Severe Thunderstorm Warning 312, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
901 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated grids for this morning and afternoon to reflect better
chance of storms across parts of south central and southeast
Oklahoma as well as higher POPS through the morning for central
Oklahoma.  Clouds and precipitation will obviously influence
diurnal temperature trace today, especially along and
east of roughly highway 81.

By mid to late afternoon, an outflow may extend from parts of
southeastern Oklahoma into west central/northwestern
Oklahoma...per 12z HRRR.  Western part of this boundary may
have a decent chance of seeing strong to severe storms by the late
afternoon.  Overall confidence is not high however.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 604 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

AVIATION...
The large complex of thunderstorms over much of Kansas and
northern Oklahoma will probably continue its east-southeast
movement this morning before finally dissipating late this
morning. This will bring thunderstorms into KPNC around the start
of the forecast period, and storms will probably be in the
vicinity of KOKC (maybe even KOUN) during the early hours of the
forecast as well. Additional showers/thunderstorms are expected to
form this afternoon and evening. It is very difficult to nail
down locations and timing...at least until this evening, when
storms are more likely to form over western Oklahoma. These
storms, mainly after 21Z, will most likely affect KWWR and KCSM,
possibly points farther east later in the evening.

Outside thunderstorms, conditions should be breezy, but VFR.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The large MCS over Kansas is expected to continue to shift east
early this morning, mainly affecting extreme north-central
Oklahoma (and Kansas). There is a possibility that the complex
will turn to the south, following the mid-level winds. It is
unclear how well the storms would fare in the less-favorable
environment farther south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border, so PoPs
for that area this morning were held to about 20%.

Additional storms are expected to form this afternoon over western
Oklahoma and the Panhandles. Then, as the upper-level ridge begins
to build back over the region tonight, the rain chances will drop
accordingly. A few waves circling the ridge may still crank out
convection, particularly on Monday, and Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Given the difficulty of forecasting those types of
small features that far out, the confidence in the rain events
next week is quite low.

Temperatures will be fairly steady through the period, with
daytime highs and nighttime lows running a few degrees above the
seasonal average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  71  93  72 /  60  20  10  10
Hobart OK         97  72  97  73 /  30  40  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  99  74  97  74 /  10  20  10  10
Gage OK          100  69  97  71 /  20  30  10  20
Ponca City OK     87  71  92  71 /  80  20  10  20
Durant OK         91  72  91  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
430 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071900-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
430 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a risk of severe thunderstorms early this morning across
north-central Oklahoma, mainly north of Alva to Fairview to
Stillwater. Additional storms are expected to form this afternoon
and evening, and there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms,
generally north of a line from Marietta to Atoka, including
western north Texas.

.Heat...
Afternoon high temperatures will generally be in the 90s, with
heat indices around 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
There will be a chance of thunderstorms Friday, and again from
Sunday night through Wednesday night. There is a Marginal Risk of
severe thunderstorms Friday, north of a line from Cheyenne to
Watonga to Stillwater.

.Heat...
High temperatures in the 90s, with heat indices around 100 are
expected through early next week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
829 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

OKZ019-020-025-026-071415-
Payne OK-Oklahoma OK-Logan OK-Lincoln OK-
829 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Payne...northeastern Oklahoma...
southeastern Logan and Lincoln Counties Until 915 AM CDT...

AT 826 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
6 miles southeast of Glencoe to 4 miles northwest of Agra to 5 miles
west of Fallis, moving east at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Edmond, Stillwater, Cushing, Chandler, Perkins, Stroud,
Langston, Yale, Luther, Davenport, Wellston, Carney, Glencoe, Tryon,
Ripley, Agra, Coyle, Sparks, Warwick and Kendrick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 9682 3616 9682 3616 9662 3560 9662
      3559 9696 3571 9736 3607 9728 3625 9685
TIME...MOT...LOC 1326Z 280DEG 20KT 3615 9685 3595 9692 3574 9722

MAHALE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
841 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

OKZ024-025-071415-
Oklahoma OK-Canadian OK-
841 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Oklahoma and
northeastern Canadian Counties Until 915 AM CDT...

AT 839 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over northwestern
Oklahoma City, moving east at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Oklahoma City, Yukon, Bethany, Warr Acres, The Village,
Piedmont, Woodlawn Park, Richland and Wiley Post Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 9757 3552 9784 3562 9790 3573 9754
      3572 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1339Z 268DEG 10KT 3560 9774

MAHALE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
851 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

OKZ025-026-030-071415-
Oklahoma OK-Pottawatomie OK-Lincoln OK-
851 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Oklahoma...
northwestern Pottawatomie and southwestern Lincoln Counties Until 915
AM CDT...

AT 850 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Harrah, moving
east at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Shawnee, Choctaw, Harrah, McLoud, Luther, Meeker, Dale, Newalla and
Aydelotte.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 9725 3565 9723 3567 9696 3551 9685
      3537 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 1350Z 270DEG 11KT 3552 9718

MAHALE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
853 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

OKZ023-027-038-071430-
Grady OK-Caddo OK-Comanche OK-
853 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR west central Grady...southeastern
Caddo and northeastern Comanche Counties Until 930 AM CDT...

AT 850 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Cement, moving
east at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Cyril, Cement and Laverty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3483 9824 3496 9827 3502 9804 3481 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 1350Z 260DEG 13KT 3492 9817

MAHALE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
926 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

OKZ025-071500-
Oklahoma OK-
926 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Oklahoma County
Until 1000 AM CDT...

AT 925 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over southwestern
Oklahoma City, moving east at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Oklahoma City, southeastern Edmond, Midwest City, Del City, Bethany,
Choctaw, Warr Acres, The Village, Spencer, Nichols Hills, Jones,
Nicoma Park, Valley Brook, Tinker Air Force Base, Forest Park, Lake
Aluma, Smith Village, The Capitol and The Fairgrounds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 9755 3554 9764 3564 9729 3538 9728
TIME...MOT...LOC 1425Z 269DEG 9KT 3545 9754

MAHALE