Severe Thunderstorm Warning 590, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
647 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Rain and thunderstorms will persist through Monday, more
widespread over the western third of Oklahoma. IFR conditions in
low ceilings are expected overnight north of a front in western
and northern Oklahoma, with MVFR conditions in most other areas
and continuing through the day Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A slow moving warm front will continue to lift across Central
Oklahoma, as an upper long wave trough will continue to approach
from the west. Rain showers behind the warm front will remain more
scattered through this evening across southeast into portions of
central Oklahoma. However the meridional flow aloft across
western Oklahoma will maintain widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms across our west and into northwest Oklahoma through
this evening. There is sufficient instability and marginal shear
for a few of the stronger storms to become severe, especially this
evening as a low level jet increases. A marginal risk is in place
across most of our area, with winds and flooding as the main
hazards.

Meanwhile, moisture from a strengthening tropical cyclone in the
Gulf of Mexico will continue to increase across the southern
plains for the next couple of days. The increasing moisture will
be interacting with the aforementioned upper trough as it starts
digging into our area early this week, maintaining periods of
showers and thunderstorms through at least Tuesday night.
Flooding will also be a hazard, with another 2-3 inches expected
in addition to todays rainfall. A cold front will begin moving
through late Thursday, ending the rain and bringing in much
unseasonably cooler air for the rest of the seven day period.

By Friday, an upper short wave will bring back chances for rain
into Saturday. However at this point, the atmosphere is expected
to remain stable enough to inhibit any thunderstorm development.
The rain chances also remain low, as sufficient moisture return is
in question.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  69  77  67 /  80  70  50  80
Hobart OK         73  68  75  63 /  80  80  80  90
Wichita Falls TX  80  70  80  68 /  80  70  60  80
Gage OK           63  59  72  56 /  80  80  80  80
Ponca City OK     70  67  80  68 /  80  80  50  80
Durant OK         82  70  82  70 /  80  30  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

26/09/09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
504 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-082215-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
504 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions
of Oklahoma and western north Texas through Monday morning. Some
of the storms could become strong to severe through 10 PM. Damaging
wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of ping pong balls,
and heavy rainfall are the main concerns. However, a funnel cloud
and/or brief tornado could also be possible with the strongest
storms.

.Heavy rain...
Heavy rainfall is likely through tonight, which could lead to
flooding and flash flooding in some areas, especially of low
lying and poorly drained areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across parts of Oklahoma
and north Texas through Tuesday. Strong to severe storms will be
possible at times, especially during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary hazards with any severe storms. Heavy rainfall associated
with the stronger storms could cause localized flooding.

After a brief break, thunderstorm chances return late this week.

.Heavy Rain...
Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is likely through Tuesday,
which could lead to flooding and flash flooding, especially of
low lying and poorly drained areas. The prolonged period of
moderate to heavy rains will also create elevated levels on
mainstem rivers.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
550 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

OKZ012-013-019-020-025-072315-
Garfield OK-Payne OK-Oklahoma OK-Logan OK-Noble OK-
550 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Garfield...west
central Payne...northwestern Oklahoma...Logan and southwestern Noble
Counties Until 615 PM CDT....

AT 547 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Perry to near Edmond, moving northeast at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3632 9768 3558 9766 3558 9731 3632 9728
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 204DEG 29KT 3623 9741 3563 9740

..speg.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
553 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     TORNADO          2 NW DAVIS              34.50N 97.16W
10/07/2018                   MURRAY             OK   STORM CHASER

&&

EM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
605 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

OKZ023-038-072330-
Caddo OK-Comanche OK-
605 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR south central Caddo and north
central Comanche Counties Until 630 PM CDT....

AT 602 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over southeastern
Fort Sill, moving north at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

LAT...LON 3456 9834 3459 9855 3491 9855 3487 9822
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 189DEG 18KT 3465 9844

..speg.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 S ROOSEVELT           34.73N 99.02W
10/07/2018                   KIOWA              OK   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLOOD WATERS FLOWING OVER HWY 183.

&&

TLINDLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 E ROOSEVELT           34.85N 98.88W
10/07/2018                   KIOWA              OK   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLOOD WATERS FLOWING OVER HWY 19. REPORTED BY ROOSEVELT
            MAYOR.

&&

TLINDLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
632 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

OKZ032-080000-
Hughes OK-
632 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Hughes County Until 700
PM CDT....

AT 629 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of
Gerty, moving north at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3507 9606 3505 9607 3505 9609 3477 9609
      3477 9630 3512 9639 3515 9606
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 174DEG 28KT 3481 9619

..speg.