River Flood Warning 29, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
927 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated the POP & WX grids through this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increased POPs further to the East of our CWA through this morning to
be more representative of current radar trends. Lastest CAMs
guidance from the HRRR decreases the current rain across southeast
Oklahoma toward 18Z and through the afternoon hours, so decreased
rain chances there.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 618 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018/

AVIATION...
IFR to MVFR ceilings will prevail throughout the TAF period.
Showers will be widespread with embedded thunderstorms. Winds will
shift back to the south as the front lifts north.

Day

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Main concerns continue to be with heavy rainfall potential and to
a lesser degree, some isolated severe potential next couple of
days.

An area of heavy rainfall has already occurred across south
central Oklahoma overnight. This area should see a reprieve from
the heavier rainfall after this morning until possibly late
Tuesday. So for now will leave out of flood watch and continue to
monitor this area.

Focus for heavy rainfall will shift back west across western
Oklahoma and western north Texas later today and Monday as large
trough develops to our west. Trough opens up and shifts east and
northeast as we go through the day Tuesday. At that time expect to
see area of heavy rainfall shift east across the area.

Then expect a short period of drier weather before yet another
trough moves through the central part of the country, bringing
rain chances back to the area. Models have varying solutions as we
go into late this upcoming week into following weekend. Therefore
will not go too high with precip chances in any one period
beginning Thursday night, but maintain chance pops through much of
the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  69  77  67 /  80  70  50  70
Hobart OK         72  68  74  65 /  80  80  80  90
Wichita Falls TX  79  70  79  68 /  80  70  70  80
Gage OK           63  60  72  58 /  80  80  80  80
Ponca City OK     74  69  79  67 /  80  80  50  80
Durant OK         83  70  82  70 /  80  40  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for OKZ004>029-033>038-044.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ083>089.

&&

25/68

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
420 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-080930-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
420 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across Oklahoma
and western north Texas today and tonight. A few strong to severe
storms will be possible by late this afternoon as daytime heating
results in modest instability. The chance for a few severe storms
will continue this evening as a developing low level jet creates a
more favorable wind field. Damaging wind gusts and marginally
severe hail will be the main impacts. Heavy rainfall will also be
a concern.

.Heavy rain...
Heavy rainfall is likely today and tonight, which may lead to
flooding, especially of low lying and poorly drained areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Chances for thunderstorms will continue across much of Oklahoma
and north Texas through the middle of the week. Strong to severe
storms will be possible at times, especially during the late
afternoon and evening hours Monday and Tuesday.

Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards
with any severe storms. Heavy rainfall associated with the
stronger storms may cause localized flooding.

.Heavy Rain...
Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is likely through Tuesday,
which may lead to flooding, especially of low lying and poorly
drained areas. The prolonged period of moderate to heavy rains
will likely also create elevated levels on mainstem rivers.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
756 AM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNW BURKBURNETT       34.10N 98.57W
10/07/2018                   WICHITA            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE INTERSECTIONS WITH WATER FLOWING
            OVER THEM. AT LEAST ONE HIGH WATER RESCUE
            ONGOING.

&&

PW