Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.AVIATION...
Main impact will be thunderstorms. Storms should exit KOUN within
the next hour or so. KLAW is next in line to be impacted. KSPS may
also see storms this afternoon, but confidence is not as high.
Another round of storms may impact southwest sites later this
evening, but confidence is not high enough to put in TAFs yet.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 901 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/

UPDATE...
Updated grids for this morning and afternoon to reflect better
chance of storms across parts of south central and southeast
Oklahoma as well as higher POPS through the morning for central
Oklahoma.  Clouds and precipitation will obviously influence
diurnal temperature trace today, especially along and
east of roughly highway 81.

By mid to late afternoon, an outflow may extend from parts of
southeastern Oklahoma into west central/northwestern
Oklahoma...per 12z HRRR.  Western part of this boundary may
have a decent chance of seeing strong to severe storms by the late
afternoon.  Overall confidence is not high however.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 604 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

AVIATION...
The large complex of thunderstorms over much of Kansas and
northern Oklahoma will probably continue its east-southeast
movement this morning before finally dissipating late this
morning. This will bring thunderstorms into KPNC around the start
of the forecast period, and storms will probably be in the
vicinity of KOKC (maybe even KOUN) during the early hours of the
forecast as well. Additional showers/thunderstorms are expected to
form this afternoon and evening. It is very difficult to nail
down locations and timing...at least until this evening, when
storms are more likely to form over western Oklahoma. These
storms, mainly after 21Z, will most likely affect KWWR and KCSM,
possibly points farther east later in the evening.

Outside thunderstorms, conditions should be breezy, but VFR.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The large MCS over Kansas is expected to continue to shift east
early this morning, mainly affecting extreme north-central
Oklahoma (and Kansas). There is a possibility that the complex
will turn to the south, following the mid-level winds. It is
unclear how well the storms would fare in the less-favorable
environment farther south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border, so PoPs
for that area this morning were held to about 20%.

Additional storms are expected to form this afternoon over western
Oklahoma and the Panhandles. Then, as the upper-level ridge begins
to build back over the region tonight, the rain chances will drop
accordingly. A few waves circling the ridge may still crank out
convection, particularly on Monday, and Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Given the difficulty of forecasting those types of
small features that far out, the confidence in the rain events
next week is quite low.

Temperatures will be fairly steady through the period, with
daytime highs and nighttime lows running a few degrees above the
seasonal average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  71  93  72 /  70  20  10  10
Hobart OK         97  72  97  73 /  40  40  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  20  10  10
Gage OK           98  69  97  71 /  20  30  10  20
Ponca City OK     84  71  92  71 /  80  20  10  20
Durant OK         89  72  91  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

06/10/14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
western Oklahoma and western north Texas. A marginal risk covers
the rest of Oklahoma and north Texas.

.Location...
The slight risk area is generally along and west of an Alva to
Frederick and Seymour Texas line. The rest of the area is included
in a marginal risk.

.Timing...
The most likely time for severe storms will be from 1 pm through
about midnight.

.Impacts...
Hail to the size of golf balls and winds to 70 mph will be
possible with the stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall is
also a concern with flooding possible.

.Discussion...
Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue
to develop along and ahead of an outflow boundary this afternoon
and evening. Unstable air ahead of the boundary will result in a
risk of severe storms, especially across southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas. Other storms are expected to develop across
the Texas Panhandle near a dryline. Storms that develop in
panhandle will move into western Oklahoma and western north Texas
during the evening

.Spotter and Emergency Management Statement...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
Oklahoma and western north Texas should be prepared for severe
weather operations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
There will be a chance of thunderstorms Friday, and again from
Sunday night through Wednesday night. There is a Marginal Risk of
severe thunderstorms Friday, north of a line from Cheyenne to
Watonga to Stillwater.

.Heat...
High temperatures in the 90s, with heat indices around 100 are
expected through early next week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1214 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

OKZ028>031-042-071745-
Pottawatomie OK-Pontotoc OK-Cleveland OK-McClain OK-Seminole OK-
1214 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Pottawatomie...
northwestern Pontotoc...southeastern Cleveland...southern McClain and
west central Seminole Counties Until 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1212 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Macomb to 6 miles southwest of Purcell, moving east at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Purcell, Slaughterville, Lexington, Maud, Wayne, Washington, Bowlegs,
Asher, Tribbey, Wanette, Byars, St. Louis, Etowah, Rosedale and
Trousdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 9693 3485 9742 3505 9761 3514 9714
      3515 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 273DEG 7KT 3514 9701 3495 9744

MAHALE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1229 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

OKZ027-028-040-071800-
Grady OK-Garvin OK-McClain OK-
1229 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR eastern Grady...northwestern
Garvin and southwestern McClain Counties Until 100 PM CDT...

AT 1227 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lindsay,
moving southeast at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Lindsay, Bradley, Antioch and Erin Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 9776 3494 9757 3468 9730 3468 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 332DEG 23KT 3484 9763

MAHALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S MOORE               35.29N 97.48W
06/07/2018                   CLEVELAND          OK   PUBLIC

            HIGH WATER FLOWING OVER INTERSECTION.

&&

MAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1244 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

OKZ023-027-038-071815-
Grady OK-Caddo OK-Comanche OK-
1244 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southern Grady...southeastern
Caddo and northeastern Comanche Counties Until 115 PM CDT...

AT 1243 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
4 miles southeast of Tabler to near Lake Ellsworth, moving southeast
at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...
Flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Northern Lawton, Chickasha, Elgin, Fletcher, Cyril, Sterling, Alex,
Cement, Agawam, eastern Fort Sill, Lake Ellsworth, Ninnekah and Acme.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 9846 3484 9844 3506 9776 3492 9767
      3490 9767
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 335DEG 8KT 3499 9778 3481 9833

MAHALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW SHAWNEE           35.34N 96.94W
06/07/2018                   POTTAWATOMIE       OK   PUBLIC

            FLASH FLOODING.

&&

MAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DALE                    35.39N 97.05W
06/07/2018                   POTTAWATOMIE       OK   PUBLIC

            TREE BRANCHES UP TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER
            BROKEN.

&&

MAD