Severe Thunderstorm Warning 586, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
404 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A slow moving warm front will continue to lift across Central
Oklahoma, as an upper long wave trough will continue to approach
from the west. Rain showers behind the warm front will remain more
scattered through this evening across southeast into portions of
central Oklahoma. However the meridional flow aloft across
western Oklahoma will maintain widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms across our west and into northwest Oklahoma through
this evening. There is sufficient instability and marginal shear
for a few of the stronger storms to become severe, especially this
evening as a low level jet increases. A marginal risk is in place
across most of our area, with winds and flooding as the main
hazards.

Meanwhile, moisture from a strengthening tropical cyclone in the
Gulf of Mexico will continue to increase across the southern
plains for the next couple of days. The increasing moisture will
be interacting with the aforementioned upper trough as it starts
digging into our area early this week, maintaining periods of
showers and thunderstorms through at least Tuesday night.
Flooding will also be a hazard, with another 2-3 inches expected
in addition to todays rainfall. A cold front will begin moving
through late Thursday, ending the rain and bringing in much
unseasonably cooler air for the rest of the seven day period.

By Friday, an upper short wave will bring back chances for rain
into Saturday. However at this point, the atmosphere is expected
to remain stable enough to inhibit any thunderstorm development.
The rain chances also remain low, as sufficient moisture return is
in question.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  77  67  73 /  70  50  80  90
Hobart OK         68  75  63  71 /  80  80  90  90
Wichita Falls TX  70  80  68  74 /  70  60  80  90
Gage OK           59  72  56  61 /  80  80  80  90
Ponca City OK     67  80  68  73 /  80  50  80  90
Durant OK         70  82  70  78 /  30  30  40  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for OKZ004>029-033>038-044.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ083>089.

&&

25/68

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
504 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-082215-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
504 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions
of Oklahoma and western north Texas through Monday morning. Some
of the storms could become strong to severe through 10 PM. Damaging
wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of ping pong balls,
and heavy rainfall are the main concerns. However, a funnel cloud
and/or brief tornado could also be possible with the strongest
storms.

.Heavy rain...
Heavy rainfall is likely through tonight, which could lead to
flooding and flash flooding in some areas, especially of low
lying and poorly drained areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across parts of Oklahoma
and north Texas through Tuesday. Strong to severe storms will be
possible at times, especially during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary hazards with any severe storms. Heavy rainfall associated
with the stronger storms could cause localized flooding.

After a brief break, thunderstorm chances return late this week.

.Heavy Rain...
Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is likely through Tuesday,
which could lead to flooding and flash flooding, especially of
low lying and poorly drained areas. The prolonged period of
moderate to heavy rains will also create elevated levels on
mainstem rivers.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
333 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

OKZ018-024-072100-
Kingfisher OK-Canadian OK-
333 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Kingfisher and
northern Canadian Counties Until 400 PM CDT....

AT 330 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
9 miles northeast of Geary to near Calumet, moving northeast at 35
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

LAT...LON 3559 9776 3547 9819 3574 9821 3576 9821
      3593 9788
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 243DEG 29KT 3570 9817 3558 9813

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
334 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

OKZ034>037-072100-
Kiowa OK-Tillman OK-Greer OK-Jackson OK-
334 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR western Kiowa...northwestern
Tillman...northeastern Greer and eastern Jackson Counties Until 400
PM CDT....

AT 333 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
3 miles northeast of Granite to Altus to 3 miles southwest of
Humphreys, moving northeast at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE... Hail up to one-half inch diameter... Wind gusts
to 50 MPH... Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

LAT...LON 3512 9931 3512 9908 3449 9899 3441 9932
      3443 9933 3504 9942
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 239DEG 14KT 3501 9934 3451 9927

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
421 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

OKZ042-043-047-072145-
Coal OK-Johnston OK-Pontotoc OK-
421 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Coal...northeastern
Johnston and southeastern Pontotoc Counties Until 445 PM CDT....

AT 419 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bromide, moving
northeast at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3438 9650 3443 9657 3470 9651 3461 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 203DEG 21KT 3446 9650

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
433 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

OKZ040-041-046-072200-
Carter OK-Garvin OK-Murray OK-
433 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Carter...south
central Garvin and west central Murray Counties Until 500 PM CDT....

AT 431 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Pooleville,
moving north at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3435 9730 3437 9743 3461 9744 3457 9717
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 195DEG 16KT 3441 9737

..speg.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
447 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ALTUS                   34.64N 99.33W
10/07/2018                   JACKSON            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAJOR STREET FLOODING IN THE CITY OF ALTUS.

&&

JT/FM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
452 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

OKZ052-072215-
Bryan OK-
452 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Bryan County Until 515 PM
CDT....

AT 451 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southeast of
Albany, moving north at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

LAT...LON 3386 9595 3385 9598 3387 9600 3386 9600
      3384 9602 3386 9603 3384 9604 3385 9610
      3383 9610 3384 9615 3382 9615 3381 9618
      3380 9618 3381 9616 3376 9618 3411 9624
      3411 9594 3394 9593
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 179DEG 21KT 3384 9608

..speg.