Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
901 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated grids for this morning and afternoon to reflect better
chance of storms across parts of south central and southeast
Oklahoma as well as higher POPS through the morning for central
Oklahoma.  Clouds and precipitation will obviously influence
diurnal temperature trace today, especially along and
east of roughly highway 81.

By mid to late afternoon, an outflow may extend from parts of
southeastern Oklahoma into west central/northwestern
Oklahoma...per 12z HRRR.  Western part of this boundary may
have a decent chance of seeing strong to severe storms by the late
afternoon.  Overall confidence is not high however.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 604 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

AVIATION...
The large complex of thunderstorms over much of Kansas and
northern Oklahoma will probably continue its east-southeast
movement this morning before finally dissipating late this
morning. This will bring thunderstorms into KPNC around the start
of the forecast period, and storms will probably be in the
vicinity of KOKC (maybe even KOUN) during the early hours of the
forecast as well. Additional showers/thunderstorms are expected to
form this afternoon and evening. It is very difficult to nail
down locations and timing...at least until this evening, when
storms are more likely to form over western Oklahoma. These
storms, mainly after 21Z, will most likely affect KWWR and KCSM,
possibly points farther east later in the evening.

Outside thunderstorms, conditions should be breezy, but VFR.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The large MCS over Kansas is expected to continue to shift east
early this morning, mainly affecting extreme north-central
Oklahoma (and Kansas). There is a possibility that the complex
will turn to the south, following the mid-level winds. It is
unclear how well the storms would fare in the less-favorable
environment farther south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border, so PoPs
for that area this morning were held to about 20%.

Additional storms are expected to form this afternoon over western
Oklahoma and the Panhandles. Then, as the upper-level ridge begins
to build back over the region tonight, the rain chances will drop
accordingly. A few waves circling the ridge may still crank out
convection, particularly on Monday, and Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Given the difficulty of forecasting those types of
small features that far out, the confidence in the rain events
next week is quite low.

Temperatures will be fairly steady through the period, with
daytime highs and nighttime lows running a few degrees above the
seasonal average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  71  93  72 /  60  20  10  10
Hobart OK         97  72  97  73 /  30  40  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  99  74  97  74 /  10  20  10  10
Gage OK          100  69  97  71 /  20  30  10  20
Ponca City OK     87  71  92  71 /  80  20  10  20
Durant OK         91  72  91  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
430 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071900-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
430 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a risk of severe thunderstorms early this morning across
north-central Oklahoma, mainly north of Alva to Fairview to
Stillwater. Additional storms are expected to form this afternoon
and evening, and there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms,
generally north of a line from Marietta to Atoka, including
western north Texas.

.Heat...
Afternoon high temperatures will generally be in the 90s, with
heat indices around 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
There will be a chance of thunderstorms Friday, and again from
Sunday night through Wednesday night. There is a Marginal Risk of
severe thunderstorms Friday, north of a line from Cheyenne to
Watonga to Stillwater.

.Heat...
High temperatures in the 90s, with heat indices around 100 are
expected through early next week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
943 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

OKZ024-025-071515-
Oklahoma OK-Canadian OK-
943 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Oklahoma and east central
Canadian Counties Until 1015 AM CDT...

AT 940 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Edmond to near Yukon, moving southeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Oklahoma City, southern Edmond, Midwest City, Del City, Yukon,
Bethany, Choctaw, Warr Acres, The Village, Harrah, Spencer, Nichols
Hills, Jones, Nicoma Park, Tinker Air Force Base, Forest Park,
Woodlawn Park, Lake Aluma, Smith Village and The Capitol.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 9751 3553 9787 3568 9747 3560 9714
      3552 9714
TIME...MOT...LOC 1440Z 292DEG 19KT 3563 9749 3553 9775

MAHALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
946 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 AM     HAIL             4 NNW BETHANY           35.55N 97.67W
06/07/2018  E1.00 INCH       CANADIAN           OK   PUBLIC

&&

MAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
959 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNW WARR ACRES        35.56N 97.64W
06/07/2018                   OKLAHOMA           OK   PUBLIC

            STREET FLOODING UP TO 4-6 INCHES ESTIMATED.

&&

MAD

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