Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Norman, OK

224 
WWUS54 KOUN 022226
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
526 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

OKC031-065-075-141-022300-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-180502T2300Z/
Comanche OK-Jackson OK-Kiowa OK-Tillman OK-
526 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE...EAST CENTRAL JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA
AND NORTHERN TILLMAN COUNTIES...

At 525 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Tipton, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Lawton, Cache, Snyder, Tipton, Mountain Park, Indiahoma,
Manitou, Headrick, Cooperton, Tom Steed Reservoir, southwestern Fort
Sill and Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3440 9913 3459 9919 3495 9880 3459 9843
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 247DEG 31KT 3452 9908 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

BRB

841 
WWUS54 KOUN 022252
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
552 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

OKC065-022302-
/O.CAN.KOUN.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-180502T2300Z/
Jackson OK-
552 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3492 9877 3459 9843 3449 9902 3465 9908
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 238DEG 36KT 3466 9880 

$$

OKC031-075-141-022300-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-180502T2300Z/
Comanche OK-Kiowa OK-Tillman OK-
552 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE...SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TILLMAN COUNTIES...

At 552 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest of
Indiahoma, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Lawton, Cache, Snyder, Mountain Park, Indiahoma,
Manitou, southwestern Fort Sill and Wichita Mountains Wildlife
Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3492 9877 3459 9843 3449 9902 3465 9908
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 238DEG 36KT 3466 9880 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

BRB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Norman OK
210 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Latest surface observations and satellite show enhanced cumulus
and some glaciation along a sharpening dryline now across the
eastern Texas Panhandle. Deeper convection has been ongoing for an
hour or so further north, near a weak surface front across the far
northern Texas Panhandle into the Oklahoma Panhandle. NSSL mobile
sounding at Elk City from 18z shows a weak capping EML and this
should continue to errode as forcing for ascent increases from
approaching deep closed low and embedded minor shortwave trough.

Latest RAP mesoanalysis shows moderate to strong instability has
already developed across western Oklahoma and western north Texas
with MLCAPE as high as 3,000 J/kg and effective shear of 50-60
knots. This parameter space, along with nearly perpendicular shear
vectors to the sharpening dryline, is more than favorable for
supercells. Other concerns include climatologically low LCL
heights. One mitigating factor to a potentially higher-end tornado
threat will be somewhat weak low level shear. Our bigger tornado
events tend to have larger 0-1km bulk shear and SRH values.
Nevertheless, 15-20 kt 0-1km shear and low LCLs with the
aforementioned parameter space is concerning and tornadoes,
including a few significant tornadoes are possible given the
proper storm evolution. Some cold pool expansion and resulting
consolidation may occur with the ongoing convection across
northeast Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle. This could
evolve into a cluster or line of convection that posses mainly a
damaging wind threat later in the evening across northern
Oklahoma. This evolution is uncertain at the moment and we'll
continue to monitor trends.

Suite of CAMs have varied some from run to run and model to
model. The spectrum of solutions generally supports the above
thinking, and we'll continue to watch the trends in observations
through the late afternoon and evening and add more detail to the
forecast when we can.

Regardless of how early on more discrete supercells evolve, some
tornado threat will persist into the night given such a moist
boundary layer with only modest stabilization. The threat could
persist into the early morning hours and some localized flooding
could occur particularly across eastern and southern sections of
the area once shear vectors become a little more parallel to a
potential cluster or line of convection. Depending on the extent
of convection and magnitude/breadth of convective overturning,
some thunderstorm threat and severe potential will persist across
roughly the southeast half of the area into tomorrow afternoon.

The rest of the forecast is relatively unchanged. Northwesterly
flow will gradually back and become more zonal with at least one
or two minor shortwaves resulting in convection by early next
week.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions could occur tomorrow afternoon
across far western Oklahoma and portions of north Texas. Greenup
may limit the threat of significant spread however. ERC-G values
are on the high end of normal currently.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  68  83  56 /  20  70  30  10
Hobart OK         84  66  86  55 /  40  50  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  85  69  86  60 /  20  70  40  10
Gage OK           85  61  81  50 /  40  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     84  69  85  54 /  20  70  30  10
Durant OK         81  70  78  66 /  20  70  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

26/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031730-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1220 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms across parts of
northwestern. There is an enhanced or slight risk for severe
thunderstorms over much of the rest of central and southeastern
Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas.

Location...
The moderate risk area in northwest of a line from Alva to Taloga
to Hammon to Reydon. The enhanced risk covers the area south and
east of the moderate risk, and west and of a line from Stillwater
to Oklahoma City to Duncan Oklahoma to Electra Texas and north of
a line from Electra to Grayback to Quanah Texas. The slight risk
covers the remainder of western north Texas and that part of
Oklahoma east of the enhanced risk and west of a line from
Holdenville to Marietta.

Timing...Severe thunderstorms may develop in western Oklahoma as
early as 2 PM. The severe risk will extend through the night
across much of the area.

Impacts...
The most common impact this afternoon and evening will be very
large hail to the size of softballs and wind gusts to 80 mph.
There is a medium tornado potential in the enhanced and moderate
risk areas of western, central and northern Oklahoma where strong
tornadoes are possible. Overnight, the most common impact will be
damaging wind gusts.

Discussion...
Scattered severe supercell thunderstorms are expected to form
along a dry line in the eastern Texas panhandle and western
Oklahoma in the early to mid part of the afternoon. Through the
afternoon, the storms will continue to develop farther south along
the dryline across southwestern Oklahoma and perhaps into the
western portions of north Texas. Instability will be very high
along with favorable wind fields for severe storms to form
quickly. Hail larger than baseballs can be expected with the
strongest storms. The strength of the vertical wind shear and high
instability will support the potential for tornado formation, and
the chance for a strong tornado in the moderate or enhanced risk
area from mid afternoon into early evening. These storms will move
northeast across the area through the evening.

Overnight, another impulse from the larger storm system will
generate new thunderstorms across north Texas and central and
southern Oklahoma. These storms will likely develop into an
organized line of storms with some severe storms possible. The
most likely impact from this storms will be damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the Oklahoma and northern Texas should prepare for severe weather
operations today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be ongoing Thursday morning in central and
southern Oklahoma. As a dry line and front arrive, new
thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Oklahoma. Any of
these will be potentially severe. The most common impact will be
damaging wind gusts in the morning and damaging wind gusts and
large hail later in the day. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible. There is a low chance for non- severe thunderstorms in
southeastern Oklahoma Friday.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms next Tuesday.

.Fire Weather.
Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected to the west of
an advancing dry line over western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of
northern Texas during the day Thursday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
420 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             5 SSW MANGUM            34.81N 99.55W
05/02/2018  E1.75 INCH       GREER              OK   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
442 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             3 W CROWELL             33.98N 99.78W
05/02/2018  M0.88 INCH       FOARD              TX   PUBLIC

&&

MAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
450 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

TXZ087-022215-
Knox TX-
450 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR western Knox County Until 515 PM
CDT...

AT 449 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
12 miles southwest of Truscott to 16 miles southeast of Guthrie,
moving northeast at 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Benjamin and Truscott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Storm intensity is increasing and severe weather may develop rapidly.
Stay alert and listen for warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9999 3381 10000 3384 9997 3384 9984
      3382 9983 3383 9981 3382 9980 3382 9976
      3380 9975 3381 9974 3380 9973 3381 9972
      3380 9970 3382 9970 3382 9967 3349 9974
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 218DEG 38KT 3367 10000 3346 10012

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
456 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     TORNADO          1 S LONE WOLF           34.98N 99.25W
05/02/2018                   KIOWA              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO LASTED APPROXIMATELY 2 MINUTES.

&&

RBARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
504 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE ALTUS AIR FORCE BA 34.67N 99.28W
05/02/2018  M58 MPH          JACKSON            OK   AWOS

&&

RBARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
508 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             4 SE QUANAH             34.25N 99.69W
05/02/2018  E2.00 INCH       HARDEMAN           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

RBARNES