, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Oklahoma City, El Reno, Yukon, Mustang, Piedmont, Union
City, Minco, Cogar, Cedar Lake and Richland.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 117 and 141.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 9767 3538 9767 3530 9825 3550 9817
      3565 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 254DEG 24KT 3541 9808 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MAHALE

563 
WWUS54 KOUN 030005
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
705 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

OKC015-017-051-030030-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-180503T0030Z/
Grady OK-Caddo OK-Canadian OK-
705 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN GRADY...NORTHEASTERN CADDO AND EASTERN CANADIAN
COUNTIES...

At 704 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles northwest of
Union City, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Oklahoma City, El Reno, Yukon, Mustang, Piedmont, Union
City, Minco, Cogar and Richland.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 117 and 141.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 9767 3538 9767 3531 9816 3551 9814
      3565 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 244DEG 25KT 3544 9801 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MAHALE

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
719 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

OKC015-030029-
/O.CAN.KOUN.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-180503T0030Z/
Caddo OK-
719 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CADDO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3552 9767 3538 9767 3533 9803 3548 9803
      3560 9775
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 258DEG 25KT 3538 9789 

$$

OKC017-051-030030-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-180503T0030Z/
Grady OK-Canadian OK-
719 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRADY AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTIES...

At 719 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Union City,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Western Oklahoma City, El Reno, Yukon, Mustang, Union City, Minco and
Richland.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 124 and 141.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 9767 3538 9767 3533 9803 3548 9803
      3560 9775
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 258DEG 25KT 3538 9789 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MAHALE

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Norman OK
210 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Latest surface observations and satellite show enhanced cumulus
and some glaciation along a sharpening dryline now across the
eastern Texas Panhandle. Deeper convection has been ongoing for an
hour or so further north, near a weak surface front across the far
northern Texas Panhandle into the Oklahoma Panhandle. NSSL mobile
sounding at Elk City from 18z shows a weak capping EML and this
should continue to errode as forcing for ascent increases from
approaching deep closed low and embedded minor shortwave trough.

Latest RAP mesoanalysis shows moderate to strong instability has
already developed across western Oklahoma and western north Texas
with MLCAPE as high as 3,000 J/kg and effective shear of 50-60
knots. This parameter space, along with nearly perpendicular shear
vectors to the sharpening dryline, is more than favorable for
supercells. Other concerns include climatologically low LCL
heights. One mitigating factor to a potentially higher-end tornado
threat will be somewhat weak low level shear. Our bigger tornado
events tend to have larger 0-1km bulk shear and SRH values.
Nevertheless, 15-20 kt 0-1km shear and low LCLs with the
aforementioned parameter space is concerning and tornadoes,
including a few significant tornadoes are possible given the
proper storm evolution. Some cold pool expansion and resulting
consolidation may occur with the ongoing convection across
northeast Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle. This could
evolve into a cluster or line of convection that posses mainly a
damaging wind threat later in the evening across northern
Oklahoma. This evolution is uncertain at the moment and we'll
continue to monitor trends.

Suite of CAMs have varied some from run to run and model to
model. The spectrum of solutions generally supports the above
thinking, and we'll continue to watch the trends in observations
through the late afternoon and evening and add more detail to the
forecast when we can.

Regardless of how early on more discrete supercells evolve, some
tornado threat will persist into the night given such a moist
boundary layer with only modest stabilization. The threat could
persist into the early morning hours and some localized flooding
could occur particularly across eastern and southern sections of
the area once shear vectors become a little more parallel to a
potential cluster or line of convection. Depending on the extent
of convection and magnitude/breadth of convective overturning,
some thunderstorm threat and severe potential will persist across
roughly the southeast half of the area into tomorrow afternoon.

The rest of the forecast is relatively unchanged. Northwesterly
flow will gradually back and become more zonal with at least one
or two minor shortwaves resulting in convection by early next
week.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions could occur tomorrow afternoon
across far western Oklahoma and portions of north Texas. Greenup
may limit the threat of significant spread however. ERC-G values
are on the high end of normal currently.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  68  83  56 /  20  70  30  10
Hobart OK         84  66  86  55 /  40  50  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  85  69  86  60 /  20  70  40  10
Gage OK           85  61  81  50 /  40  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     84  69  85  54 /  20  70  30  10
Durant OK         81  70  78  66 /  20  70  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

26/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031730-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1220 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms across parts of
northwestern. There is an enhanced or slight risk for severe
thunderstorms over much of the rest of central and southeastern
Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas.

Location...
The moderate risk area in northwest of a line from Alva to Taloga
to Hammon to Reydon. The enhanced risk covers the area south and
east of the moderate risk, and west and of a line from Stillwater
to Oklahoma City to Duncan Oklahoma to Electra Texas and north of
a line from Electra to Grayback to Quanah Texas. The slight risk
covers the remainder of western north Texas and that part of
Oklahoma east of the enhanced risk and west of a line from
Holdenville to Marietta.

Timing...Severe thunderstorms may develop in western Oklahoma as
early as 2 PM. The severe risk will extend through the night
across much of the area.

Impacts...
The most common impact this afternoon and evening will be very
large hail to the size of softballs and wind gusts to 80 mph.
There is a medium tornado potential in the enhanced and moderate
risk areas of western, central and northern Oklahoma where strong
tornadoes are possible. Overnight, the most common impact will be
damaging wind gusts.

Discussion...
Scattered severe supercell thunderstorms are expected to form
along a dry line in the eastern Texas panhandle and western
Oklahoma in the early to mid part of the afternoon. Through the
afternoon, the storms will continue to develop farther south along
the dryline across southwestern Oklahoma and perhaps into the
western portions of north Texas. Instability will be very high
along with favorable wind fields for severe storms to form
quickly. Hail larger than baseballs can be expected with the
strongest storms. The strength of the vertical wind shear and high
instability will support the potential for tornado formation, and
the chance for a strong tornado in the moderate or enhanced risk
area from mid afternoon into early evening. These storms will move
northeast across the area through the evening.

Overnight, another impulse from the larger storm system will
generate new thunderstorms across north Texas and central and
southern Oklahoma. These storms will likely develop into an
organized line of storms with some severe storms possible. The
most likely impact from this storms will be damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the Oklahoma and northern Texas should prepare for severe weather
operations today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be ongoing Thursday morning in central and
southern Oklahoma. As a dry line and front arrive, new
thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Oklahoma. Any of
these will be potentially severe. The most common impact will be
damaging wind gusts in the morning and damaging wind gusts and
large hail later in the day. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible. There is a low chance for non- severe thunderstorms in
southeastern Oklahoma Friday.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms next Tuesday.

.Fire Weather.
Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected to the west of
an advancing dry line over western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of
northern Texas during the day Thursday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
549 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N VERNON              34.20N 99.29W
05/02/2018  E65 MPH          WILBARGER          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60 TO 70 MPH WINDS ESTIMATED.

&&

RBARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE FREDERICK          34.36N 98.97W
05/02/2018  M62 MPH          TILLMAN            OK   ASOS

&&

RBARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             DRUMMOND                36.30N 98.04W
05/02/2018  E1.50 INCH       GARFIELD           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RBARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ESE LONE WOLF         34.96N 99.16W
05/02/2018  E60 MPH          KIOWA              OK   PUBLIC

            12 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN AS WELL.

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE FREDERICK          34.36N 98.97W
05/02/2018  E74 MPH          TILLMAN            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

RBARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSE FREDERICK         34.32N 98.98W
05/02/2018  M106 MPH         TILLMAN            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED WITH A DAVIS VANTAGEVUE INSTRUMENT.

&&

RBARNES